Abstract
A range of alternatives to the Global Warming Potential (GWP) have been suggested in the scientific literature. One of the alternative metrics that has received attention is the cost-effective relative valuation of greenhouse gases, recently denoted Global Cost Potential (GCP). However, this metric is based on complex optimising integrated assessment models that are far from transparent to the general scientist or policymaker. Here we present a new analytic metric, the Cost-Effective Temperature Potential (CETP) which is based on an approximation of the GCP. This new metric is constructed in order to enhance general understanding of the GCP and elucidate the links between physical metrics and metrics that take economics into account. We show that this metric has got similarities with the purely physical metric, Global Temperature change Potential (GTP). However, in contrast with the GTP, the CETP takes the long-term temperature response into account.
Access this article
We’re sorry, something doesn't seem to be working properly.
Please try refreshing the page. If that doesn't work, please contact support so we can address the problem.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Andrews DR, Allen MR (2008) Diagnosis of climate models in terms of transientclimate response and feedback response time. Atmos Sci Lett 9:7–12
Azar C, Sterner T (1996) Discounting and distributional considerations in the context of global warming. Ecol Econ 19(2):169–184
Baumol WJ, Oates WE (1988) The theory of environmental policy, 2nd edn. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Dasgupta P (2008) Discounting climate change. J Risk Uncertainty 37(2–3):141–169
den Elzen MGJ, van Vuuren DP (2007) Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs. PNAS 104(46):17931–17936
Eckaus RS (1992) Comparing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on global warming. Energy J 13:25–35
Fisher DA, Hales CH, Wang W-C, Ko MKW, Dak SN (1990) Model calculations of the relative effects of CFCs and their replacements on global warming. Nature 344:513–516
Forster P, Ramaswamy V, Artaxo P, Berntsen T, Betts R, Fahey DW, Haywood J, Lean J, Lowe DC, Myhre G, Nganga J, Prinn R, Raga G, Schulz M, Van Dorland R (2007) Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Fuglestvedt JS, Berntsen TK, Godal O, Sausen R, Shine KP, Skodvin T (2003) Metrics of climate change: assessing radiative forcing and emission indices. Clim Change 58:267–331
Fuglestvedt JS, Shine KP, Berntsen T, Cook J, Lee JS, Stenke A, Bieltvedt Skeie R, Velders G, Waitz I (2010) Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: metrics. Atmos Environ 44:4648–4677
Hammitt JK, Jain AK, Adams JL, Wuebbles DJ (1996) A welfare-based index for assessing environmental effects of greenhouse-gas emissions. Nature 381:301–303
Hayhoe K, Jain A, Pitcher H, MacCracken C, Gibbs M, Wuebbles D, Harvey R, Kruger D (2000) Climate change policy - costs of multigreenhouse gas reduction targets for the USA. Science 286:905–906
IPCC (1992) In: Houghton JT, Callander BA, Varney SK (eds) 1992 IPCC supplement. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Johansson DJA, Persson UM, Azar C (2006) The cost of using global warming potentials: analysing the trade off between CO2, CH4, and N2O. Clim Change 77:291–309
Johansson DJA (2010) Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9969-4
Johansson DJA, Persson UM, Azar C (2008) Uncertainty and learning: implications for the trade-off between short-lived and long-lived greenhouse gases. Clim Change 88:293–308
Kandlikar M (1996) Indices for comparing greenhouse gas emissions: integrating science and economics. Energy Econ 18:265–281
Lashof DA, Ahuja DR (1990) The relative contributions of greenhouse gas emissions to global warming. Nature 344:529–531
Lind RC (ed) (1982) Discounting for time and risk in energy policy. Johns Hopkins University Press, Baltimore
Manne AS, Richels RG (2001) An alternative approach to establishing trade-offs among greenhouse gases. Nature 410(6829):675–677
Maier-Reimer E, Hasselmann K (1987) Transport and storage of CO2 in the ocean – an inorganic ocean-circulation carbon cycle model. Climate Dyn 2(2):63–90
Michaelis P (1992) Global warming: efficient policies in the case of multiple pollutants. Environ Resour Econ 2:61–77
O’Neill BC (2000) The jury is still out on global warming potentials. Clim Change 44:427–443
O’Neill BC (2003) Economics, natural science, and the costs of global warming potentials. Clim Change 58(3):251–260
Plattner G-K, Stocker T, Midgley P, Tigno M (2009) IPCC expert meeting on the science of alternative metrics
Reilly JM, Richards KR (1993) Climate change damage and the trace gas index issue. Environ Resour Econ 3:41–61
Reilly J, Prinn R, Harnisch J, Fitzmaurice J, Jacoby H, Kicklighter D, Melillo J, Stone P, Sokolov A, Wang C (1999) Multi gas assessment of the Kyoto protocol. Nature 401:549–555
Richels RG, Manne AS, Wigley TML (2007) Moving beyond concentrations: the challenge of limiting temperature change. In: Schlesinger ME, Kheshgi HS, Smith J, Chesnaye FDL, Reilly JM, Wilson T, Kolstad C (eds) Human-induced climate change: an interdisciplinary assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Schmalensee R (1993) Comparing greenhouse gases for policy purposes. Energy J 14:245–255
Shackley S, Wynne B (1997) Global warming potentials: ambiguity or precision as an aid to policy? Clim Res 8:89–106
Shine K, Derwent RG, Wuebbles DJ, Morcrette JJ (1990) Radiative forcing of climate. In: Houghton JT et al (eds) Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Shine KP, Fuglestvedt JS, Hailemariam K, Stuber N (2005) Alternatives to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases. Clim Change 68(3):281–302
Shine KP, Berntsen TK, Fuglestvedt JS, Bieltvedt SR, Stuber N (2007) Comparing the climate effect of emissions of short and long lived climate agents. Philos Trans R Soc A 365(1856):1903–1914
Smith SJ (2003) The evaluation of greenhouse gas indices. Clim Change 58(3):261–265
Smith SJ, Wigley TML (2000) Global warming potentials: 1. Climatic implications of emissions reductions. Clim Change 44:445–457
Stern NH (2007) The economics of climate change: the stern review. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Sterner T (2002) Policy instruments for environmental and natural resource management. RFF, Mishawaka
Tanaka K, O’Neill BC, Rokityanskiy D, Obersteiner M, Tol RSJ (2009) Evaluating global warming potentials with historical temperature. Clim Change 96(4):443–466
Tol RSJ, Berntsen TK, O’Neill BC, Fuglestvedt JS, Shine KP, Balkanski Y, Makra L (2008) Metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions: a unifying framework. ESRI Working paper No. 257
UNFCCC (1992) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNFCCC (1997) Kyoto protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNFCCC (2008) Consideration of relevant methodological issues. Document: FCCC/KP/AWG/2008/L.14
UNFCCC (2009) Copenhagen Accord
Van Vuuren DP, Weyant J, de la Chesnaye F (2006) Multi-gas scenarios to stabilize radiative forcing. Energy Econ 28:102–120
Weyant JP, de la Chesnaye F, Blanford GJ (2006) Overview of EMF-21: multigas mitigation and climate policy. Energy Journal, Special Issue #3 – Multi-greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy
Wigley TML (1998) The Kyoto Protocol: CO2, CH4 and climate implications. Geophys Res Lett 25(13):2285–2288
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Johansson, D.J.A. Economics- and physical-based metrics for comparing greenhouse gases. Climatic Change 110, 123–141 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0072-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0072-2