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Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example

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  • Published: 24 February 2011
  • Volume 109, pages 617–645, (2011)
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Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript
Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example
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  • Caroline A. Katsman1,
  • A. Sterl2,
  • J. J. Beersma2,
  • H. W. van den Brink3,
  • J. A. Church4,
  • W. Hazeleger2,
  • R. E. Kopp5,
  • D. Kroon6,7,
  • J. Kwadijk8,
  • R. Lammersen9,
  • J. Lowe10,
  • M. Oppenheimer5,
  • H. -P. Plag11,
  • J. Ridley10,
  • H. von Storch12,
  • D. G. Vaughan13,
  • P. Vellinga14,
  • L. L. A. Vermeersen15,
  • R. S. W. van de Wal16 &
  • …
  • R. Weisse12 

  • 4915 Accesses

  • 143 Citations

  • 30 Altmetric

  • 1 Mention

  • Explore all metrics

Abstract

Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country’s flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0.55 to 1.15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0.40 to 1.05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Global Climate Division, P.O. Box 201, 3730, AE De Bilt, The Netherlands

    Caroline A. Katsman

  2. KNMI, De Bilt, The Netherlands

    A. Sterl, J. J. Beersma & W. Hazeleger

  3. Meteo Consult BV, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    H. W. van den Brink

  4. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology, and the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Hobart, Australia

    J. A. Church

  5. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

    R. E. Kopp & M. Oppenheimer

  6. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland

    D. Kroon

  7. Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    D. Kroon

  8. Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands

    J. Kwadijk

  9. Rijkswaterstaat Waterdienst , Lelystad, The Netherlands

    R. Lammersen

  10. Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK

    J. Lowe & J. Ridley

  11. Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology and Seismological Laboratory, University of Nevada, Carson City, NV, USA

    H. -P. Plag

  12. GKSS Research Center, Institute for Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany

    H. von Storch & R. Weisse

  13. British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK

    D. G. Vaughan

  14. Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Wageningen, The Netherlands

    P. Vellinga

  15. DEOS, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

    L. L. A. Vermeersen

  16. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    R. S. W. van de Wal

Authors
  1. Caroline A. Katsman
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  2. A. Sterl
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  3. J. J. Beersma
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  4. H. W. van den Brink
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  5. J. A. Church
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  6. W. Hazeleger
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  8. D. Kroon
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  9. J. Kwadijk
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  10. R. Lammersen
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  11. J. Lowe
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  13. H. -P. Plag
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  14. J. Ridley
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  16. D. G. Vaughan
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  17. P. Vellinga
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  18. L. L. A. Vermeersen
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  19. R. S. W. van de Wal
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  20. R. Weisse
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Caroline A. Katsman.

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Open Access This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/2.0), which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.

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Katsman, C.A., Sterl, A., Beersma, J.J. et al. Exploring high-end scenarios for local sea level rise to develop flood protection strategies for a low-lying delta—the Netherlands as an example. Climatic Change 109, 617–645 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

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  • Received: 24 November 2009

  • Accepted: 21 January 2011

  • Published: 24 February 2011

  • Issue Date: December 2011

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0037-5

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Keywords

  • Surface Mass Balance
  • Atmospheric Temperature Rise
  • Glacier Acceleration
  • Modest Scenario
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