Climatic Change

, Volume 135, Issue 2, pp 297–310 | Cite as

Climate change and interpersonal violence: a “global” estimate and regional inequities

  • Dennis M. MaresEmail author
  • Kenneth W. Moffett


This study estimates the predicted impact of climate change on levels of violence in a sample of 57 countries. We sample western and non-western countries and perform a multilevel ARFIMA regression to examine if warmer temperatures are associated with higher levels of homicide. Our results indicate that each degree Celsius increase in annual temperatures is associated with a nearly 6 % average increase in homicides. Regional variation in this predicted effect is detected, for example, with no apparent effects in former Soviet countries and far stronger effects found in Africa. Such variation indicates that climate change may acutely increase violence in areas that already are affected by higher levels of homicides and other social dislocations.


Climate Change Land Surface Temperature Interpersonal Violence Homicide Rate Routine Activity Theory 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



The data used for this study are described and accessible through the Appendix and supplementary materials sections.

The research in this manuscript was supported by an internal seed grant received from Southern Illinois University Edwardsville by the corresponding author.

Supplementary material

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice StudiesSouthern Illinois University EdwardsvilleEdwardsvilleUSA
  2. 2.Department of Political ScienceSouthern Illinois University EdwardsvilleEdwardsvilleUSA

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