Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Reconstructed cool- and warm-season precipitation over the tribal lands of northeastern Arizona

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

For over a decade, the Hopi Tribe and Navajo Nation of northeastern Arizona have suffered the effects of persistent drought conditions. Severe dry spells have critically impacted natural ecosystems, water resources, and regional livelihoods including dryland farming and ranching. Drought planning and resource management efforts in the region are based largely on the instrumental climate record, which contains a limited number of severe, sustained droughts. In this study, a new network of moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies provides the basis for evaluating the longer-term temporal variability of precipitation in the Four Corners region. By analyzing the earlywood and latewood components within each annual tree ring, we are able to generate separate, centuries-long reconstructions of both cool- (October-April) and warm-season (July-August) precipitation. These proxy records offer new insights into seasonal drought characteristics and indicate that the instrumental record fails to adequately represent precipitation variability over the past 400 years. Through the use of two different analysis techniques, we identify multiyear and decadal-scale drought events more severe than any in the modern era. Furthermore, the reconstructions suggest that many of the historically significant droughts of the past (e.g., 17th century Puebloan drought) were not merely winter phenomena, but persisted through the summer season as well. By comparing these proxy records with historical documents, we are able to independently validate the reconstructions and better understand the socioeconomic and environmental significance of past climate anomalies on the tribal lands of northeastern Arizona.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams DK, Comrie AC (1997) The North American monsoon. B Am Meteorol Soc 78:2197–2213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benson LV, Petersen K, Stein J (2007) Anasazi (pre-Columbian Native American) migrations during the middle-12th and late-13th centuries—were they drought induced? Clim Chang 83:187–213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Biondi F, Kozubowski TJ, Panorska AK (2002) Stochastic modeling of regime shifts. Clim Res 23:23–30

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Box GEP, Tiao GC (1975) Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. J Am Stat Assoc 70:70–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradfield M (1971) The changing pattern of Hopi agriculture. Royal Anthropological Institute, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Brugge DM (1994) The Navajo-Hopi land dispute: an American tragedy. University of New Mexico Press, New Mexico

    Google Scholar 

  • Cable DR (1975) Influence of precipitation on perennial grass production in the semidesert Southwest. Ecology 56:981–986

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A et al (2007) Regional climate projections. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York, pp 847–940

    Google Scholar 

  • Cleaveland MK (1986) Climatic response of densitometric properties in semiarid site tree rings. Tree-Ring Bull 46:13–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Comstock JP, Ehleringer JR (1992) Plant adaptation in the Great Basin and Colorado plateau. West N Am Nat 52:195–215

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Peters K (1981) The smoothing spline: a new approach to standardizing forest interior tree-ring width series for dendroclimatic studies. Tree-Ring Bull 41:43–51

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Seager R, Cane MA, Stahle DW (2007) North American drought: reconstructions, causes, and consequences. Earth Sci Rev 81:93–134

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Seager R, Heim RR Jr, Vose RS, Herweijer C, Woodhouse C (2010) Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term palaeoclimate context. J Quaternary Sci 25:48–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daly C, Halbleib M, Smith JI, Gibson WP, Doggett MK, Taylor GH, Curtis J, Pasteris PP (2008) Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. Int J Climatol 28:2031–2064

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • D'Arrigo RD, Jacoby GC (1991) A 1000-year record of winter precipitation from northwestern New Mexico, USA: A reconstruction from tree-rings and its relation to El Niño and the Southern Oscillation. Holocene 1:95–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dean JS (1988) Dendrochronology and palaeoenvironmental reconstruction on the Colorado Plateaus. In: Gumerman GJ (ed) The Anasazi in a changing environment. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 119–167

    Google Scholar 

  • Donaldson TC (1893) Moqui Pueblo Indians of Arizona and Pueblo Indians of New Mexico. United States Census Printing Office, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Douglas MW, Maddox R, Howard K, Reyes S (1993) The Mexican monsoon. J Clim 6:1665–1667

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglass AE (1914) A method of estimating rainfall by the growth of trees. B Am Geogr Soc 46:321–335

    Google Scholar 

  • Eakin H, Conley J (2002) Climate variability and the vulnerability of ranching in southeastern Arizona: a pilot study. Clim Res 21:271–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ferguson DB, Alvord C, Crimmins M, Redsteer MH, McNutt C, Hayes M, Svoboda M, Pulwarty R (2011) Drought preparedness for tribes in the Four Corners region. Climate Assessment for the Southwest. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/publications/2085. Accessed 19 March 2012

  • Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Gray ST, Jackson ST, Betancourt JL (2004) Tree-ring based reconstructions of interannual to decadal scale precipitation variability for northeastern Utah since 1226 AD. J Am Water Resour Assoc 40:947–960

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griffin D, Meko DM, Touchan R, Leavitt SW, Woodhouse CA (2011) Latewood chronology development for summer moisture reconstruction in the US Southwest. Tree-Ring Res 67:87–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hackett CW (1937) Historical documents relating to New Mexico, Nuevo Vizcaya and approaches thereto, to 1773. Carnegie Institution of Washington Publication, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Hereford R, Webb R (1992) Historical variations of warm-season rainfall, southern Colorado Plateau, southwestern U.S.A. Clim Chang 22:239–256

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoover JW (1930) Tusayan: the Hopi Indian country of Arizona. Geogr Rev 20:425–444

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knaut AL (1997) The Pueblo revolt of 1680: conquest and resistance in seventeenth-century New Mexico. University of Oklahoma Press, Oklahoma

