Advertisement

Climatic Change

, Volume 118, Issue 2, pp 213–226 | Cite as

Hydro-climatic effects of future land-cover/land-use change in montane mainland southeast Asia

  • Omer L. SenEmail author
  • Deniz Bozkurt
  • John B. Vogler
  • Jefferson Fox
  • Thomas W. Giambelluca
  • Alan D. Ziegler
Article

Abstract

Regional climate model simulations with RegCM3 were performed to investigate how future land-cover/land-use (LCLU) change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia (MMSEA) could affect regional climate. Simulation land-surface parameterizations included present day and plausible 2050 land-covers, as well as two extreme deforestation simulations. In the simulations, the original land cover map of RegCM3, based on AVHRR 1992–93 observations, was replaced with one obtained from MODIS 2001 observations; and the model was set to work at two different spatial resolutions using the sub-grid feature of the land surface model: 27.79 km for the atmosphere and 9.26 km for the land surface. During validation, modeled precipitation closely matched observed precipitation over southern China, but underestimated precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula. The plausible 2050 LCLU simulation predicted little change in regional climate. However, an extreme irrigated crop parameterization caused precipitation to increase slightly in the Indochina Peninsula, decrease substantially in southeastern China, and increase significantly in the South China Sea. The extreme short-grass parameterization caused substantial precipitation decreases in MMSEA, but few changes elsewhere. These simulations indicate in order for significant climatological changes to occur, substantially more LCLU conversion is required than the 16 % change we incorporated into the plausible 2050 land-cover scenario.

Keywords

Land Cover Latent Heat Flux Specific Humidity Irrigate Crop Indochina Peninsula 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Notes

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by NASA (#NNG04GH59G) and APN (ARCP2007-01CMY).

Supplementary material

10584_2012_632_MOESM1_ESM.pdf (157 kb)
ESM 1 (PDF 156 kb)
10584_2012_632_MOESM2_ESM.pdf (106 kb)
ESM 2 (PDF 106 kb)
10584_2012_632_MOESM3_ESM.pdf (375 kb)
ESM 3 (PDF 374 kb)
10584_2012_632_MOESM4_ESM.pdf (1.1 mb)
ESM 4 (PDF 1120 kb)
10584_2012_632_MOESM5_ESM.pdf (1.1 mb)
ESM 5 (PDF 1083 kb)

