Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of South-Central Interior, British Columbia

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to result in a warmer and drier climate in many parts of the world, including south-central British Columbia. With a shift in climate, a change in fire regimes is likely to occur. In this study, a statistically significant increase in mean fire size was predicted to occur along with an increase maximum fire size and decrease in the mean fire interval. A change in these fire regime characteristics suggests a climate-change driven shift in fire regimes may occur by the 2020s. The shift in fire regime suggests the proportion of the landscape burning every 50 years or less will increase from 34 % to 93 % by the 2080s. Change in fire regimes will have direct implications for ecosystem management as the combination of large, flammable fuel types and fire-prone climatic conditions will increase the risk of larger more frequent fires and increase the costs and dangers involved in managing fire-prone forests in the Cordilleran region of south-central British Columbia. The climate change-driven shift in fire regime questions the use of historic fire regime characteristics for determining landscape-level conservation targets within the study area.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agee JK (1993) Fire ecology of Pacific Northwest forests. Island Press, USA

    Google Scholar 

  • Anderson KR (2002) Fire growth modelling at multiple scales. In: Viegas DX (ed) Forest fire research & wildland fire safety: Proceedings of IV International Conference on Forest Fire Research 2002 Wildland Fire Safety Summit, Luso, Coimbra, Portugal 18–23 November 2002. Millpress, Rotterdam, pp 1–6

    Google Scholar 

  • Armstrong GW (1999) A stochastic characterisation of the natural disturbance regime of the boreal mixedwood forest with implications for sustainable forest management. Can J For Res 29:424–433

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arno SE, Fiedler CE (2005) Mimicking nature’s fire: restoring fire-prone forests in the West. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartlein PJ, Whitlock C, Shafer SL (1997) Future climate in the Yellowstone National Park Region and its potential impact on vegetation. Conserv Biol 11:782–792

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bergeron Y, Cyr D, Girardin MP, Carcaillet C (2010) Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data. Int J Wildland Fire 19:1127–1139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dale VH, Joyce LA, McNulty S, Neilson RP, Ayres MP, Flannigan MD, Hanson PJ, Irland LC, Lugo AE, Peterson CJ, Simberloff D, Swanson FJ, Stocks BJ, Wotton BM (2001) Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 51:723–734

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Environmental Systems Research Institute (2004) ESRI ArcGIS 9.0. Environmental Systems Research Institute Ltd, USA

  • Flannigan MD, Van Wagner CE (1991) Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can J For Res 21:66–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flannigan MD, Bergeron Y, Engelmark O, Wotton BM (1998) Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming. J Veg Sci 9:469–476

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flannigan M, Stocks B, Weber M (2003) Fire regimes and climate change in Canadian forests. In: Veblen TT, Baker WL, Montenegro G, Swetnam TW (eds) Fire and climate change in temperate ecosystems of the Western Americas. Springer, New York, pp 97–117

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Flannigan MD, Logan KA, Amiro BD, Skinner WR, Stocks BJ (2005) Future area burned in Canada. Clim Chang 72:1–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Flannigan MD, Krawchuk MA, de Groot WJ, Wotton BM, Gowman LM (2009) Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. Int J Wildland Fire 18:483–507

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fulé PZ, Villanueva-Díaz J, Ramos-Gómez M (2005) Fire regime in a conservation reserve in Chihuahua, Mexico. Can J For Res 35:320–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Girardin MP, Mudelsee M (2008) Past and future changes in Canadian boreal wildfire activity. Ecol Appl 18:391–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gunderson LH, Holling CS, Pritchard L Jr, Peterson GD (2002) Resilience of large-scale resource systems. In: Gunderson LH, Pritchard L Jr (eds) Resilience and behaviour of large-scale systems. Island Press, Washington, pp 3–20

    Google Scholar 

  • Hebda R (1998) Atmospheric change, forests and biodiversity. Environ Monit Assess 49:195–212

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hirsch KG (1996) Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction (FBP) System: users’s guide. Natural Resources Canada Special Report 7. Government of Canada

  • Hirsch K, Kafla V, Tymstra C, McAlpine R, Hawkes B, Stegehuis H, Quintilio S, Gauthier S, Peck K (2001) Fire-smart forest management: a pragmatic approach to sustainable forest management in fire-dominated ecosystems. For Chron 77:357–363

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimmins JP (2004) Forest ecology: a foundation for sustainable forest management and environmental ethics in forestry, 3rd edn. Prentice Hall, New Jersey

    Google Scholar 

  • Krawchuk MA, Cumming SG, Flannigan MD (2009) Predicted changes in fire weather increases lightning fire initiation and future area burned in the mixedwood boreal forest. Clim Chang 92:83–97

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Flannigan MD, Corns IGW (2000) Influence of potential climate change on forest landscape dynamics of west-central Alberta. Can J For Res 30:1905–1912

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McCoy ED (1996) Advocacy as part of conservation biology. Conserv Biol 10:919–920

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKenzie D, O’Neill SM, Larkin NK, Norheim RA (2006) Integrating models to predict regional haze from wildland fire. Ecol Model 199:278–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyn A, Taylor SW, Flannigan MD, Thonicke K, Cramer W (2010a) Relationship between fore, climate oscillations, and drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000. Glob Chang Biol 16:977–989

