ENSEMBLES-based assessment of regional climate effects in Luxembourg and their impact on vegetation
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Projected future regional climate changes in Luxembourg are assessed based on a six-member ensemble of regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES project. The key aspects are projected changes in air temperature and their impacts on vegetation. Up to now, there have been only few assessments of future climate conditions for Luxembourg. As agriculture is the dominant land use in Luxembourg, possible effects on crops and vegetation in general are highly relevant. Different RCMs at 25 km spatial and a daily temporal resolution, ranging from 1961 to 2100 based on the SRES A1B emission scenario are used. To reduce systematic biases in the RCM-derived time series, a bias correction is applied. Multi-model annual mean temperatures are projected to increase by 3.1 °C between the reference time span (1961 to 1990) and the far future (2069 to 2098). Clear change signals are found in seasonal bivariate frequency distributions of air temperature and precipitation. Derived impacts are an elongation of the thermal vegetation period by 6.2 days per decade due to an earlier onset in spring; growing degree day sums show a substantial increase leading to potentially better growth conditions; the earlier onset of the vegetation period causes an increase in late frost risk, especially in the near future (2021 to 2050) projections compared to the reference period.
KeywordsRegional Climate Model Ensemble Member Vegetation Period Regional Climate Model Output Regional Climate Model Ensemble
The RCM simulation results were produced in the framework of the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) Research Theme 2B and made available through the data portal of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) (http://ensemblesrt3.dmi.dk). The CHR-OBS hydrometeorological reference dataset has been provided by the International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine Basin (CHR) (http://www.chr-khr.org) in the context of its RheinBlick2050 project. In situ meteorological observations for the Findel airport station in Luxembourg were provided by the Service Météorologique of the airport administration. The scientific research presented in this publication has been given financial support by the National Research Fund of Luxembourg through grant FNR C09/SR/16 (project “CLIMPACT”); furthermore, parts of the study were financially supported by the REMOD projects of the Centre de Recherche Public – Gabriel Lippmann.
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