Abstract
Mountain ecosystems have been projected to experience faster rates of warming than surrounding lowlands. These changes in climatic conditions could have significant impacts on high-altitude Andean environments, affecting the quality and magnitude of their economic and environmental services. Even though long-term data in these regions are limited, it is important to identify any discernible long-term trends in local climatic conditions. Time series of several variables were analyzed to detect statistically significant long-term linear trends that occurred over recent years in a páramo ecosystem of the Colombian Central Andes. Records included cloud characteristics, sunshine, rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and relative humidity. Conditions of atmospheric stability were also explored. Total sunshine exhibited decreasing trends ranging from −3.7 to −8.5% per decade at altitudes around the pluviometric optimum. The strongest changes in sunshine occurred during the December-January-February season. Mean relative humidity observed at altitudes around and below this threshold showed increasing trends of +0.6 to +0.7% per decade. Annual rainfall and mean relative humidity above the optimum showed decreasing trends ranging from −7 to −11% per decade and from −1.5 to −3.6% per decade, respectively. Minimum temperatures on the coldest days and maximum temperatures on the warmest days exhibited increasing trends at all altitudes ranging from +0.1 to +0.6, and from +0.2 to +1.1°C per decade, respectively. Increases in minimum and maximum temperatures at higher altitudes were significantly greater than those observed in average at lower altitudes. The strongest changes in minimum temperatures, particularly, occurred during the December–January–February and June–July–August dry seasons. All these changes suggest that atmospheric conditions in the area are shifting from statically unstable conditions to conditionally unstable or statically stable conditions. Observed historical trends indicate that climate impacts and other human activities have stressed these unique and fragile environments.
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Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank A. Del Genio, D. Rind and A. Lacis (NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies at Columbia University in the City of New York), M. Cane (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University in the City of New York), A. Jaramillo (Centro Nacional de Investigaciones de Café - CENICAFE) and C. Tobón (Departamento de Ciencias Forestales, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín) for their valuable comments. The research group thank the Colombian Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies - IDEAM, the Central Hidroeléctrica de Caldas - CHEC, the Centro Nacional de Investigaciones de Café - CENICAFE, the Corporación Autónoma Regional de Caldas - CORPOCALDAS, the Corporación Autónoma Regional de Risaralda - CARDER, the Instituto Geográfico Agustín Codazzi - IGAC, and the Unidad Administrativa Especial del Sistema de Parques Nacionales Naturales de Colombia - UAESPNN for providing data and continuous support. The group also acknowledges the following individuals for their assistance during field campaigns: the rangers of the Los Nevados Natural Park (special thanks go to M. H. Arias and J. B. de la Cruz), the guides of the Asociación Caldense de Guías (special thanks go to A. Mayorga), L. F. Giraldo (Eco-Turismo Estratégico) and A. Tibaguy, and all the employees of the Tourist Services of the Los Nevados Natural Park (Concesión Nevados). We also acknowledge the helpful suggestions made by three anonymous peer-reviewers who read and commented this manuscript. Research activities were supported by the World Bank Group (Contract 7147577: Signals of climate variability/change in surface water supply of high-mountain watersheds. Case study: Claro River high mountain basin, Los Nevados Natural Park, Andean Central Mountain Range) and the Programa en Ingeniería Ambiental, Escuela de Ingeniería de Antioquia (Colombia). DRuiz was partially supported by the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences (Columbia University in the City of New York) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory.
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Ruiz, D., Martinson, D.G. & Vergara, W. Trends, stability and stress in the Colombian Central Andes. Climatic Change 112, 717–732 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0228-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0228-0