Abstract
The aim of this study is to characterize rainfall patterns in a vast transition zone between the Amazon and the Cerrado Biomes. The analysis is focused on annual and seasonal tendencies, mainly about the onset and offset of the rainy season, its length and shifts. More than 200 Rain Gauges (RGs) were analyzed in the study area using Pettitt’s and Mann-Kendall’s non-parametric tests allied to a Linear Regression Analysis over the period 1971–2010. The onset and offset dates of the rainy season and its duration are also identified for 89 RGs. Pettitt’s test indicates ruptures in 16 % of the rainfall time series while Mann-Kendall’s monthly test indicates that 45 % of the RGs had negative trends, mainly in the transition seasons (spring and austral autumn). Linear Regression Analysis indicates negative trends in 63 % of the time series concomitant to the rainy season onset and offset analysis, which confirmes a delay for the onset of the rainy season in 76 % of the RGs and a premature demise for 84 % of the RGs. Identification of the tendencies for rainy season duration indicates that the rainy season has become shorter at 88 % of the RGs. There were recurring patterns in the results displaying drier conditions in RGs localized in deforested areas opposed to forested locations.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
ANA Hidroweb (2012) http://Hidroweb.ana.gov.br/. Accessed 13 Jan 2012
Andreoli RV, Souza RAF, Kayano MT, Candido LA (2011) Seasonal anomalous rainfall in the central and eastern Amazon and associated anomalous oceanic and atmospheric patterns. Int J Climatol 32:1193–1205. doi:10.1002/joc.2345
Arvor D, Dubreuil V, Ronchail J, Simões M, Funatsu BM (2014) Spatial patterns of rainfall regimes related to levels of double cropping agricultural systems in Mato Grosso (Brazil). Int J Climatol 34:2622–2633. doi:10.1002/joc.3863
Betts R, Sanderson M, Woodward S (2008) Effects of large-scale amazon forest degradation on climate and air quality through fluxes of carbon dioxide, water, energy, mineral dust and isoprene philosophical. Philos Trans R Soc Lond 363(1498):1873–1880, ISSN 0962–8436
Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Silva EA, Liebmann Silva Dias PL (2011) The South American monsoon system and the 1970s climate transition. Int J Climatol 31:1248–1256. doi:10.1002/joc.2147
Cavalcanti I, Silveira V, Alves L (2013) Características atmosféricas e oceânicas em anos de seca. In: Borma S, Nobre C (org.) Secas na Amazônia: causas e consequências. São Paulo. Oficina de Textos. 367 p. ISBN 978-85-7975-078-6
Coelho C, Cavalcanti I, Ito E, Luz G, Santos A, Nobre C, Marengo J, Pezza A (2013) As secas de 1998, 2005 e 2010 - Análise Climatológica. In: Borma S, Nobre C (org.) Secas na Amazônia: causas e consequências. São Paulo. Oficina de Textos. 367 p. ISBN 978-85-7975-078-6
Costa MH (2004) Large-scale hydrologic impacts of tropical forest conversion. In: Bonell M, Bruijnzeel LA (eds) Forests–water–people in the humid tropics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Costa MH, Pires GF (2010) Effects of Amazon and Central Brazil deforestation scenarios n the duration of the dry season in the arc of deforestation. Int J Climatol 30(13):1970–1979
Costa MH, Yanagi SNM, Souza PJOP, Ribeiro A, Rocha EJP (2007) Climate change in Amazonia caused by soybean cropland expansion, as compared to caused by pastureland expansion. Geophys Res Lett 34, L07706. doi:10.1029/2007GL029271
Davidson E et al (2012) The Amazon basin in transition. Nature 481(7381):321–328
Debortoli N, Dubreuil V, Delahaye F, Rodrigues Filho S (2012) Análise Temporal do Período Chuvoso na Amazônia Meridional Brasileira (1971–2010). Rev GeoNorte 1:382–394
Debortoli N, Dubreuil V, Rodrigues Filho S (2013) Régime des pluies et déforestation en Amazonie Méridionale. Rennes, Université Rennes 2
Dubreuil V et al (2012) Impact of land-cover change in the southern amazonia climate: a case study for the region of alta floresta, mato grosso, brazil. Environ Monit Assess 184(2):877–891
Durieux L (2003) Étude des relations entre les caractéristiques géographiques de la surface et les nuages convectifs dans la région de l’arc de déforestation en amazonie. Dissertation, Université D’Aix-Marseille
Edwards P (2010) A vast machine: computer models, climate data, and the politics of global warming. MIT Press, Cambridge
Espinoza-Villar J (2009) Impact de la variabilité climatique sur l’hydrologie du basin amazonien. Dissertation, Université Paris 6
Fetter R, Oliveira C H, Saito C H (2012) A identificação de áreas homogeneas para a caracterização das chuvas no semiárido brasileiro. Revista Geonorte. Edição Especial 2. 1(5):27, 1–282
Foley JA and Costa MH (1999) Trends in the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon basin. J Geophys Res 104:14,189 –14,198
Fu R, Li W (2004) The influence of the land surface on the transition from dry to wet season in Amazonia. Theor Appl Climatol 78(1). 97 p. ISSN 0177-798X
Fu R, Zhu B, Dickinson E (1999) How do atmosphere and land surface influence seasonal changes of convection in the tropical amazon? J Clim 12(5). 1306 p. ISSN 0894–8755
Fu R, Yin L, Li W et al (2013) Increased dry-season length over southern Amazonia in recent decades and its implication for future climate projection. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 110(45):18110–18115. doi:10.1073/pnas.1302584110
Funatsu B, Dubreuil V, Claud C, Arvor D, Gan M (2012) Convective activity in Mato Grosso State (Brazil) from microwave satellite observations: comparisons between AMSU and TRMM datasets. J Geophys Res 177:1–16
Gan MA, Kousky VE, Ropelewski CF (2004) The South American monsoon circulation and its relationship to rainfall over west-central Brazil. J Clim 17:47–66. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0047:TSAMCA>2.0.CO;2
INPE-PRODES (2012) http://www.obt.inpe.br/prodes/index.php. Accessed 13 Jan 2012
Kodama YM (1992) Large-scale common features of subtropical precipitation zones (the Baiu frontal zone, the SPCZ and the SACZ), part I, Characteristics of sub-tropical frontal zones. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:813–836
Koren I, Martins JV, Remer LA, Afargan H (2008) Smoke invigoration versus inhibition of clouds over the Amazon. Science 321:946–949. doi:10.1126/science.1159185
Kousky VE, Gan MA (1981) Upper tropospheric cyclonic vortices in the tropical south Atlantic. Tellus 33A:538–550
Lean J, Bunton C, Nobre C, Rowntree P (1996) The simulated impact of amazonian deforestation on climate using measured abracos vegetation characteristics. In: Gash J, Nobre C, Roberts J, Victoria R (eds) Amazonian deforestation and climate. Wiley, Chichester, 549–576pp
Li W, Fu R (2006) Influence of Cold Air Intrusions on the Wet Season Onset over Amazonia. J Clim 19:257–275
Li W, Fu R, Fernandes K, Juarez RIN (2008) Observed change of the standardized precipitation index, its potential cause and implications to future climate change in the Amazon region. Philosophical transactions of the royal society: Biol Sci 363:1767–1772
Libiseller C, Grimvall A (2002) Performance of partial Mann–Kendall tests for trend detection in the presence of covariates. Environmetrics 13(1):71–84
Liebmann B, Marengo J (2001) Interannual variability of the rainy season and rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon Basin. J Clim 14(22):4308–4318
Liebmann B, Mechoso CR (2011) The South America Moonson System. In: Chang C-P, Ding Y, Lau GN-C, Johnson RH, Wang B, Yasunari T (eds) The Global Monsoon System: research and forecast, 2nd edn. World Scientific Publishing Co, Singapore, pp 421–454
Liebmann B et al (2007) Onset and end of the rainy season in South America in observations and the echam 45 atmospheric general circulation model. J Clim 20(10):2037–2050
Machado L et al (2004) Seasonal and diurnal variability of convection over the Amazonia: a comparison of different vegetation types and large scale forcing. Theor Appl Climatol 78:61–77, ISSN 0177-798X
Makarieva AM, Gorshkov VG, Sheil D, Nobre AD, Li BL (2013) Where do winds come from? A new theory on how water vapor condensation influences atmospheric pressure and dynamics. Atmos Chem Phys 13:1039–1056. doi:10.5194/acp-13-1039-2013
Malhi Y, Roberts JT, Betts RA, Killeen TJ, Li W, Nobre CA (2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319:169–172. doi:10.1126/science.1146961
Mann H (1945) Non parametric test against trend. Econometrika 13:245–259
Marengo J (2004) Interdecadal variability and trends of rainfall across the Amazon Basin. Theor Appl Climatol 78:79–96. doi:10.1007/s00704-004-0045-8
Marengo J (2006) On the hydrological cycle of the Amazon Basin: a historical review and current state-of-the-art. Rev Bras Meteorol 21(3):1–19
Marengo J et al (2001) Onset and end of the rainy season in the Brazilian amazon basin. J Clim 14(5):833–852
Marengo J, Soares W, Saulo C, Nicolini M (2004) Climatology of the LLJ east of the Andes as derived from the NCEP reanalyses. J Clim 17:2261–2280
Marengo J, Tomasella J, Alves LM, Soares WR, Rodriguez DA (2011) The drought of 2010 in the context of historical droughts in the Amazon region. Geophys Res Lett 38, L12703. doi:10.1029/2011GL047436
Molinier M et al (2009) Hydrological variability in the Amazon drainage basin and African Tropical basins. Hydrol Process 23:3245–3252. doi:10.1002/hyp.7400
Negri J, Anagnostou N, Adler F (2000) A 10-yr climatology of Amazonian rainfall derived from passive microwave satellite observations. J Appl Meteorol 39. ISSN 1558–8424
Nobre C, Sellers P, Shukla J (1991) Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J Clim 4:957–988
Nobre CA, Obregón GO, Marengo J, Fu R, Poveda G (2013) Characteristics of Amazonian climate: main features. In: Keller M, Bustamante M, Gash J, Silva Dias P (eds) Amazonia and global change. American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C. doi:10.1029/2009GM000903
Odekunle O (2003) Rainfall and the length of the growing season in Nigeria. Int J Climatol 24(4):467–479
Pettitt A (1979) A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem. Appl Stat 28:126–135
Rosenfeld D (1999) TRMM observed first direct evidence of smoke from forest fires inhibiting rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 26:3105–3108
Rosolem R (2005) O impacto do desmatamento no ciclo hidrológico: um estudo de caso para a rodovia cuiabá-santarém. Dissertation, Universidade de São Paulo
Satyamurty P, De Castro A, Tota J, Manzi A, Da Silva Gularte L (2010) Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades. Theor Appl Climatol 99:139–148
Schubert D, Suarez J, Pegion J et al (2004) Causes of long-term drought in the united states great plains. J Clim 17:485–503
Sheil D, Murdiyarso D (2009) How forests attract rain: an examination of a new hypothesis. Bioscience 4(59):341–347
Siqueira JR, Machado LAT (2004) Influence of the frontal systems on the day to day convection variability over South America. J Clim 17:1754–1766. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1754:IOTFSO>2.0.CO;2
Spracklen D, Arnold S, Taylor C (2012) Observations of increased tropical rainfall preceded by air passage over forests. Nature 489:282–286
Verburg R, Rodrigues Filho S, Lindoso DP, Debortoli N, Litre G, Bursztyn M (2014a) The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon. Land Use Policy 37:14–26
Verburg R, Rodrigues Filho S, Debortoli N, Lindoso DP, Nesheim I, Bursztyn M (2014b) Evaluating sustainability options in an agricultural frontier of the Amazon using multi-criteria analysis. Land Use Policy 37:27–39
Vila DA, De Goncalves LGG, Toll DL, Rozante JR (2009) Statistical evaluation of combined daily gauge observations and rainfall satellite estimates over continental South America. J Hydrometeorol 10:533–543
Virji H (1981) A preliminary study of summertime tropospheric circulation patterns over South America estimated from cloud winds. Mon Weather Rev 109:599–610
Yoon JH, Zeng N (2010) An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall. Clim Dyn 34:249–264. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0551-6
Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Battisti DS (1997) ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J Clim 10:1004–1020
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
ESM 1
(DOCX 103238 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
S. Debortoli, N., Dubreuil, V., Funatsu, B. et al. Rainfall patterns in the Southern Amazon: a chronological perspective (1971–2010). Climatic Change 132, 251–264 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1415-1
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1415-1