Climatic Change

, Volume 120, Issue 1–2, pp 357–374 | Cite as

Climate change impacts on global agriculture

  • Alvaro CalzadillaEmail author
  • Katrin Rehdanz
  • Richard Betts
  • Pete Falloon
  • Andy Wiltshire
  • Richard S. J. Tol


Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land will change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity provide a false appreciation of the nature of changes likely to occur. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. No matter which SRES scenario is preferred, we find that the expected losses in welfare are significant. These losses are slightly larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that national welfare is influenced both by regional climate change and climate-induced changes in competitiveness.


River Flow Climate Change Impact Irrigate Agriculture SRES Scenario Global Agriculture 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



We had useful discussions about the topics of this article with Korbinian Freier, Jemma Gornall and Uwe Schneider. We would like to thank Nele Leiner and Daniel Hernandez for helping arranging the data set. This article is supported by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany under the project "Food and Water Security under Global Change: Developing Adaptive Capacity with a Focus on Rural Africa," which forms part of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, by the Michael Otto Foundation for Environmental Protection, and by the Joint DECC and Defra Integrated Climate Programme – DECC/Defra (GA01101).

Supplementary material

10584_2013_822_MOESM1_ESM.doc (904 kb)
ESM 1 (DOC 904 kb)


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alvaro Calzadilla
    • 1
    Email author
  • Katrin Rehdanz
    • 1
    • 2
  • Richard Betts
    • 3
  • Pete Falloon
    • 3
  • Andy Wiltshire
    • 3
  • Richard S. J. Tol
    • 4
    • 5
    • 6
    • 7
  1. 1.Kiel Institute for the World EconomyKielGermany
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsChristian-Albrechts-University of KielKielGermany
  3. 3.Met Office Hadley CentreExeterUK
  4. 4.Department of EconomicsUniversity of SussexBrightonUK
  5. 5.Institute for Environmental StudiesVrije UniversiteitAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  6. 6.Department of Spatial EconomicsVrije UniversiteitAmsterdamThe Netherlands
  7. 7.Tinbergen InstituteAmsterdamThe Netherlands

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