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In silico evaluation of plant genetic resources to search for traits for adaptation to climate change

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Abstract

Plant genetic resources display patterns resulting from ecological and co-evolutionary processes. Such patterns are instrumental in tracing the origin and diversity of crops and locating adaptive traits. With climate change and the anticipated increase in demand for food, new crop varieties will be needed to perform under unprecedented climatic conditions. In the present study, we explored genetic resources patterns to locate traits of adaptation to drought and to maximize the utilization of plant genetic resources lacking ex ante evaluation for emerging climate conditions. This approach is based on the use of mathematical models to predict traits as response variables driven by stochastic ecological and co-evolutionary processes. The high congruence of metrics between model predictions and empirical trait evaluations confirms in silico evaluation as an effective tool to manage large numbers of crop accessions lacking ex ante evaluation. This outcome will assist in developing cultivars adaptable to various climatic conditions and in the ultimate use of genetic resources to sustain agricultural productivity under conditions of climate change.

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Acknowledgments

The authors express their gratitude to CIMO (the Centre for International Mobility) and the Emil Aaltonen Foundation for their financial support to H.K.; to the University of Helsinki, the Niemi Foundation and the FP7 project Legume Futures (245216 CP-FP ‘Legume Futures: Legume supported cropping systems for Europe’) for support to H.K., M.J.S. and F.L.S.; and to NSERC Canada for partial funding of this research through Discovery Grants for support to Y.P.C. and S.D. We thank the many colleagues who helped in this research directly or indirectly and those who developed and compiled climate databases. This study was further supported by the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) Program of the CGIAR, Concordia University, and the Australian Grains Research & Development Cooperation (GRDC).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, PO Box 6299, Rabat Institutes, Rabat, Rabat, Morocco

    Abdallah Bari, Kenneth Street & Eddy De Pauw

  2. Crop Development Centre/Department of Plant Sciences, University of Saskatchewan, 51 Campus Drive, Saskatoon, SK, S7N 5A8, Canada

    Hamid Khazaei

  3. Department of Food and Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, PO Box 66 (Agnes Sjöbergin katu 2), Helsinki, FIN-00014, Finland

    Frederick L. Stoddard

  4. Department of Mathematical Sciences and Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, PO Box 3000, Oulu, FIN-90014, Finland

    Mikko J. Sillanpää

  5. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve Blvd. West, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada

    Yogen P. Chaubey

  6. Department of Biology, Centre for Structural and Functional Genomics and Loyola Centre for Sustainability Research, Concordia University, 7141 Sherbrooke West, Montreal, Quebec, H4B 1R6, Canada

    Selvadurai Dayanandan

  7. Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science, 1205 Dr. Penfield Avenue, Montreal, Quebec, H3A 2K6, Canada

    Selvadurai Dayanandan

  8. GBIF Norway, Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, PO Box 1172 Blindern, Oslo, Norway

    Dag T. F. Endresen

  9. Department of Plant Sciences, Mail Stop 3, University of California, One Shields Avenue, CA, 95616, USA

    Ardeshir B. Damania

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  1. Abdallah Bari
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  2. Hamid Khazaei
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  3. Frederick L. Stoddard
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  4. Kenneth Street
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  5. Mikko J. Sillanpää
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  7. Selvadurai Dayanandan
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  8. Dag T. F. Endresen
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  9. Eddy De Pauw
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  10. Ardeshir B. Damania
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Correspondence to Abdallah Bari.

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Bari, A., Khazaei, H., Stoddard, F.L. et al. In silico evaluation of plant genetic resources to search for traits for adaptation to climate change. Climatic Change 134, 667–680 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1541-9

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