Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Future changes in aerosol concentrations will influence the climate system over the coming decades. In this study we evaluate the equilibrium climate response to aerosol reductions in different parts of the world in 2050, using the global climate model EC-Earth. The aerosol concentrations are based on a set of scenarios similar to RCP6.0, developed using the IMAGE integrated assessment model and exploring stringent and weaker air pollution control. Reductions in aerosol concentrations lead to an increase in downward surface solar radiation under all-sky conditions in various parts of the world, especially in Asia where the local brightening may reach about 10 Wm−2. The associated increase in surface temperature may be as high as 0.5 °C. This signal is dominated by the reduced cooling effect of sulphate which in some areas is partially compensated by the decreased warming effect of black carbon. According to our simulations, the mitigation of BC may lead to decreases in mean summer surface temperature of up to 1 °C in central parts of North America and up to 0.3 °C in northern India. Aerosol reductions could significantly affect the climate at high latitudes especially in the winter, where temperature increases of up to 1 °C are simulated. In the Northern Hemisphere, this strong surface temperature response might be related to changes in circulation patterns and precipitation at low latitudes, which can give rise to a wave train and induce changes in weather patterns at high latitudes. Our model does not include a parameterization of aerosol indirect effects so that responses could be stronger in reality. We conclude that different, but plausible, air pollution control policies can have substantial local climate effects and induce remote responses through dynamic teleconnections.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Bellouin N, Rae J, Jones A, Johnson C, Haywood J, Boucher O (2011) Aerosol forcing in the climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) simulations by HadGEM2-ES and the role of ammonium nitrate. J Geophys Res 116, D20206. doi:10.1029/2011JD016074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond TC, Doherty SJ, Fahey DW et al (2013) Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment. J Geophys Res 118:1–173

    Google Scholar 

  • Boucher O, Randall D, Artaxo P et al (2013) Clouds and aerosols climate change 2013: the physical science basis, edited by Stocker TF et al pp. 571–657, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

  • Bouwman AF, Kram T, Klein Goldewijk K (2006) Integrated modelling of global environmental change an overview of IMAGE 2.4. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP), Bilthoven

    Google Scholar 

  • Chalmers N, Highwood EJ, Hawkins E, Sutton RT, Wilcox LJ (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid warming of near-term climate under RCP2.6. Geophys Res Lett 39, L18709. doi:10.1029/2012GL052848

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Charlson RJ, Langner J, Rodhe H, Leovy CB, Warren SG (1991) Perturbation of the northern hemispheric radiative balance by backscattering from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. Tellus 43AB:152–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Chuwah CD, van Noije T, van Vuuren DP, Hazeleger W, Strunk A, Deetman S, Mendoza Beltran A, van Vliet J (2013) Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the representative concentration pathways. Atmos Environ 79:787–801

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ et al (2011) The ERA-interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Q. J Roy Meteor Soc 137:553–597

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gillett NP, Von Salzen K (2013) The role of reduced aerosol precursor emissions in driving near-term warming. Environ Res Lett 8:034008

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Johnson D, Lacis A, Lebedeff S, Lee P, Rind D, Russell G (1981) Climate impact of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science 213:957–966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R et al (2005) Efficacy of climate forcing. J Geophys Res 110, D18104. doi:10.1029/2005JD005776

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hartmann DL, Klein Tank AMG, Rusticucci M et al (2013) Observations: atmosphere and surface climate change 2013. In: Stocker TF et al (eds) The physical science basis. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 159–254

    Google Scholar 

  • Hazeleger W, Wang X, Severijns C et al (2012) EC-Earth V2.2: description and validation of a new seamless Earth system prediction model. Clim Dyn 39:2611–2629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The steady linear responses of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiehl JT, Briegleb BP (1993) The relative roles of sulfate aerosols and greenhouse gases in climate forcing. Science 260:311–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kim D, Wang C, Ekman AML, Barth MC, Lee D-I (2014) The responses of cloudiness to the direct radiative effect of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols. J Geophys Res 119:1172–1185

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kloster S, Dentener F, Feichter J, Raes F, Lohmann U, Roeckner E, Fischer-Bruns I (2010) A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions. Clim Dyn 34:1177–1194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lamarque J-F, Bond TC, Eyring V et al (2010) Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos Chem Phys 10:7017–7039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levy H, Horowitz L, Schwarzkopf M, Ming Y, Golaz J, Naik V, Ramaswamy V (2013) The roles of aerosol direct and indirect effects in past and future climate change. J Geophys Res 118:4521–4532

    Google Scholar 

  • Madec G (2008) NEMO ocean engine. Note du Pôle de modélisation, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, France, No. 27 ISSN No. 1288–1619

