Climatic Change

, Volume 102, Issue 3–4, pp 555–578 | Cite as

Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

  • Miguel Esteban
  • Christian Webersik
  • Tomoya Shibayama
Article

Abstract

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Miguel Esteban
    • 1
  • Christian Webersik
    • 2
  • Tomoya Shibayama
    • 3
  1. 1.Institute of Advance StudiesUnited Nations UniversityYokohamaJapan
  2. 2.Centre for Development StudiesUniversity of AgderKristiansandNorway
  3. 3.Department of Civil EngineeringYokohama National UniversityYokohamaJapan

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