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Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation

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Abstract

Spatial climate models were developed for México and its periphery (southern USA, Cuba, Belize and Guatemala) for monthly normals (1961–1990) of average, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation using thin plate smoothing splines of ANUSPLIN software on ca. 3,800 observations. The fit of the model was generally good: the signal was considerably less than one-half of the number of observations, and reasonable standard errors for the surfaces would be less than 1°C for temperature and 10–15% for precipitation. Monthly normals were updated for three time periods according to three General Circulation Models and three emission scenarios. On average, mean annual temperature would increase 1.5°C by year 2030, 2.3°C by year 2060 and 3.7°C by year 2090; annual precipitation would decrease −6.7% by year 2030, −9.0% by year 2060 and −18.2% by year 2090. By converting monthly means into a series of variables relevant to biology (e. g., degree-days > 5°C, aridity index), the models are directly suited for inferring plant–climate relationships and, therefore, in assessing impact of and developing programs for accommodating global warming. Programs are outlined for (a) assisting migration of four commercially important species of pine distributed in altitudinal sequence in Michoacán State (b) developing conservation programs in the floristically diverse Tehuacán Valley, and (c) perpetuating Pinus chiapensis, a threatened endemic. Climate surfaces, point or gridded climatic estimates and maps are available at http://forest.moscowfsl.wsu.edu/climate/.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias y Forestales, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo (IIAF-UMSNH), Km 9.5 Carretera Morelia-Zinapécuaro, Tarímbaro, Michoacán, 58880, México

    Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero

  2. Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 1221 S. Main, Moscow, ID, 83843, USA

    Gerald E. Rehfeldt & Nicholas L. Crookston

  3. Centre de foresterie des Laurentides, Service canadien des forêts, Ressources naturelles Canada, 1055 rue du P.E.P.S., CP 10380 Succ. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada

    Pierre Duval & Rémi St-Amant

  4. Centre canadien sur la fibre de bois, Service canadien des forêts, Ressources naturelles Canada, 1055 rue du P.E.P.S., CP 10380 Succ. Sainte-Foy, Québec, QC, G1V 4C7, Canada

    Jean Beaulieu

  5. Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 735 North 500 East, Provo, UT, USA

    Bryce A. Richardson

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  1. Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero
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  2. Gerald E. Rehfeldt
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  3. Nicholas L. Crookston
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Correspondence to Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero.

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Sáenz-Romero, C., Rehfeldt, G.E., Crookston, N.L. et al. Spline models of contemporary, 2030, 2060 and 2090 climates for Mexico and their use in understanding climate-change impacts on the vegetation. Climatic Change 102, 595–623 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9753-5

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