Climatic Change

, Volume 101, Issue 3–4, pp 575–597 | Cite as

Potential extents for ENSO-driven hydrologic drought forecasts in the United States

  • Jae H. Ryu
  • Mark D. Svoboda
  • John D. Lenters
  • Tsegaye Tadesse
  • Cody L. Knutson
Article

Abstract

The relationship between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and hydrologic variability in the United States is investigated using Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)/Principal Component Analysis (PCA). The multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is utilized to identify strong coherences associated with multiple months (1-, 2-, 4-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 48-month) of the Log-Standardized Hydrologic Drought Index (LSHDI) in the conterminous states for the period 1950–2005. Based on 56 years of monthly streamflow data for 102 forecast climate divisions, this research explores the spatial and temporal variation of hydrologic responses corresponding to ENSO events. Preliminary results show that a potential predictor of the dominant streamflow modes in the northern Great Plains is identified from streamflows in western Arizona. Also, positive relationships between hydrologic drought and El Niño were found in the Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, and northern California), whereas negative relationships were detected in southern California and the northern Great Plains. These findings will provide useful insights to help improve streamflow forecast potential and capabilities, and minimize the impacts of hydrologic events (e.g. floods and droughts) associated with ENSO events.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Andrews ED, Antweiler RC, Neiman PJ, Ralph FM (2004) Influence of ENSO on flood frequency along the California Coast. J Climate 17(2):337–348CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Barlow M, Nigam S, Berbery EH (2001) ENSO, Pacific decadal variability, and U.S. Summertime precipitation, drought, and stream flow. J Climate 14(9):2105–2128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Battisti DS, Sarachik ES (1995) Understanding and predicting ENSO. Rev Geophys Suppl 33:1367–1376CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Box GEP, Cox DR (1964) An analysis of transformations. J R Stat Soc 26(2):211–252Google Scholar
  5. Green PM, Legler DM, Miranda CJ, O’Brien JJ (1997) The North American climate patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Project Report Series 97–1Google Scholar
  6. Hamlet AF, Daniel H, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Economic value of long-lead streamflow forecasts for Columbia River hydropower. J Water Resour Plan Manage 128(2):91–101CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Hidalgo HG, Dracup JA (2003) ENSO and PDO effects on hydroclimatic variations of the Upper Colorado River Basin. J Hydrometeorol 4(1):5–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Hirsch RM (1982) A comparison of four record extension techniques. Water Resour Res 18(4):1081–1088CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Horel JD (1981) A rotated principal component analysis of the interannual variability of the Northern Hemisphere 500 mb height field. Mon Weather Rev 109(10):2080–2092CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Kahya E, Dracup JA (1993) U.S. streamflow patterns in relation to the El Niño/Southern oscillation. Water Resour Res 29(8):2491–2504CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Karl TR, Koscielny AJ (1982) Drought in the United States: 1895–1981. J Climatol 2:313–329CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Lins HF (1985) Streamflow variability in the United States: 1931–78. J Appl Meteorol 24(5):463–470CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110(7):699–706CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Piechota TC, Dracup JA (1996) Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Water Resour Res 32(5):1359–1373CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Rajagopalan B, Cook E, Lall U, Ray B (2000) Spatiotemporal variability of ENSO and SST teleconnections to summer drought over the United States during the twentieth century. J Climate 13(24):4244–4255CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Redmond KT, Koch RW (1991) Surface climate and streamflow variability in the Western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indices. Water Resour Res 27(9):2381–2399CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1986) North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon Weather Rev 114(12):2352–2362CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1987) Global and regional scale precipitation patterns associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 115(8):1601–1626CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Stedinger JR (1980) Fitting log normal distributions to hydrologic data. Water Resour Res 16(3):481–490CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM (2000) Annular modes in the extratropical circulation, part I: month-to-month variability. J Climate 13(5):1000–1016CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Vogel RM, Stedinger JR (1985) Minimum variance streamflow record augmentation procedures. Water Resour Res 21(5):715–723CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definition. Water Int 10:111–120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Wilks DS (2006) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic, San DiegoGoogle Scholar
  25. Wolter K (1987) The Southern Oscillation in surface circulation and climate over the Tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Indian Oceans as captured by cluster analysis. J Appl Meteorol 26(4):540–558CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  26. Wolter K, Timlin MS (1998) Measuring the strength of ENSO—how does 1997/98 rank? Weather 53(9):315–324Google Scholar
  27. Wood AW, Lettenmaier DP (2006) A test bed for new seasonal hydrologic forecasting approaches in the Western United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87(12):1699–1712CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Yao H, Georgakakos A (2001) Assessment of Folsom Lake response to historical and potential future climate scenarios, 2. Reservoir management. J Hydrol 249(1–4):176–196CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Authors and Affiliations

  • Jae H. Ryu
    • 1
  • Mark D. Svoboda
    • 1
  • John D. Lenters
    • 1
    • 2
  • Tsegaye Tadesse
    • 1
  • Cody L. Knutson
    • 1
  1. 1.School of Natural ResourcesUniversity of NebraskaLincolnUSA
  2. 2.Department of GeosciencesUniversity of NebraskaLincolnUSA

Personalised recommendations