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Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products

Climatic Change volume 111, pages 215–239 (2012)Cite this article

Abstract

Spatiotemporal patterns of recent (1979–2008) air temperature trends are evaluated using three reanalysis datasets and radiosonde data. Our analysis demonstrates large discrepancies between the reanalysis datasets, possibly due to differences in the data assimilation procedures as well as sparseness and inhomogeneity of high-latitude observations. We test the robustness of arctic tropospheric warming based on the ERA-40 dataset. ERA-40 Arctic atmosphere temperatures tend to be closer to the observed ones in terms of root mean square error compared to other reanalysis products used in the article. However, changes in the ERA-40 data assimilation procedure produce unphysical jumps in atmospheric temperatures, which may be the likely reason for the elevated tropospheric warming trend in 1979–2002. NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data show that the near-surface upward temperature trend over the same period is greater than the tropospheric trend, which is consistent with direct radiosonde observations and inconsistent with ERA-40 results. A change of sign in the winter temperature trend from negative to positive in the late 1980s is documented in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere with a maximum over the Canadian Arctic, based on radiosonde data. This change from cooling to warming tendency is associated with weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex and shift of its center toward the Siberian coast and possibly can be explained by the changes in the dynamics of the Arctic Oscillation. This temporal pattern is consistent with multi-decadal variations of key arctic climate parameters like, for example, surface air temperature and oceanic freshwater content. Elucidating the mechanisms behind these changes will be critical to understanding the complex nature of high-latitude variability and its impact on global climate change.

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Acknowledgements

The study was supported by the National Science Foundation grants ARC 0909525, ARC 0652838 (VA, IP), National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (VA, IP), and the University of Alaska Fairbanks (SB). IE and SS were supported by the Norwegian Research Council projects PAACSIZ 178908/S30 “Planetary Boundary Layer Feedbacks Affecting the Polar Amplification of Arctic Climate Change in Seasonal Ice Zone”, POCAHONTAS 178345/S30 “Polar Climate and Heat Impact on the Arctic Shelves”, and NORCLIM 178245/S30 “Norwegian Climate Assessment”. ECMWF ERA-40 data used in this project were provided by ECMWF and obtained from the ECMWF data server. NCEP data used in this project were provided by NCEP and obtained from the NCEP data server. The JRA-25 data were obtained from the JRA-25 website: http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-25/index_en.html. The authors thank David Bromwich for useful discussions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Drive, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA

    Vladimir A. Alexeev, Igor V. Polyakov & Sarah J. Byam

  2. Thormoehlensgate 47, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, N-5006, Bergen, Norway

    Igor Esau & Svetlana Sorokina

  3. Allegaten 55, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, N-5007, Bergen, Norway

    Igor Esau & Svetlana Sorokina

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  1. Vladimir A. Alexeev
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  2. Igor Esau
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  3. Igor V. Polyakov
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  4. Sarah J. Byam
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  5. Svetlana Sorokina
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Correspondence to Vladimir A. Alexeev.

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Alexeev, V.A., Esau, I., Polyakov, I.V. et al. Vertical structure of recent arctic warming from observed data and reanalysis products. Climatic Change 111, 215–239 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0192-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0192-8

Keywords

  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation
  • Lower Stratosphere
  • Reanalysis Dataset
  • Reanalysis Product
  • Radiosonde Data

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