Abstract
The aim of the present study is, primarily, to compare the frequencies of exceptional hydrological and meteorological weekly events, employing the self-calibrated versions of Palmer’s drought indices (PDSI and PHDI, respectively), from 17 stations across Greece in the decade 1997–2006 with these of 1961–1990; on second level, to identify the trends and define the time lags between these two indices for the study period 1961–2006. The changes in the spatial distribution of exceptional weekly event frequencies between the most recent decade and the baseline period were similar for both drought indices. When 1997–2006 was compared with 1961–1990, the number of stations with a frequency of exceptionally dry weekly events >93rd percentile, increased by seven stations (41%) for PDSI and nine (53%) for PHDI, at the expense of exceptionally moist weekly spells. PDSI was found to lead PHDI by three to 20 weeks. If exceptional weekly events continue to be more frequent in the future, major implications for natural water resources are expected.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alcamo J et al (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry ML et al (eds) Contribution of Working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 541–580
American Meteorology Society (1997) Meteorological drought—policy statement. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:847–849
Bryant CR, Smit B, Brklacich M, Johnston TR, Smithers J, Qhiotti Q, Singh B (2000) Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climatic variability and change. Clim Change 45:181–201
Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. J Hydrol 58:11–27
Dubrovsky M, Svoboda MD, Trnka M, Hayes MJ, Wilhite DA, Zalud Z, Hlavinka P (2008) Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia. Theor Appl Climatol 96:155–171
Feidas H, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E (2004) Trend analysis of air temperature time series in Greece and their relationsip with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1950–2001. Theor Appl Climatol 79:185–208
Feidas H, Noulopoulou C, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E (2007) Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955–2001. Theor Appl Climatol 87:155–177
Heim RR (2002) A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1149–1165
Karl T, Quinlan F, Ezell DS (1987) Drought termination and amellioration: its climatological probability. J Clim Appl Meteorol 26:1198–1209
Keyantash J, Dracup JA (2002) The quantification of drought: an evaluation of drought indices. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1167–1180
Kostopoulou E, Jones PD (2005) Assessment of climate extremes in the eastern Mediterranean. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:69–85
Levene H (1960) Robust tests for equality of variances. In: Contributions to probability and statistics: essays in honor of Harold Hotelling. Stanford University Press, Stanford, pp 278–292
Livada I, Assimakopoulos VD (2007) Spatial and temporal analysis of frought in Greece using the Standardized Precipitation Index. Theor Appl Climatol 89:143–153
Lloyd-Hughes B, Saunders MA (2002) A drought climatology for Europe. Int J Climatol 22:1571–1592
Lohani VK, Loganthan GV (1997) An early warning system for drought management using the Palmer Drought Index. J Am Water Resour Assoc 33:1375–1386
Mavromatis T (2007) Drought index evaluation for assessing future wheat production in Greece. Int J Climatol 27:911–924
Mitchell JM, Dzerdzeevskii B, Flohn H, Hofmeyr WL, Lamb HH, Rao KN, Wallén CC (1966) Climatic change. In: WMO technical note no 79. World Meteorological Organization, p 79
Mpelasoka F, Heneessy K, Jones R, Bates B (2008) Comparison of suitable drought indices for climate change impacts assessment over Australia towards resource management. Int J Climatol 28:1283–1292
Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2008) Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece. Adv Geosci 16:55–62
Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2009) Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece. Atmos Res 94:616–628
Norrant C, Douguédroit A (2006) Monthly and daily precipitation trends in the Mediterranean. Theor Appl Climatol 83:89–106
Ntale HK, Gan TY (2003) Drought indices and their application to east Africa. Int J Climatol 23:1335–1357
Palmer WC (1965) Meteorological drought. U.S. Weather Bureau Research Paper 45, pp 58 (Available from NOAA Library and Information Services Division, Washington, DC)
Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Repapis CC (2008) Air temperature variability and trends over Greece. Global Nest J 10:273–285
Quiring SM, Papakyriakou TN (2003) An evaluation of agricultural drought indices for the Canadian prairies. Agric for Meteorol 118:49–62
Soulè PT, Yin ZY (1995) Short- to long-term trends in hydrologic drought conditions in the contiguous United States. Clim Res 5:149–157
Thornthwaite CW (1948) An approach towards a rational classification of climate. Geogr Rev 38:55–94
Van Der Schrier G, Briffa KR, Jones PD, Osborn TJ (2006) Summer moisture variability across Europe. J Climate 19:2818–2834
Von Newmann J (1941) Distribution of the ratio of the mean square successive difference to the variance. Ann Math Stat 13:367–395
Weber L, Nkemdirim L (1998) Palmer’s drought indices revisited. Geografiska Annaler 80A:153–172
Wells N, Goddard S, Hayes MJ (2004) A self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity index. J Climate 17:2335–2351
Wilhite DA (2000) Drought as a natural hazard: concepts and definitions. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought a global assessment. Routledge, London, pp 3–18
Wu H, Hubbard KG, Wilhite DA (2004) An agricultural drought risk-assessment model for corn and soybeans. Int J Climatol 24:723–741
Yin ZY (1993) Spatial pattern of temporal trends in moisture conditions in the southeastern United States. Geografiska Annaler 75A:1–11
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Mavromatis, T. Changes in exceptional hydrological and meteorological weekly event frequencies in Greece. Climatic Change 110, 249–267 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0095-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0095-8