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Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change

Climatic Change volume 113, pages 1065–1079 (2012)Cite this article

Abstract

Increased tidal levels and storm surges related to climate change are projected to result in extremely adverse effects on coastal regions. Predictions of such extreme and small-scale events, however, are exceedingly challenging, even for relatively short time horizons. Here we use data from observations, ERA-40 re-analysis, climate scenario simulations, and a simple feature model to find that the frequency of extreme storm surge events affecting Venice is projected to decrease by about 30% by the end of the twenty-first century. In addition, through a trend assessment based on tidal observations we found a reduction in extreme tidal levels. Extrapolating the current +17 cm/century sea level trend, our results suggest that the frequency of extreme tides in Venice might largely remain unaltered under the projected twenty-first century climate simulations.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Pye Laboratory, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), GPO Box 3023, Clunies Ross Street, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Alberto Troccoli

  2. Environmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC), University of Reading, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK

    Filippo Zambon & Kevin I. Hodges

  3. Dept. IMAGE and International Center for Hydrology, University of Padova, via Loredan 20, 35131, Padova, Italy

    Filippo Zambon & Marco Marani

Authors
  1. Alberto Troccoli
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  2. Filippo Zambon
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  3. Kevin I. Hodges
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  4. Marco Marani
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Correspondence to Alberto Troccoli.

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Troccoli, A., Zambon, F., Hodges, K.I. et al. Storm surge frequency reduction in Venice under climate change. Climatic Change 113, 1065–1079 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0093-x

Keywords

  • Storm Surge
  • Extreme Storm
  • Astronomical Tide
  • False Alarm Ratio
  • Storm Surge Event