  • Masui T, Matsumoto K, Hijoka Y et al (2011) An emission pathway for stabilization at 6 Wm−2 radiative forcing. Clim Chang 109:59–76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mickley LJ, Leibensperger EM, Jacob DJ, Rind D (2012) Regional warming from aerosol removal over the United States: results from a transient 2010–2050 climate simulation. Atmos Environ 46:545–553

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell JFB, Johns TJ, Gregory JM, Tett SFB (1995) Transient climate response to increasing sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases. Nature 376:501–504

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Niemeier U, Schmidt H, Alterskjær K, Kristjánsson JE (2013) Solar irradiance reduction via climate engineering--impact of different techniques on the energy balance and the hydrological cycle. J Geophys Res 118:11905–11917

    Google Scholar 

  • Persad GG, Ming Y, Ramaswamy V (2012) Tropical tropospheric-only responses to absorbing aerosols. J Clim 25:2471–2480

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rotstayn L, Collier M, Chrastansky A, Jeffrey S, Luo J (2013) Projected effects of declining aerosols in RCP4.5: unmasking global warming? Atmos Chem Phys 13:10883–10905

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rotstayn LD, Plymin EL, Collier MA et al (2014) Declining aerosols in CMIP5 projections: effects on atmospheric temperature structure and midlatitude jets. J Clim 27:6960–6977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sand M, Berntsen TK, Seland Ø, Kristjánsson JE (2013) Arctic surface temperature change to emissions of black carbon within Arctic or midlatitudes. J Geophys Res 118:7788–7798

    Google Scholar 

  • Screen JA, Simmonds I (2010) The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature 464:1334–1337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shindell D (2007) Local and remote contributions to Arctic warming. Geophys Res Lett 34, L14704. doi:10.1029/2007GL030221

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shindell DT, Faluvegi G (2009) Climate response to regional radiative forcing during the twentieth century. Nat Geosci 2:294–300

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shindell D, Schulz M, Ming Y, Takemura T, Faluvegi G, Ramaswamy V (2010) Spatial scales of climate response to inhomogeneous radiative forcing. J Geophys Res 115, D19110. doi:10.1029/2010JD014108

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shindell D, Lamarque J-F, Schulz M et al (2013) Radiative forcing in the ACCMIP historical and future climate simulations. Atmos Chem Phys 13:2939–2974

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sillmann J, Pozzoli L, Vignati E, Kloster S, Feichter J (2013) Aerosol effect on climate extremes in Europe under different future scenarios. Geophys Res Lett 40:2290–2295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93:485–498

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teng H, Washington WM, Branstator G, Meehl GA, Lamarque J-F (2012) Potential impacts of Asian carbon aerosols on future US warming. Geophys Res Lett 39, L11703. doi:10.1029/2012GL051723

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Jones PD, Ambenje P et al (2007) Observations: surface and atmospheric climate change. In: Solomon S et al (eds) In: climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp 235–336

    Google Scholar 

  • Valcke S (2013) The OASIS3 coupler: a European climate modelling community software. Geosci Model Dev 6:373–388

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Oldenborgh GJ, Drijfhout S, van Ulden A et al (2009) Western Europe is warming much faster than expected. Clim Past 5:1–12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wild M, Gilgen H, Roesch A et al (2005) From dimming to brightening: Decadal changes in solar radiation at Earth’s surface. Science 308:847–850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang Q, Bitz CM, Doherty SJ (2014) Offsetting effects of aerosols on Arctic and global climate in the late 20th century. Atmos Chem Phys 14:3969–3975

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yoshimori M, Broccoli AJ (2008) Equilibrium response of an atmosphere-mixed layer ocean model to different radiative forcing agents: global and zonal mean response. J Clim 21:4399–4423

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yuan X, Martinson DG (2000) Antarctic sea ice extent variability and its global connectivity. J Clim 13:1697–1717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zappa G, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Sansom PG,  Stephenson DB (2013)  A multi-model assessment of future projections of north Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the cmip5 climate models. J Clim 26:5846–5862

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work is part of the research programme ‘Feedbacks in the climate system’, which is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). The authors wish to thank Dr. G.J. van Oldenborgh (KNMI) for advise on the statistical analysis of their simulations.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE, De Bilt, The Netherlands

    Clifford Chuwah, Twan van Noije, Philippe Le Sager & Wilco Hazeleger

  2. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Clifford Chuwah & Detlef P. van Vuuren

  3. Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    Clifford Chuwah & Wilco Hazeleger

  4. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  5. Netherlands eScience Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Wilco Hazeleger

Authors
  1. Clifford Chuwah
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Twan van Noije
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Detlef P. van Vuuren
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Philippe Le Sager
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Wilco Hazeleger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Clifford Chuwah.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(DOCX 2099 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Chuwah, C., van Noije, T., van Vuuren, D.P. et al. Global and regional climate impacts of future aerosol mitigation in an RCP6.0-like scenario in EC-Earth. Climatic Change 134, 1–14 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1525-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1525-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation