Climatic Change

, Volume 131, Issue 4, pp 677–689 | Cite as

Objective estimate of future climate analogues projected by an ensemble AGCM experiment under the SRES A1B scenario

  • Kenshi HibinoEmail author
  • Izuru Takayabu
  • Tosiyuki Nakaegawa


Climate analogues (CAs), regions whose present climates are similar to the future climate of a target place, are identified to assess the effects of climate change towards the end of the 21st century. The location of CAs and their present climates yield information that may be used to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change. Present (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) climates are projected in an ensemble experiment using the atmospheric general circulation model of the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan. The ensemble members consist of combinations of four distributions of sea surface temperature, three convection schemes, and two initial conditions. The emission scenario for greenhouse gases is A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A new method to identify the location of CAs is introduced, in which the uncertainty in the climate projection is taken into account. CAs for all land regions of the world are presented and those of four capital cities are analyzed in detail. The CAs are generally distributed equator-ward from the target places, consistent with the global warming. It is also found that ensemble experiments that encompass the uncertainty of climate projections can yield robust results for the CA and lead to reliable assessments of climate change.


Future Climate Root Mean Square Difference Similarity Score Ensemble Member Convection Scheme 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



We are thankful to Drs Mizuta and Yoshida of the Meteorological Research Institute for providing the results of the AGCMs analyzed in this paper. This research is supported by the SOUSEI program of MEXT, Japan.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  • Kenshi Hibino
    • 1
    Email author
  • Izuru Takayabu
    • 2
  • Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
    • 2
  1. 1.Faculty of Life and Environmental SciencesUniversity of TsukubaTsukubaJapan
  2. 2.Meteorological Research InstituteTsukubaJapan

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