Increasing prevalence of extreme summer temperatures in the U.S.
- 652 Downloads
Human-caused climate change can affect weather and climate extremes, as well as mean climate properties. Analysis of observations and climate model results shows that previously rare (5th percentile) summertime average temperatures are presently occurring with greatly increased frequency in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States. Broad agreement between observations and a mean of results based upon 16 global climate models suggests that this result is more consistent with the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations than with the effects of natural climate variability. This conclusion is further supported by a statistical analysis based on resampling of observations and model output. The same climate models project that the prevalence of previously extreme summer temperatures will continue to increase, occurring in well over 50% of summers by mid-century.
- Anderson BT (2011a) Intensification of seasonal extremes given a 2°C global warming target. Clim Chang. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0213-7, online first
- Diffenbaugh NS, Scherer M (2011) Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries, to appear in Climatic Change Letters.Google Scholar
- Maurer EP, Brekke L, Pruitt T, Duffy PB (2007) Fine-resolution climate change projections enhance regional climate change impact studies. Eos, Trans Am Geophys Union 88(47), 504 (online at http://www.agu.org/eos_elec/2007/47-504.html)
- Meehl, GA, Arblaster JM, Branstator G (2012) Understanding the U.S. East-West differential of heat extremes in terms of record temperatures and the warming hole. J. Clim submittedGoogle Scholar
- Nakicenovic N et al (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., 599 ppGoogle Scholar
- Pan Z, Arritt RW, Takle ES, Gutowski WJ Jr., Anderson CJ, Segal M (2004) Altered hydrologic feedback in a warming climate introduces a“warming hole”. Geophys Res Lett L17109, doi:10.1029/2004GL020528
- Portmann RW, Solomon S, Hegerl GC (2009) Spatial and seasonal patterns in climate change, temperatures, and precipitation across the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(18):7324–7329Google Scholar
- PRISM (PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, http://prism.oregonstate.edu, created 2007).
- Stott PA, Jones GS, Christidis N, Zwiers FW, Hegerl GC, Shiogama H (2010) Single-step attribution of increasing probabilities of very warm regional temperatures to human influence. Atmos Sci Lett 2011, doi:10.1002/asl.315