Abstract
The present study implemented a regional phenological model that was derived through the growing season index and adapted to a widespread Mediterranean species, the olive (Olea europaea L.). This model considers not only individual phenological events, but also the main vegetative and reproductive phenological phases of the species, in an integrated biological approach. The regional model generally does not need to include specific meteorological variables calculated as weekly or monthly averages which could limit the extrapolation over large areas. The main climatic limitations of the olive cultivation areas in the south Mediterranean at latitudes around 10° (practically speaking, the geographical limits of the olive) are estimated here. This analysis uses information relating to local climatic changes over the last two decades (1990–1999, 2000–2009) to provide interpretations of the temperature, solar radiation rate, and evapotranspiration trends. This has allowed creation of a Mediterranean phenological model adapted to the olive, which presents the contemporary climate requirements during winter and the warm summer season. The climate analysis and comparisons of these two decades has allowed us to reveal a reduction in the index according to the minimum temperature, which has particular consequences in the northern monitoring areas. This phenomenon appears to present new positive scenarios for the future regarding a northward shift of olive cultivation areas, due to the potential enlargement of the growing season in winter. However, negative scenarios can also be foreseen in consideration of the failure to satisfy the minimum chilling requirements in the traditional southern cultivation areas of the olive.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bach CS (2002) Phenological patterns in monsoon rainforests in the Northern Territory, Australia. Austr J Ecol 27:477–489
Barranco D, Fernández-Escobar R, Rallo L (1999) El cultivo del olivo. Mundi-Prensa. Madrid. 701 p.
Ben Ahmed C, Ben Rouina B, Boukhris M (2007) Effects of water deficit on olive trees cv. Chemlali under field conditions in arid region in Tunisia. Sci Hortic 113:267–277
Bonofiglio T, Orlandi F, Sgromo C, Romano B, Fornaciari M (2008) Influence of temperature and rainfall on timing of olive (Olea europaea) flowering in southern Italy. New Zeal J Crop Horticult Sci 36:59–70
Borchert R, Rivera G (2001) Photoperiodic control of seasonal development and dormancy in tropical stem–succulent trees. Tree Physiol 21:213–221
Botta A, Viovy N, Ciais P et al (2000) A global prognostic scheme of leaf onset using satellite data. Global Change Biol 6:709–725
Bristow KL, Campbell GS (1984) On the relationship between incoming solar radiation and daily maximum and minimum temperature. Agric Forest Meteorol 31:159–166
Caffarra A, Eccel E (2010) Increasing the robustness of phenological models for Vitis vinifera cv. Chardonnay. Int J Biometeorol 54:255–267
Childes SL (1989) Phenology of nine common woody species in semi-arid, deciduous Kalahari sand vegetation. Vegetation 79:151–163
Christensen JH, Hewitson B, Busuioc A, Chen A, Gao X, Held I, Jones R, Kolli RK, Kwon WT, Laprise R, Magaña Rueda V, Mearns L, Menéndez CG, Räisänen J, Rinke A, Sarr A, Whetton P (2007) Regional Climate Projections. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Christensen JH, Christensen OB (2007) A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate during this century. Clim Change 81:7–30
Chuine I, Cour P (1999) Climatic determinants of budburst seasonality in four temperate-zone tree species. New Phytol 143:339–349
Chuine I, Cambon G, Comtois P (2000) Scaling phenology from the local to the regional level: advances from species-specific phenological models. Global Change Biol 6:943–952
Deen W, Hunt T, Swanton CJ (1998) Influence of temperature, photoperiod and irradiance on the phenological development of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia). Weed Sci 46:555–560
De Melo-Abreu JP, Barranco D, Cordeiro AM, Tous J, Rogado BM, Villalobos FJ (2004) Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agric Forest Meteorol 125:117–127
