Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on destination choice decisions in a context of domestic coastal tourism in Spain. Destinations are characterized in terms of travel cost and coastal ‘attractors’, such as temperature and beach-related attributes. By means of a discrete choice model based on the random utility theory, these variables are used to explain the observed pattern of interprovincial domestic trips, showing trade-offs between temperature and attractiveness in the probability of a particular destination being chosen. The model is used to investigate the impact of two climate change scenarios on the allocation of domestic tourism within Spain. The findings show that while Spain’s northern colder provinces would benefit from rising temperatures, provinces in the south would experience a decrease in the frequency of trips.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Full survey results can be downloaded at http://www.iet.tourspain.es/es-ES/estadisticas/familitur/informesdinamicos/paginas/anual.aspx (accessed on December 5th 2011)

  2. The characteristics (e.g. length, costs, means of transport, accommodation, etc.) of trips taken to local destinations (in the same province) tend to be different from the characteristics of interprovincial trips (and also from international trips). For this reason, it is quite common to consider that local and interprovincial destinations show different levels of substitution and, hence, cannot be mixed in the same choice-set. Consequently, all trips taken to the same province were excluded from the dataset to guarantee a plausible choice set composed by real substitute interprovincial alternatives shared by all individuals.

  3. This data can be downloaded at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/. Accessed on December 5th 2011.

  4. The correlation matrix including all explanatory variables is available from the authors upon request.

  5. The use of micro data can lead to serious heteroskedasticity problems in models explaining tourism expenditure or the number of tourism trips taken by households. However, the potential for heteroskedasticity in the context of discrete choice models is low. Additionally, following Munizaga et al. (2000), the models of the logit family (as the one used in the application) are able to recover accurately all parameters of the utility function even when heteroskedasticity is present.

References

  • Agnew MD, Palutikof JP (2001) Climate impacts on the demand for tourism. In: International Society of Biometeorology Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Climate, Tourism and Recreation. Retrieved from http://www.mif.uni-freiburg.de/isb/ws/report.htm

  • Agnew M, Palutikof J (2006) Impacts of short-term climate variability in the UK on demand for domestic and international tourism. Clim Res 21:109–120

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aguiló E, Alegre J, Sard M (2005) The persistence of the sun and sand tourism model. Tour Manage 26:219–231

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amelung B, Nicholls S, Viner D (2007) Implications of global climate change for tourism flows and seasonality. J Travel Res 45:285–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Becken S (2005) Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: the case of tourist resorts in Fiji. Glob Environ Chang 15:381–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ben-Akiva M, Lerman SR (1985) Discrete choice analysis: theory and application to travel demand. The MIT Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Bigano A, Hamilton J, Tol RSJ (2006a) The impact of climate holiday destination choice. Clim Chang 76:389–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bigano A, Hamilton J, Tol RSJ (2006b) The impact of climate change on domestic and international tourism: a simulation study. Nota di Lavoro 86.2006. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Mila. Italy

  • Bigano A, Hamilton JM, Lau M, Tol RSJ, Zhou Y (2004) A global database of domestic and international tourist numbers at national and subnational level. Research unit Sustainability and Global Change FNU-54. Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg.

  • Bujosa A, Riera A (2009) Environmental diversity in recreational choice modelling. Ecol Econ 68(11):2743–2750

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Correia A, Santos CM, Barros CP (2007) Tourism in Latin America. A choice analysis. Ann Tourism Res 34(3):610–629

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elsasser H, Bürki R (2002) Climate change as a threat to tourism in the Alps. Climate Res 20:253–257

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eugenio-Martín JL (2003) Modelling determinants of tourism demand as a five-stage process: a discrete choice methodological approach. Tourism Hospit Res 4(4):341–354

    Google Scholar 

  • Flato GM, Boer GJ (2001) Warming asymmetry in climate change simulations. Geophys Res Lett 28:195–198

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gable FJ (1997) Climate change impacts on Caribbean coastal areas and tourism. J Coast Res 27:49–70

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton JM, Tol RSJ (2006) The impact of climate change on tourism and recreation. In: Schlesinger M (ed) Human-induced climate change - an interdisciplinary assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 147–155

