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Climatic Change

, Volume 94, Issue 3–4, pp 333–349 | Cite as

Global and hemispheric temperatures revisited

  • Carlos Gay-GarciaEmail author
  • Francisco Estrada
  • Armando Sánchez
Article

Abstract

To characterize observed global and hemispheric temperatures, previous studies have proposed two types of data-generating processes, namely, random walk and trend-stationary, offering contrasting views regarding how the climate system works. Here we present an analysis of the time series properties of global and hemispheric temperatures using modern econometric techniques. Results show that: The temperature series can be better described as trend-stationary processes with a one-time permanent shock which cannot be interpreted as part of the natural variability; climate change has affected the mean of the processes but not their variability; it has manifested in two stages in global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures during the last century, while a second stage is yet possible in the Southern Hemisphere; in terms of Article 2 of the Framework Convention on Climate Change it can be argued that significant (dangerous) anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred.

Keywords

Unit Root Unit Root Test Temperature Series Trend Function Hemispheric Temperature 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carlos Gay-Garcia
    • 1
    Email author
  • Francisco Estrada
    • 1
  • Armando Sánchez
    • 2
  1. 1.Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, UNAMCiudad UniversitariaMéxicoMéxico
  2. 2.Instituto de Investigaciones EconómicasUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxicoMéxico

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