    Google Scholar 

  • Knutson CL, Hayes MJ, Svoboda MD (2007) Case study of tribal drought planning: the Hualapai Tribe. Nat Hazards Rev 8:125–131

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Levy JE (1992) Orayvi revisited: social stratification in an “egalitarian” society. School of American Research Press, Santa Fe

    Google Scholar 

  • Meko DM, Baisan CH (2001) Pilot study of latewood-width of conifers as an indicator of variability of summer rainfall in the North American monsoon region. Int J Climatol 21:697–708

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Michaelsen J (1987) Cross-validation in statistical climate forecast models. J Appl Meteorol 26:1589–1600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) (2006) Developing a drought plan: The Hopi Nation. National Drought Mitigation Center. http://drought.unl.edu/plan/HopiPlan.htm. Accessed 18 March 2012

  • Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources (NNDWR) (2003) Navajo Nation drought contingency plan. Navajo Nation Department of Water Resources. http://www.dnr.navajonsn.gov/Drought/images/drought_pln2003.pdf. Accessed 18 March 2012

  • Parks JA, Dean JS, Betancourt JL (2006) Tree rings, drought, and the pueblo abandonment of south-central New Mexico in the 1670 s. In: Doyel DE, Dean JS (eds) Environmental change and human adaptation in the ancient American southwest. University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, pp 214–227

    Google Scholar 

  • Pederson GT, Gray ST, Fagre DB, Graumlich LJ (2006) Long-duration drought variability and impacts on ecosystem services: a case study from Glacier National Park, Montana. Earth Interact 10:1–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ray AJ, Garfin GM, Wilder M, Vásquez-León M, Lenart M, Comrie AC (2007) Applications of monsoon research: opportunities to inform decision making and reduce regional vulnerability. J Clim 20:1608–1627

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rose MR, Dean JS, Robinson WJ (1981) The past climate of Arroyo Hondo, New Mexico reconstructed from tree rings. School of American Research Press, Santa Fe

    Google Scholar 

  • Salas JD, Delleur JW, Yevjevich V, Lane WL (1980) Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Water Resources Publications, Littleton

    Google Scholar 

  • Salzer MW, Kipfmueller KF (2005) Reconstructed temperature and precipitation on a millennial timescale from tree-rings in the Southern Colorado Plateau, USA. Clim Change 70:465–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sauer CO (1980) Seventeenth century North America. Turtle Island, Berkeley

    Google Scholar 

  • Schwinning S, Belnap J, Bowling DR, Ehleringer JR (2008) Sensitivity of the Colorado Plateau to change: climate, ecosystems, and society. Ecol Soc 13:28–47

    Google Scholar 

  • Sekaquaptewa H (1969) Me and mine: the life story of Helen Sekaquaptewa. University of Arizona Press, Tucson

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheppard PR, Wiedenhoeft A (2007) An advancement in removing extraneous color from wood for low-magnification reflected-light image analysis of conifer tree rings. Wood Fiber Sci 39:173–183

    Google Scholar 

  • Sheppard PR, Comrie AC, Packin GD, Angersbach K, Hughes MK (2002) The climate of the US Southwest. Clim Res 21:219–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • St. George S, Meko DM, Cook ER (2010) The seasonality of precipitation signals encoded within the North American drought Atlas. Holocene 20:983–988

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK, Grissino-Mayer HD et al (2009) Cool- and warm-season precipitation reconstructions over western New Mexico. J Clim 22:3729–3750

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephen AM (1936) The Hopi journals of Alexander M Stephen. Columbia University Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Therrell MD, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK, Villanueva Diaz J (2002) Warm season tree growth and precipitation over Mexico. J Geophys Res 107:4205–4213

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Titiev M (1944) Old Oraibi: a study of the Hopi Indians of the Third Mesa. Kraus Reprint, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Woodhouse CA, Meko DM, Allen C (2011) Millennial precipitation reconstruction for the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico, reveals changing drought signal. Int J Climatol 31:896–906

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weiss JL, Castro CL, Overpeck JT (2009) Distinguishing pronounced droughts in the southwestern United States: seasonality and effects of warmer temperatures. J Clim 22:5918–5932

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodhouse CA (2003) A 431-yr reconstruction of western Colorado snowpack from tree rings. J Clim 16:1551–1561

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woodhouse CA, Meko DM, MacDonald GM, Stahle DW, Cook ER (2010) A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:21283–21288

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office through grant NA07OAR4310382 with the Climate Assessment for the Southwest program at the University of Arizona, and by National Science Foundation award number 0823090. We are grateful to personnel of the U.S. National Park Service and to the Navajo Nation for facilitating tree-ring sampling on federal and tribal lands. Thanks to Tom Sheridan and Dale Brenneman for inspiring the use of historical documents, and to Daniel Ferguson and Alison Meadow for facilitating Hopi stakeholder collaboration. Many thanks to Paul Sheppard, Michael Crimmins and two anonymous reviewers for providing constructive feedback that improved this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, 105 West Stadium, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    Holly L. Faulstich, Connie A. Woodhouse & Daniel Griffin

  2. School of Geography and Development, University of Arizona, 409 Harvill Building, Tucson, AZ, 85721, USA

    Holly L. Faulstich, Connie A. Woodhouse & Daniel Griffin

Authors
  1. Holly L. Faulstich
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Connie A. Woodhouse
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Daniel Griffin
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Holly L. Faulstich.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(DOCX 584 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Faulstich, H.L., Woodhouse, C.A. & Griffin, D. Reconstructed cool- and warm-season precipitation over the tribal lands of northeastern Arizona. Climatic Change 118, 457–468 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0626-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0626-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation