Applying a capitals framework to measuring coping and adaptive capacity in integrated assessment models

Abstract

In Integrated Assessment modelling of climate change impacts and adaptation, there are two main uses for measures of capacity to adapt to climate change. The first is to represent the capacity for proactive adaptation: this can be termed adaptive capacity. The second is to represent the capacity for reactive or instantaneous coping: this can be termed coping capacity. Adaptive capacity helps to determine which proactive adaptation options are feasible as inputs to the models under any given pair of climate and socio-economic scenarios. Coping capacity represents the residual ability to react to conditions, and influences vulnerability under any given set of model outputs. Using the example of the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform, we explain how these capacities can be represented in integrated assessment. We demonstrate how an index of adaptive and coping capacity can be developed using a five-capitals (human, social, manufactured, natural, financial) model of societal wealth and incorporated in integrated assessment models. We find that for very aggregate applications, but not local or sectoral applications, the same indicators can be used to simulate adaptive and coping capacity. In addition, we argue that it is generally unnecessary to account for the depletion of capacity through adaptation itself, and that natural capital can generally be omitted from capacity measures if it is already directly represented in model outputs.