Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century
- 3.7k Downloads
Timeseries of observed and projected sea level changes for the 20th and 21st century are analyzed at various coastal locations around the world that are vulnerable to climate change. Observed time series are from tide gauges and altimetry, as well as from reconstructions over the last 50 years. CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model output of regional sea-level and associated uncertainty estimates are merged with scenario-independent contributions from GIA and dynamic ice to provide time series of coastal sea-level projections to the end of the 21st century. We focus on better quantifying the regional departure of coastal sea level rise from its global average, identify the reasons for the regional departure, and quantify the reasons for the uncertainty in these regional projections. Many of these coastal sea level projections are lower than the global mean change in sea level due to glacial isostatic adjustment, and gravitational changes from loss of land ice and terrestrially stored ground water. In most coastal regions, local deviations from the global mean vary up to ±20 cm which, depending on the location, differ substantially in their underlying causes.
KeywordsTide Gauge Glacial Isostatic Adjustment Integral Time Scale Tide Gauge Data Vertical Land Motion
This work was funded in part through CliSAP Excellence Cluster of the University of Hamburg, funded through the DFG, the BMBF (Federal Ministry of Education and Science) Project RACE, and a Max Planck Society(MPG) Fellowship to D. Stammer. ABA Slangen was funded by NWO and KvK. The data are available from icdc.zmaw.de under Coastal Sea Level.
- Ballu V, Bouin M, Siméoni P, Crawford W C, Calmant S, Boré J, Kanas T, Pelletier B (2011) Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu). Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 108(32):13019–13022. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1102842108 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Church J A, Clark P, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield M, Milne G, RSNerem Nunn P, Payne A, Pfeffer W, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan A (2013a) Sea level change. In: Stocker T F, Qin D, Plattner G K, Tignor M, Allen S, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley P (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Church JA, Clark P, Cazenave A, Gregory J, Jevrejeva S, Levermann A, Merrifield M, Milne G, Nerem RS, Nunn P, Payne A, Pfeffer W, Stammer D, Unnikrishnan A (2013b) Sea level change supplementary material. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen S, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley P (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis, available from http://www.climatechange2013.organdwww.ipcc.ch
- Emery WJ, Thomson RE (2004) Data analysis methods in physical oceanography. Elsevier, AmsterdamGoogle Scholar
- Gregory JM, Church JA, Boer GJ, Dixon KW, Flato GM, Jackett DR, Lowe JA, O’Farrell SP, Roeckner E, Russell GL, Stouffer R J, Winton M (2001) Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100. Clim Dyn 18:225–240. doi: 10.1007/s003820100180 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Katsman C A, Sterl A, Beersma J J, van den Brink H W, Church J A, Hazeleger W, Kopp R E, Kroon D, Kwadijk J, Lammersen R, Lowe J, Oppenheimer M, Plag H P, Ridley J, von Storch H, Vaughan D G, Vellinga P, Vermeersen L L A, van de Wal RSW, Weisse R (2011) Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example. Clim Change 109:617–645. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Meehl G A, Stocker T F, Collins W D, Friedlingstein P, Gaye A, Gregory J, Kitoh A, Knutti R, Murphy J, Noda A, Raper S, Watterson I, Weaver A, Zhao Z C (2007) Global climate projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K B, Tignor M, Miller H L (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New YorkGoogle Scholar
- Moss R H, Edmonds J A, Hibbard K A, Manning M R, Rose S K, van Vuuren D P, Carter T R, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl G A, Mitchell J F B, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith S J, Stouffer R J, Thomson A M, Weynant J P, Wilbanks T J (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756. doi: 10.1038/nature08823 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) (2012) Tide gauge data. Retrieved 7 Aug 2012 from http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/
- Richter K, Marzeion B (2014) Earliest local emergence of forced dynamic and steric sea-level trends in climate models. Environ Res Lett 9:114009. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114009
- Zhang X, Church J A (2012) Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean. Geophys Res Lett 39(L21701). doi: 10.1029/2012GL053240