Donatelli M, Bellocchi G, Fontana F (2003) RadEst 3.00: software to estimate daily radiation data from commonly available meteorological variables. Eur J Agron 18:363–367
Fornaciari M, Orlandi F, Romano B (2000) Phenological and aeropalynological survey in an olive orchard in Umbria (central Italy). Grana 39:246–251
Galán C, Garcıa-Mozo H, Carinanos P, Alcazar P, Domınguez E (2001) The role of temperature in the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in south-western Spain. Int J Biometeorol 45:8–12
Galán C, Garcia-Mozo H, Vazquez L, Ruiz-Valenzuela L, Díaz de la Guardia C, Trigo-Perez M (2005) Heat requirement for the onset of the Olea europaea L. pollen season in several places of Andalusia region and the effect of the expected future climate change. Int J Biometeorol 49:184–188
Galán C, Cariñanos P, Alcázar P, Dominguez E (2007) Management and quality manual. Spanish Aerobiology Network (REA). Servicio Publicaciones Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Spain. ISBN 978-84-690-6353-8
García de Cortázar-Atauri I, Brisson N, Gaudillere JP (2009) Performance of several models for predicting budburst date of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). Int J Biometeorol 4:317–326
Garcia-Mozo H, Orlandi F, Galan C, Fornaciari M, Romano B, Ruiz L, Diaz De La Guardia C, Trigo MM, Chuine I (2009) Olive flowering phenology variation between different cultivars in Spain and Italy: modeling analysis. Theoret Appl Climatol 95:385–395
García-Mozo H, Galán C, Belmonte J, Bermejo D, Candau P, Díaz de la Guardia C, Elvira B, Gutiérrez M, Jato V, Silva I, Trigo MM, Valencia R, Chuine I (2009) Predicting the start and peak dates of the Poaceae pollen season in Spain using process-based models. Agricult Forest Meteorol 149:256–262
Granier C, Tardieu F (1999) Water deficit and spatial pattern of leaf development. Variability in responses can be simulated using a simple model of leaf development. Plant Physiol 119:609–620
Hackett WP, Hartmann HT (1964) Inflorescence formation in olive as influences by low temperature, photoperiod, and leaf area. Botan Gaz 125:65–72
Hartmann (1949) Growth of the olive fruit. Proc Am Soc Horticult Sci 54:86–94
Hirst JM (1952) An automatic volumetric spore-trap. Ann Appl Biol 36:257–265
Inglese P, Gullo G, Pace LS, Ronzello G (1999) Fruit growth, oil accumulation and ripening of the olive cultivar “Carolea” in relation to fruit density. Acta Horticulturae 474:265–268
Jarvis P, Linder S (2000) Constraints to growth of boreal forests. Nature 405:904–905
Jolly WM, Nemani RR, Running SW (2005) A generalized, bioclimatic index to predict foliar phenology in response to climate. Glob Chang Biol 11:619–632
Kobayashi Y, Weigel D (2007) Move on up, it’s time for change – mobile signals controlling photoperiod-dependent flowering. Genes Dev 21:2371–2384
Larcher W, Bauer H (1981) Ecological significance of resistance to low temperature. In: Lange OL, Nobel PS, Osmond CB, Ziegler H (eds) Encyclopedia of plant physiology, vol 12A. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, pp 403–437
Lavee S (1986) Olive. In: Handbook of fruit set and development. CRC Press Inc., Boca Raton, Florida, USA, 261–276
Lechowicz MJ (2001) Phenology. In: Canadell J, Mooney HA (eds) Encyclopaedia of global environmental change, vol 2. Wiley, London
Levitt J (1980) Responses of plants to environmental stresses. Academic, New York
Lieberman D (1982) Seasonality and phenology in a dry tropical forest in Ghana. J Ecol 70:791–806
Loupassaki MH, Perica S, Androulakis II (1993) Seasonal changes in the olive fruit and the effects of summer-applied nitrogen and potassium. Adv Hortic Sci 7:65–68
Marletto V, Puppi G, Sirotti M (1992) Forecasting flowering dates of lawn species: application boundaries of the linear approach. Aerobiologia 8:75–83
Migliavacca M, Cremonese E, Colombo R, Busetto L, Galvagno M, Ganis L, Meroni M, Pari E, Rossini M, Siniscalco C, Morra di Cella U (2008) European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling? Int J Biometeorol 52:587–605
