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Counting only the hits? The risk of underestimating the costs of stringent climate policy

A letter

Climatic Change volume 100, pages 769–778 (2010)Cite this article

Abstract

This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs—and the uncertainty about the costs—of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment models results produces biased estimates for the more ambitious climate objectives such as those compatible with the 2°C of the European Union and the G8. The magnitude and range of estimates are significantly reduced because only the most optimistic results are reported for such targets. We suggest a procedure that addresses this partiality. The results show highly variable costs for the most ambitious scenarios.

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Affiliations

  1. Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA

    Massimo Tavoni

  2. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan, Italy

    Massimo Tavoni

  3. Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland

    Richard S. J. Tol

  4. Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Richard S. J. Tol

  5. Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

    Richard S. J. Tol

Authors
  1. Massimo Tavoni
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  2. Richard S. J. Tol
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Correspondence to Massimo Tavoni.

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Tavoni, M., Tol, R.S.J. Counting only the hits? The risk of underestimating the costs of stringent climate policy. Climatic Change 100, 769–778 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9867-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9867-9

Keywords

  • Climate Policy
  • Abatement Cost
  • Policy Cost
  • Energy Econ
  • Emission Reduction Cost