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Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France

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Abstract

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5- to 6-m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030–2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5–6 m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative “wait and see” option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1 m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present-day policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut Symlog, 262 rue Saint-Jacques, 75005, Paris, France

    Marc Poumadère, Claire Mays & Gabriela Pfeifle

  2. Université Toulouse 2 - Le Mirail, Toulose, France

    Gabriela Pfeifle

  3. Department of Geography, University of the Aegean, University Hill, Mytilene, 81100, Lesvos, Greece

    Athanasios T. Vafeidis

Authors
  1. Marc Poumadère
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  2. Claire Mays
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  3. Gabriela Pfeifle
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  4. Athanasios T. Vafeidis
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Correspondence to Marc Poumadère.

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Poumadère, M., Mays, C., Pfeifle, G. et al. Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France. Climatic Change 91, 123–143 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9446-5

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