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Global and hemispheric temperatures revisited

Climatic Change volume 94, pages 333–349 (2009)Cite this article

Abstract

To characterize observed global and hemispheric temperatures, previous studies have proposed two types of data-generating processes, namely, random walk and trend-stationary, offering contrasting views regarding how the climate system works. Here we present an analysis of the time series properties of global and hemispheric temperatures using modern econometric techniques. Results show that: The temperature series can be better described as trend-stationary processes with a one-time permanent shock which cannot be interpreted as part of the natural variability; climate change has affected the mean of the processes but not their variability; it has manifested in two stages in global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the last century, while a second stage is yet possible in the Southern Hemisphere; in terms of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change it can be argued that significant (dangerous) anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAM, Ciudad Universitaria, Circuito Exterior, México, DF, 04510, México

    Carlos Gay-Garcia & Francisco Estrada

  2. Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México, DF, 04510, México

    Armando Sánchez

Authors
  1. Carlos Gay-Garcia
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  2. Francisco Estrada
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  3. Armando Sánchez
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Correspondence to Carlos Gay-Garcia.

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Gay-Garcia, C., Estrada, F. & Sánchez, A. Global and hemispheric temperatures revisited. Climatic Change 94, 333–349 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9524-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9524-8

Keywords

  • Unit Root
  • Unit Root Test
  • Temperature Series
  • Trend Function
  • Hemispheric Temperature