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Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors

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Abstract

Integrated cross-sectoral impact assessments facilitate a comprehensive understanding of interdependencies and potential synergies, conflicts, and trade-offs between sectors under changing conditions. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of a European integrated assessment model, the CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform (IAP). The IAP incorporates important cross-sectoral linkages between six key European land- and water-based sectors: agriculture, biodiversity, flooding, forests, urban, and water. Using the IAP, we investigate the direct and indirect implications of a wide range of climatic and socio-economic drivers to identify: (1) those sectors and regions most sensitive to future changes, (2) the mechanisms and directions of sensitivity (direct/indirect and positive/negative), (3) the form and magnitudes of sensitivity (linear/non-linear and strong/weak/insignificant), and (4) the relative importance of the key drivers across sectors and regions. The results are complex. Most sectors are either directly or indirectly sensitive to a large number of drivers (more than 18 out of 24 drivers considered). Over twelve of these drivers have indirect impacts on biodiversity, forests, land use diversity, and water, while only four drivers have indirect effects on flooding. In contrast, for the urban sector all the drivers are direct. Moreover, most of the driver–indicator relationships are non-linear, and hence there is the potential for ‘surprises’. This highlights the importance of considering cross-sectoral interactions in future impact assessments. Such systematic analysis provides improved information for decision-makers to formulate appropriate adaptation policies to maximise benefits and minimise unintended consequences.

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Notes

  1. CLimate change Integrated assessment Methodology for cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe (www.climsave.eu)

  2. See ESM 5 for the regional sensitivity statistics.

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Acknowledgments

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme under Grant Agreement No. 244031 (The CLIMSAVE Project; Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe; www.climsave.eu). CLIMSAVE is an endorsed project of the Global Land Project of the IGBP. MT was in addition supported through project: ‘Building Up a Multidisciplinary Scientific Team Focussed on Drought’, no. CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK

    A. S. Kebede & R. J. Nicholls

  2. Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY, UK

    R. Dunford & P. A. Harrison

  3. School of Science and Computer Engineering, University of Houston-Clear Lake, 2700 Bay Area Blvd., Box 540, Houston, USA

    M. Mokrech

  4. Cranfield Water Sciences Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK

    E. Audsley & I. P. Holman

  5. Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    S. Rickebusch

  6. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, EH8 9XP, UK

    S. Rickebusch & M. D. A. Rounsevell

  7. Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Universitat autonoma de Barcelona, Edifici C, Bellaterra, 08193, Spain

    S. Sabaté & A. Sanchez

  8. Ecology Department, University of Barcelona, Diagonal 643, 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    S. Sabaté

  9. Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, Lund, 22362, Sweden

    F. Sallaba

  10. TIAMASG Foundation, Sfintii Voievozi 6, 010963, Bucharest, Romania

    C. Savin

  11. Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Zemědělská 1, Brno, 61300, Czech Republic

    M. Trnka

  12. Global Change Research Centre AS CR v.v.i, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00, Brno, Czech Republic

    M. Trnka

  13. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, 34109, Germany

    F. Wimmer

Authors
  1. A. S. Kebede
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  2. R. Dunford
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  3. M. Mokrech
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  4. E. Audsley
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  5. P. A. Harrison
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  6. I. P. Holman
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  7. R. J. Nicholls
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  8. S. Rickebusch
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  9. M. D. A. Rounsevell
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  10. S. Sabaté
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  11. F. Sallaba
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  12. A. Sanchez
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  13. C. Savin
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  14. M. Trnka
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  15. F. Wimmer
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to A. S. Kebede.

Additional information

This article is part of a Special Issue on “Regional Integrated Assessment of Cross-sectoral Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability” with Guest Editors Paula A. Harrison and Pam M. Berry.

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Kebede, A.S., Dunford, R., Mokrech, M. et al. Direct and indirect impacts of climate and socio-economic change in Europe: a sensitivity analysis for key land- and water-based sectors. Climatic Change 128, 261–277 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1313-y

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