Climatic Change

, Volume 123, Issue 3, pp 461–476

Uncertainty in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) deployment projections: a cross-model comparison exercise

  • Barbara Sophia Koelbl
  • Machteld A. van den Broek
  • André P. C. Faaij
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
Article

DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1050-7

Cite this article as:
Koelbl, B.S., van den Broek, M.A., Faaij, A.P.C. et al. Climatic Change (2014) 123: 461. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-1050-7

Abstract

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can be a valuable CO2 mitigation option, but what role CCS will play in the future is uncertain. In this paper we analyze the results of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) taking part in the 27th round of the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) with respect to the role of CCS in long term mitigation scenarios. Specifically we look into the use of CCS as a function of time, mitigation targets, availability of renewables and its use with different fuels. Furthermore, we explore the possibility to relate model results to general and CCS specific model assumptions. The results show a wide range of cumulative capture in the 2010–2100 period (600–3050 GtCO2), but the fact that no model projects less than 600 GtCO2 indicates that CCS is considered to be important by all these models. Interestingly, CCS storage rates are often projected to be still increasing in the second half of this century. Depending on the scenario, at least six out of eight, up to all models show higher storage rates in 2100 than in 2050. CCS shares in cumulative primary energy use are in most models increasing with the stringency of the target or under conservative availability of renewables. The strong variations of CCS deployment projection rates could not be related to the reported differences in the assumptions of the models by means of a cross-model comparison in this sample.

Supplementary material

10584_2013_1050_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (279 kb)
ESM 1(PDF 278 kb)

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Barbara Sophia Koelbl
    • 1
  • Machteld A. van den Broek
    • 1
  • André P. C. Faaij
    • 1
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren
    • 1
    • 2
  1. 1.Copernicus Institute of Sustainable DevelopmentUtrecht UniversityUtrechtThe Netherlands
  2. 2.PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment AgencyBilthovenThe Netherlands

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