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton J, Tol RSJ (2007) The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study. Reg Environ Change 7:161–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton J, Maddison D, Tol R (2005a) Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Glob Environ Chang 15:253–266

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamilton J, Maddison D, Tol R (2005b) The effects on climate change on international tourism. Climate Res 29:245–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harrison SJ, Winterbottom SJ, Shephard C (1999) The potential effects of climate change on the Scottish tourist industry. Tour Manage 20:203–211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huybers T (2005) Destination choice modelling: what’s in a name? Tourism Econ 11(3):329–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. CUP, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Li G, Song H, Witt SF (2005) Recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting. J Trav Res 44:82–99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lim C (1999) A meta analysis review of international tourism demand. J Trav Res 37:273–284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lise W, Tol R (2002) Impact of climate on tourism demand. Clim Chang 555:429–449

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maddison D (2001) In search of warmer climates? The impact of climate change on flows of British tourist. Clim Chang 49:193–208

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McFadden D (1974) The measurement of urban travel demand. J Publ Econ 3:303–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mitchell TD, Carter TR, Jones PD, Hulme M, New M (2004) A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) and 16 scenarios (2001–2100). Tyndall Working Paper 55, Tyndall Centre, UEA, Norwich, UK

  • Moreno A, Amelung B (2009) Climate change and tourism comfort on Europe’s beaches in summer: a reassessment. Coast Manag 37:550–568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morley CL (1992) A microeconomic theory of international tourism demand. Ann Tourism Res 19:250–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Munizaga MA, Heydecker BG, Ortúzar JD (2000) Representation of heteroskedasticity in discrete choice models. Transport Res B 34:219–240

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholls RJ, Hoozemans FMJ (1996) The Mediterranean: vulnerability to coastal implications of climate change. Ocean Coast Manag 31:105–132

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicolau JL, Más FJ (2005) Stochastic modeling. A three-stage tourist choice process. Ann Tourism Res 32(1):49–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pestana C, Butler R, Correia A (2008) Heterogeneity in destination choice. Tourism in Africa. J Trav Res 47(2):235–246

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Phaneuf DJ, Smith VK (2005) Recreation demand models. In: Mäler KG, Vincent J (eds) Handbook of environmental economics: valuing environmental changes. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 671–761

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Rosselló J, Riera A, Cardenas V (2011) The impact of weather variability on British outbound flows. Clim Chang 105:281–292

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosselló J (2011) The impact of the NAO index on European Airline Transit. Transport Res Transport Environ 16:183–187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scott D, Wall G, McBoyle G (2005) The evolution of the climate change issue in the tourism sector. In: Hall CM, Higham J (eds) Tourism, recreation and climate change. Channel View Publications, Clevedon, pp 44–60

    Google Scholar 

  • Scott D, McBoyle G, Minogue A (2007) Climate change and Quebec’s ski industry. Glob Environ Chang 17:181–190

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song H, Li G (2008) Tourism demand modeling and forecasting—A review of recent research. Tour Manage 29:203–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Subak S, Palutikof J, Agnew M, Watson S, Bentham C, Cannel M, Hulme M, McNally S, Thornes J, Waughray D, Woods J (2000) The impact of the anomalous weather of 1995 on the UK Economy. Clim Chang 44:1–26

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thrane C (2008) The determinants of students’ destination choice for their summer vacation trip. Scand J Hospit Tourism 8(4):333–348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wall G (1998) Implications of global climate change for tourism and recreation in wetland areas. Clim Chang 40:371–389

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Financial support from the “Challenging climate change effects on tourism demand. Empirical evidence and adaptation measures” (ECO2010-22143) project funded by the CICYT Program (Spanish Government) is gratefully acknowledged. Additionally, data provided by Álvaro Moreno (Universiteit Maastricht) on future climate scenarios is also acknowledged.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Angel Bujosa.

Electronic Supplementary Material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

Supplement

(DOCX 140 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Bujosa, A., Rosselló, J. Climate change and summer mass tourism: the case of Spanish domestic tourism. Climatic Change 117, 363–375 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0554-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0554-x

Keywords

Navigation