Abstract
Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.
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Notes
Aerosols can directly affect forcing as particles and indirectly affect forcing by facilitating formation of other elements that affect radiative forcing, such as clouds and troposhperic ozone.
Note that the overall EMF-27 study refers to RCP total forcing as AN3A forcing—total anthropogenic forcing minus the three excluded constituents.
Not all models reported PPP based income. Differences in PPP per capita GDP in China by the end of the century are $43,900 to $116,900.
Whether SO2 emission deviate from the reference starting in 2010 or 2020 depends on when the climate policy starts in each model.
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This article is part of the Special Issue on “The EMF27 Study on Global Technology and Climate Policy Strategies” edited by John Weyant, Elmar Kriegler, Geoffrey Blanford, Volker Krey, Jae Edmonds, Keywan Riahi, Richard Richels, and Massimo Tavoni.
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Rose, S.K., Richels, R., Smith, S. et al. Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios. Climatic Change 123, 511–525 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0955-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0955-5