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Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old

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Abstract

A suggestion for mapping the SRES illustrative scenarios onto the new scenarios framework of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) is presented. The mapping first compares storylines describing future socio-economic developments for SRES and SSPs. Next, it compares projected atmospheric composition, radiative forcing and climate characteristics for SRES and RCPs. Finally, it uses the new scenarios matrix architecture to match SRES scenarios to combinations of RCPs and SSPs, resulting in four suggestions of suitable combinations, mapping: (i) an A2 world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP3, (ii) a B2 (or A1B) world onto RCP 6.0 and SSP2, (iii) a B1 world onto RCP 4.5 and SSP1, and (iv) an A1FI world onto RCP 8.5 and SSP5. A few other variants are also explored. These mappings, though approximate, may assist analysts in reconciling earlier scenarios with the new scenario framework.

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Notes

  1. One of a set of six IS92 scenarios published prior to SRES by the IPCC (Leggett et al. 1992).

  2. CMIP-3 results are available from the original data host site at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory (PCMDI – http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/about_ipcc.php) as well as from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC – http://www.ipcc-data.org/). Derivative information is also available for users from many national and international portals.

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Acknowledgment

The authors are grateful to Dr Michael Prather for helpful advice on comparing SRES and RCP representations of atmospheric composition and radiative forcing, Dr. Michiel Schaeffer for providing MAGICC-6 model output, and to three anonymous reviewers for their most insightful and constructive comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  2. Department of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Detlef P. van Vuuren

  3. Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Climate Change Programme, Helsinki, Finland

    Timothy R. Carter

Authors
  1. Detlef P. van Vuuren
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  2. Timothy R. Carter
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Correspondence to Detlef P. van Vuuren.

Additional information

This article is part of the Special Issue on “A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research” edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos.

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van Vuuren, D.P., Carter, T.R. Climate and socio-economic scenarios for climate change research and assessment: reconciling the new with the old. Climatic Change 122, 415–429 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0974-2

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