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An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends

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Abstract

We analyze historical simulations of variability in temperature and rainfall extremes in the twentieth century, as derived from various global models run informing the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4). On the basis of three indices of climate extremes, we compare observed and modeled trends in time and space, including the direction and significance of the changes at the scale of South America south of 10° S. The climate extremes described warm nights, heavy rainfall amounts and dry spells. The reliability of the GCM simulations is suggested by similarity between observations and simulations in the case of warm nights and extreme rainfall in some regions. For any specific extreme temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models in some regions, while substantial differences appear in regions in the interior of tropical and subtropical South America. The differences are in the relative magnitude of the trends. Consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered, with the exception of the La Plata Basin, where observed and simulated trends in warm nights and extreme rainfall are evident.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Ciências do Sistema Terra, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Rodovia Dutra km 40, 12630-000 Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil

    Jose A. Marengo

  2. Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, FCEN Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Matilde Rusticucci & Olga Penalba

  3. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, UBA/CONICET, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Matilde Rusticucci

  4. Unidad Ciencias de la Atmósfera FCIEN, Universidad de la Republica, Montevideo, Uruguay

    Madeleine Renom

Authors
  1. Jose A. Marengo
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  2. Matilde Rusticucci
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  3. Olga Penalba
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  4. Madeleine Renom
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Correspondence to Jose A. Marengo.

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Marengo, J.A., Rusticucci, M., Penalba, O. et al. An intercomparison of observed and simulated extreme rainfall and temperature events during the last half of the twentieth century: part 2: historical trends. Climatic Change 98, 509–529 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9743-7

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