References

  1. Castro CL, Pielke RA Sr, Leoncini G (2005) Dynamical downscaling: assessment of value retained and added using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). J Geophys Res 110:D05108. doi: 10.1029/2004JDD004721 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Chen W, Jiang Z, Li L, Yiou P (2011) Simulation of regional climate change under the IPCC A2 scenario in southeast China. Clim Dyn 36:491–507CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Chotamonsak C, Salathe EP Jr, Kreasuwan J, Chantara S, Siriwitayakorn K (2011) Projected climate change over Southeast Asia simulated using a WRF regional climate model. Atmos Sci Let 12:213–219CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Chow KC, Chan JCL, Pal JS, Giorgi F (2006) Convection suppression criteria applied to the MIT cumulus parameterization scheme for simulating the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 33:L24709. doi: 10.1029/2006GL028026 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Dickinson RE, Henderson-Sellers A, Kennedy PJ (1993) Biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (bats) version 1e as coupled to the NCAR community climate model. Tech. rep., National Center for Atmospheric Research, ColoradoGoogle Scholar
  6. FAO (2010) The global forest resource assessment. FAO, RomeGoogle Scholar
  7. Foley JA, Levis S, Prentice IC, Pollard D, Thompson SL (1998) Coupling dynamic models of climate and vegetation. Glob Change Biol 4:561–579CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Fox JM, Vogler JB, Sen OL, Ziegler AD, Giambelluca TW (2012) Simulating land-cover change in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia. Environ Manage 49(5):968–979CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Gao XJ, Shi Y, Zhang DF, Wu J, Giorgi F, Ji ZM, Wang YG (2012) Uncertainties of monsoon precipitation projection over China: results from two high resolution RCM simulations. Clim Res 52:213–226. doi: 10.3354/cr01084 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Giambelluca TW, Tran LT, Ziegler AD, Menard TP, Nullet MA (1996) Soil-vegetation-atmosphere processes: simulation and field measurement for deforested sites in northern Thailand. J Geophys Res Atmos 101:25,867–25,885CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Giambelluca TW, Ziegler AD, Nullet MA, Dao TM, Tran LT (2003) Transpiration in a small tropical forest patch. Ag Forest Meteorol 117:1–22CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Giorgi F, Francisco R, Pal JS (2003) Effects of a subgrid-scale topography and land use scheme on the simulation of surface climate and hydrology. Part 1: effects of temperature and water vapor disaggregation. J Hydromet 4:317–333CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Grell G (1993) Prognostic evaluation of assumptions used by cumulus parameterizations. Mon Wea Rev 121:764–787CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Guardiola-Claramonte M, Troch PA, Ziegler AD, Giambelluca TW, Durcik M, Vogler JB, Nullet MA (2010) Modeling basin-scale hydrologic effects of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) in a tropical catchment. Ecohydrology 3(3):306–314CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Holtslag AAM, de Bruijn EIF, Pan H-L (1990) A high resolution air mass transformation model for short-range weather forecasting. Mon Wea Rev 118:1561–1575CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Hsie EY, Anthes RA, Keyser D (1984) Numerical simulation of frontogenesis in a moist atmosphere. J Atmos Sci 41:2581–2594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Kanae S, Oki T, Musiake K (2001) Impact of deforestation on regional precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula. J Hydrometeor 2:51–70CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003) Modern global climate change. Science 302:1719–1723CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Kiehl JT, Hack JJ, Bonan GB, Boville BA, Breigleb BP, Williamson D, Rasch P (1996) Description of the NCAR community climate model (CCM3). Tech. Rep. NCAR/TN-420 + STR. National Center for Atmospheric ResearchGoogle Scholar
  20. Nobre CA, Sellers PJ, Shukla J (1991) Amazonian deforestation and regional climate change. J Climate 4:957–988CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Pal J, Small E, Eltahir E (2000) Simulation of regional-scale water and energy budgets: representation of subgrid cloud and precipitation processes within regcm. J Geophys Res-Atmos 105(D24):29579–29594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Pal JS, Giorgi F, Bi XQ, Elguindi N et al (2007) Regional climate modeling for the developing world: the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88:1395–1409CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Pielke RA Sr, Adegoke J, Beltran-Przekurat A, Hiemstra CA, Lin J, Nair US, Niyogi D, Nobis TE (2007) An overview of regional land-use and land-cover impacts on rainfall. Tellus 59B:587–590Google Scholar
  24. Schneck R, Mosbrugger V (2011) Simulated climate effects of Southeast Asian deforestation: regional processes and teleconnection mechanisms. J Geophys Res 116:D11116. doi: 10.1029/2010JD015450 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Segal M, Pan Z, Turner RW, Takle ES (1998) On the potential impact of irrigated areas in North America summer rainfall caused by large-scale systems. J Appl Meteor 37:325–331CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Sen OL, Wang Y, Wang B (2004) Impact of Indochina deforestation on the East-Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 17:1366–1380CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Sen OL, Bozkurt D, Fox JM, Vogler JB, Giambelluca TW, Ziegler AD (2012) Projected impacts of global warming on regional climate in southeast Asia. Clim Dyn (forthcoming)Google Scholar
  28. Silva MES, Franchito SH, Rao VB (2006) Effects of Amazonian deforestation on climate: a numerical experiment with a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model with soil hydrology. Theoret Appl Clim 85:1–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Wang Y, Sen OL, Wang B (2003) A highly resolved regional climate model (IPRC_RegCM) and its simulation of the 1998 severe precipitation event over China. Part I: model description and control experiment. J Climate 16:1721–1738CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Wang Y, Leung LR, McGregor JL, Lee DK, Wang WC, Ding Y, Kimura F (2004) Regional climate modeling: progress, challenges, and prospects. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 82(6):1599–1628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Werth D, Avissar R (2005) The local and global effects of Southeast Asian deforestation. Geophys Res Lett 32:L20702. doi: 10.1029/2005GL022970 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Xie P, Arkin PA (1997) Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 78:2539–2558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Yatagai A, Kamiguchi K, Arakawa O, Hamada A, Yasutomi N, Kitoh A (2012) APHRODITE: constructing a long-term daily gridded precipitation dataset for Asia based on a dense network of rain gauges. Bull Am Meteorol Soc. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00122.1
  34. Zeng X, Zhao M, Dickinson RE (1998) Intercomparison of bulk aerodynamic algorithms for the computation of sea surface fluxes using TOGA COARE and TAO data. J Climate 11:2628–2644CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Zhang DF, Gao XJ, Ouyang LC (2008) Simulation of present climate over China by a regional climate model. J Trop Meteorol 14(1):19–23Google Scholar
  36. Ziegler AD, Fox JM, Xu JC (2009a) The rubber juggernaut. Science 324:1024–1025CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Ziegler AD, Bruun TB, Guardiola-Claramonte M, Giambelluca TW, Lawrence D, Lam NT (2009b) Environmental consequences of the demise in Swidden agriculture in SE Asia: geomorphological processes. Human Ecol 37:361–373CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Omer L. Sen
    • 1
    Email author
  • Deniz Bozkurt
    • 1
  • John B. Vogler
    • 2
  • Jefferson Fox
    • 3
  • Thomas W. Giambelluca
    • 4
  • Alan D. Ziegler
    • 5
  1. 1.Eurasia Institute of Earth SciencesIstanbul Technical UniversityIstanbulTurkey
  2. 2.Center for Applied GISUniversity of North CarolinaCharlotteUSA
  3. 3.East West CenterHonoluluUSA
  4. 4.Geography DepartmentUniversity of Hawai’i at MānoaHonoluluUSA
  5. 5.Geography DepartmentNational University of SingaporeSingaporeSingapore

Personalised recommendations