Mott KA, Parkhurst DF (1991) Stomatal responses to humidity in air and helox. Plant Cell Environ 14:509–515
Myneni RB, Keeling CD, Tucker CJ et al (1997) Increased plant growth in the northern latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386:698–702
Njoku E (1958) The photoperiodic response of some Nigerian plants. J West Afr Sci Assoc 4:99–111
Orlandi F, Ruga L, Romano B, Fornaciari M (2005) An integrated use of aerobiological and phenological data to analyze flowering in olive groves. Grana 44:51–56
Orlandi F, Sgromo C, Bonofiglio T, Ruga L, Romano B, Fornaciari M (2010) Spring influences on olive flowering and threshold temperatures related to reproductive structure formation. Hortscience 45:1052–1057
Palese AM, Vitale N, Favati F, Pietrafesa A, Celano G, Xiloyannis C (2010) Effects of water deficit on the vegetative response, yield and oil quality of olive trees (Olea europaea L., cv Coratina) grown under intensive cultivation. Sci Hortic 125:222–229
Partanen J, Koski V, Hanninen H (1998) Effects of photoperiod and temperature on the timing of bud burst in Norway spruce (Picea abies). Tree Physiol 18:811–816
Priestley CHB, Taylor RJ (1972) On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Mon Wea Rev 100(2):81–92
Rallo L, Cuevas J (2001) Fructificacion y producion. In: Barranco D, Fernández-Escobar R, Rallo L (eds) “El cultivo del olivo”, Ch. 5. Coed. Mundi-Prensa, Junta de Andalucía, pp 119–152
Reale L, Sgromo C, Ederli L, Pasqualini S, Orlandi F, Fornaciari M, Ferranti F, Romano B (2009) Morphological and cytological development and starch accumulation in hermaphrodite and staminate flowers of olive (Olea europaea L.). Sex Plant Reproduct 22:109–119
Rodrigo J, Hormaza JI, Herrero M (2000) Ovary starch reserves and flower development in apricot (Prunus armeniaca L.). Physiol Plant 108:35–41
Ruiz R, Garcıa-Luis A, Monerri C, Guardiola JL (2001) Carbohydrate availability in relation to fruitlet abscission in citrus. Ann Bot 87:805–812
Salah H, Tardieu F (1996) Quantitative analysis of the combined effects of temperature, evaporative demand and light on leaf elongation rate in well-watered field and laboratory-grown maize plants. J Exp Bot 47:1689–1698
Sanz-Cortés F, Martínez-Calvo J, Badenes ML, Bleiholder H, Hack H, Llacer G, Meier U (2002) Phenological growth stages of olive trees (Olea europaea). Ann Appl Biol 140:151–157
Slafer GA, Rawson HM (1996) Responses to photoperiod change with phenophase and temperature during wheat development. Field Crops Res 46:1–13
Tjamos EC, Graniti A, Smith IM, Lamberti F (1993) Conference on olive diseases. EPPO Bulletin 23:365–550
Van Grunderbeeck P, Tourre YM (2008) Bassin méditerranéen: changement climatique et impacts au cours du XXI ème siècle. In: Thibault HL, et Quéfélec S, (ss dir.): Changement climatique et énergie en Méditerranée (chap. 1), 558 p., p.1.3–1.69
White MA, Thornton PE, Running SW (1997) A continental phenology model for monitoring vegetation response to interannual climatic variability. Global Biogeochem Cycles 11:217–234
Young PC, Lees MJ (1992) The active mixing volume: a new concept in modelling environmental systems. In: Barnett V, Turkman R (eds) Statistics and the environment. Wiley, Chichester, pp 2–43
Zimmerman MH (1964) Effect of low temperature on ascent of sap in trees. Plant Physiol 39:568–572
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to the European Social Fund for co-financing with the Spanish Science Ministry the project Fenoclim CGL2011-24146 and. Dr. García Mozo grant supported by a “Ramón y Cajal” contract. Also authors thanks to International Olive Committee (IOC) for the project PEA/CFC/IOC/07 and to the Spanish Cooperation Agency (AECID) the financed projects A/018023/08, A 02509/09 and CAP 11-CAP2-0932
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Orlandi, F., Garcia-Mozo, H., Dhiab, A.B. et al. Climatic indices in the interpretation of the phenological phases of the olive in mediterranean areas during its biological cycle. Climatic Change 116, 263–284 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0474-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0474-9