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meyn A, Schmidtlein S, Taylor SW, Girardin MP, Thonicke K, Cramer W (2010b) Spatial variation in wildfire and summer drought in British Columbia, Canada, 1920–2000. Int J Wildland Fire 19:272–283

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Miller C, Urban DL (1999) A model of surface fire, climate and forest pattern in the Sierra Nevada, California. Ecol Model 114:113–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Forests, BC Environment (1995) Biodiversity guidebook: Forest practices code of British Columbia. ISBN 0-7726-2619-7, Province of British Columbia

  • Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2008a) Climate change and fire potential in south-central British Columbia, Canada. Glob Chang Biol 14:841–855

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nitschke CR, Innes JL (2008b) Integrating climate change into forest management in South-Central British Columbia: an assessment of landscape vulnerability and development of a climate-smart framework. For Ecol Manag 256:313–327

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Noss RF (2001) Beyond Kyoto: forest management in a time of rapid climate change. Conserv Biol 15:578–590

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Overpeck JT, Rind D, Goldberg R (1990) Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343:51–53

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Palik BJ, Mitchell RJ, Hiers JK (2002) Modeling silviculture after natural disturbance to sustain biodiversity in the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem: balancing complexity and implementation. For Ecol Manag 155:347–356

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spracklen DV, Mickley LJ, Logan JA, Hudman RC, Yevich R, Flannigan MD, Westerling AL (2009) Impacts of climate change from 2000 to 2050 on wildfire activity and carbonaceous aerosol concentrations in the western United States. J Geophys Res 114:D20301

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stocks BJ, Fosberg MA, Lynham TJ, Mearns L, Wotton BM, Yang Q, Lin J-Z, Lawrence K, Hartley GR, Mason JA, McKenney DW (1998) Climate change and forest fire potential in Russian and Canadian Boreal forests. Clim Chang 38:1–13

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suffling R, Perera AH (2004) Characterizing natural disturbance regimes: concepts and approaches. In: Perera AH, Buse LJ, Weber MG (eds) Emulating natural forest landscape disturbances: concepts and applications. Columbia University Press, New York, pp 43–54

    Google Scholar 

  • Tabachnick BG, Fidell LS (2001) Using multivariate statistics, 4th edn. Allyn and Bacon, Boston

    Google Scholar 

  • Tansley AG (1935) The use and abuse of vegetational concepts and terms. Ecology 16:284–307

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thompson ID, Flannigan MD, Wotton BM, Suffling R (1998) The effects of climate change on landscape diversity: an example in Ontario forests. Environ Monit Assess 49:213–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tymstra C, Armitage OB, Logan K (2007) Impact of climate change on area burned in Alberta’s boreal forest. Int J Wildland Fire 16:153–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tymstra C, Bryce RW, Wotton BM, Taylor SW, Armitage OB (2010) Development and structure of Prometheus: the Canadian wildland fire growth simulation model. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB. Information Report NOR-X-417

  • Veblen TT, Baker WL, Montenegro G, Swetnam TW (eds) (2003) Fire and climate change in temperate ecosystems of the Western Americas. Springer, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Westerling AL, Bryant BP (2008) Climat change and wildfire in California. Clim Chang 87:S231–S249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westerling AL, Hadalgo HG, Cayan DR, Swetnam TW (2006) Warming and earlier spring increase in Western U.S. forest fire activity. Science 313:940–943

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Westerling AL, Turner MG, Smithwick EH, Romme WH, Ryan MG (2011) Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century. Proc Natl Acad Sci 108:13165–13170

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • White PS, Pickett STA (1985) Natural disturbance and patch dynamics: an introduction. In: Pickett STA, White PS (eds) The ecology of natural disturbance and patch dynamics. Academic, Orlando, pp 3–13

    Google Scholar 

  • Wong C, Dorner B, Sandmann H (2003) Estimating historical variability of natural disturbances in British Columbia. Land Management Handbook 53. Government of British Columbia

  • Wotton BM, Flannigan MD (1993) Length of the fire season in a changing climate. For Chron 69:187–192

    Google Scholar 

  • Wotton BM, Martell DL, Logan KA (2003) Climate change and people caused forest fire occurrence in Ontario. Clim Chang 60:275–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wotton BM, Flannigan MD, Nock CA (2010) Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada. Int J Wildland Fire 19:253–271

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the two anonymous reviewers for their excellent comments and critiques which have improved this paper. We would also like to thank Dr. John Nelson, Dr. Clive Welham and Dr. J.P. Kimmins for their comments on an early version of this paper. We would also like to thank the Sustainable Forest Management Network for funding this research and Tolko Industries Ltd. for allowing us to use one of their management units as a case study.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science, The University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Blvd, Richmond, VIC, 3121, Australia

    Craig R. Nitschke

  2. Department of Forest Resources Management, The University of British Columbia, 2045-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada

    Craig R. Nitschke & John L. Innes

Authors
  1. Craig R. Nitschke
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. John L. Innes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Craig R. Nitschke.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(DOCX 47 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Nitschke, C.R., Innes, J.L. Potential effect of climate change on observed fire regimes in the Cordilleran forests of South-Central Interior, British Columbia. Climatic Change 116, 579–591 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0522-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0522-5

Keywords

Search

Navigation