Climatic Change

, Volume 133, Issue 1, pp 53–68 | Cite as

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

  • Joern Birkmann
  • Susan L. Cutter
  • Dale S. Rothman
  • Torsten Welle
  • Matthias Garschagen
  • Bas van Ruijven
  • Brian O’Neill
  • Benjamin L. Preston
  • Stefan Kienberger
  • Omar D. Cardona
  • Tiodora Siagian
  • Deny Hidayati
  • Neysa Setiadi
  • Claudia R. Binder
  • Barry Hughes
  • Roger Pulwarty
Article

Abstract

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

Supplementary material

10584_2013_913_MOESM1_ESM.docx (2.3 mb)
ESM 1(DOCX 2.26 MB)

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Joern Birkmann
    • 1
  • Susan L. Cutter
    • 2
  • Dale S. Rothman
    • 3
  • Torsten Welle
    • 1
  • Matthias Garschagen
    • 1
  • Bas van Ruijven
    • 4
  • Brian O’Neill
    • 4
  • Benjamin L. Preston
    • 5
  • Stefan Kienberger
    • 6
  • Omar D. Cardona
    • 7
  • Tiodora Siagian
    • 8
  • Deny Hidayati
    • 9
  • Neysa Setiadi
    • 1
  • Claudia R. Binder
    • 10
  • Barry Hughes
    • 3
  • Roger Pulwarty
    • 11
  1. 1.Institute for Environment and Human SecurityUnited Nations UniversityBonnGermany
  2. 2.Hazards and Vulnerability Research InstituteUniversity of South CarolinaColumbiaUSA
  3. 3.Pardee Center for International FuturesUniversity of DenverDenverUSA
  4. 4.National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)BoulderUSA
  5. 5.Climate Change Science InstituteOak Ridge National LaboratoryOak RidgeUSA
  6. 6.Interfaculty Department of Geoinformatics - Z_GISUniversity of SalzburgSalzburgAustria
  7. 7.Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Instituto de Estudios Ambientales (IDEA), Campus PalongrandeManizalesColombia
  8. 8.Statistics Indonesia (BPS)Government of IndonesiaJakartaIndonesia
  9. 9.Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)JakartaIndonesia
  10. 10.Department for GeographyUniversity of Munich (LMU)MunichGermany
  11. 11.Earth System Research LaboratoryNational Oceanic & Atmospheric AdministrationBoulderUSA

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