Climatic Change

, Volume 87, Issue 3–4, pp 361–383 | Cite as

The relationship between climate and outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm in eastern Canada

Article

Abstract

The relationship between outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm and the combination of climate, forest composition, and spatial location was examined in eastern Canada by the method of constrained ordination. Approximately 54% of the spatial variability in outbreak pattern, as described by a matrix of four outbreak characteristics, was explained by the spatial pattern of the climate (a matrix of six variables), forest composition (a matrix of seven variables), and spatial location (a matrix of two variables). The relationships between outbreak variables and climate variables were highlighted, and future outbreak characteristics of the spruce budworm were projected using simulations of a global circulation model for the period 2081–2100 where CO2 concentrations reach a maximum of approximately 550 ppm. Future outbreaks are predicted to be an average of approximately 6 years longer with an average of 15% greater defoliation. The methodology is described and the potential effects of climate change on landscape-scale outbreaks of the insect are discussed.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Apps MJ, Price DT (1996) Introduction. In: Apps MJ, Price DT (eds) Forest ecosystems, forest management and the global carbon cycle. Springer, Heidelberg, Germany, pp 19–24Google Scholar
  2. Belyea RM (1952) Death and deterioration of balsam fir weakened by spruce budworm defoliation in Ontario. Part II. An assessment of the role of associated insect species in the death of severely weakened trees. J For 50:729–738Google Scholar
  3. Besag J, Clifford P (1989) Generalized Monte Carlo significance tests. Biometrika 76:633–642CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Blais JR (1968) Regional variation in susceptibility of eastern North American forests to budworm attack based on history of outbreaks. For Chron 44:17–23Google Scholar
  5. Blais JR (1983) Trends in the frequency, extent, and severity of spruce budworm outbreaks in Eastern Canada. Can J For Res 13:539–547CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Borcard D, Legendre P, Drapeau P (1992) Partialling out the spatial component of ecological variation. Ecology 73:1045–1055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Boulanger Y, Arsenault D (2004) Spruce budworm outbreaks in Eastern Quebec over the last 450 years. Can J For Res 34:1035–1043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Brasseur GP, Prinn RG, Pszenny AP (2003) Atmospheric chemistry in a changing world: an integration and synthesis of a decade of tropospheric chemistry research. Springer, New York, USA, p 300Google Scholar
  9. Candau J-N, Fleming RA, Hopkin A (1998) Spatiotemporal patterns of large-scale defoliation caused by the spruce budworm in Ontario since 1941. Can J For Res 28:1733–1741CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Cappuccino N, Lavertu D, Bergeron Y, Régnière J (1998) Spruce budworm impact, abundance and parasitism rate in a patchy landscape. Oecologia 114:236–242CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Cofer WRI, Winstead EL, Stocks BJ, Cahoon DR, Goldammer JG, Levine JS (1996) Composition of smoke from North American boreal forest fires. In: Goldammer JG, Furyaev VV (eds) Fire in ecosystems of boreal Eurasia. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 465–475Google Scholar
  12. Davis AJ, Jenkinson LS, Lawton JH, Shorrocks B, Wood S (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391:783–786CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Deslauriers A, Morin H, Urbinati C, Carrer M (2003) Daily weather responses of balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) stem radius increment from dendrometer analysis in the boreal forests of Québec (Canada). Trees 17:477–484Google Scholar
  14. Dunne T, Leopold LB (1978) Water in environmental planning. Freeman, San Francisco, p 818Google Scholar
  15. Elliott KR (1960) A history of recent infestations of the spruce budworm in North-Western Ontario, and an estimate of resultant timber losses. For Chron 36:61–82Google Scholar
  16. Elliott NC, Simmons GA, Draper RJ (1986) Adult emergence and activity patterns of parasites of early instar jack pine budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Environ Entomol 15:409–416Google Scholar
  17. ESRI (2006) ‘ARC-Info ver. 9.2.’ Redlands, CAGoogle Scholar
  18. Eyre FH, Ostrom CE (1965) Silvics of forest trees of the United States. Agriculture handbook. No. 271, United States Department of Agriculture, Forest ServiceGoogle Scholar
  19. Fleming RA (1996) A mechanistic perspective of possible influences of climate change on defoliating insects in North America’s boreal forest. Silva Fenn 30:281–294Google Scholar
  20. Fleming RA (2000) Climate change and insect disturbance regimes in Canada’s boreal forests. World Resour Rev 12:520–554Google Scholar
  21. Fleming RA, Shoemaker CA, Stedinger JR (1984) An assessment of the impact of large scale spraying operations on the regional dynamics of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) populations. Can Entomol 116:633–644Google Scholar
  22. Fleming RA, Candau J-N, McAlpine RS (2002) Landscape-scale analysis of interactions between insect defoliation and forest fire in Central Canada. Clim Change 55:251–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. Gray DR (1994) Gypsy moth development – a model of phenological events. PhD Dissertation. Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VAGoogle Scholar
  24. Gray DR, MacKinnon WE (2007) Historical spruce budworm defoliation records adjusted for insecticide spraying in New Brunswick from 1965–1992. J Acadian Entomol Soc 3:1–6Google Scholar
  25. Gray SL, Power K (1997) Canada’s forest inventory 1991: the 1994 version – technical supplement. Information Report. BC-X-363, Natural Resouces Canada, Canadian Forest Service – Pacific Forestry CentreGoogle Scholar
  26. Gray DR, Régnière J, Boulet B (1999) Analysis and use of historical patterns of spruce budworm defoliation to forecast outbreak patterns in Quebec. For Ecol Manag 127:217–231CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Greenbank DO (1956) The role of climate and dispersal in the inititiation of outbreaks of the spruce budworm in New Brunswick. 1. The role of climate. Can J Zool 34:453–476CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Greenbank DO (1963) Host species and the spruce budworm. Mem Entomol Soc Can 31:219–223Google Scholar
  29. Greenbank DO, Schaefer GW, Rainey RC (1980) Spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) moth flight and dispersal: new understanding from canopy observations, radar, and aircraft. Mem Entomol Soc Can 110:1–49Google Scholar
  30. Hall JP, Moody BH (1994) Forest depletions caused by insects and diseases in Canada 1982–1987. Canadian Forest Service Information Report. ST-X-8Google Scholar
  31. Hardy Y, Lafond A, Hamel L (1983) The epidemiology of the current spruce budworm outbreak in Quebec. For Sci 29:715–725Google Scholar
  32. Hardy Y, Mainville M, Schmitt DM (1986) An atlas of spruce budworm defoliation in eastern North America, 1938–1980. Miscellaneous Publication 1449, United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  33. Harlow WM, Harrar ES, White FM (1979) Textbook of dendrology. McGraw-Hill, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  34. Harvey GT (1983) Environmental and genetic effects on mean egg weight in spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Can Entomol 115:1109–1117Google Scholar
  35. Huber JT, Eveleigh ES, Pollock S, McCarthy P (1996) The chalcidoid parasitoids and hyperparasitoids (Hymenoptera: Chalcidoidea) of Choristoneura species (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in America North of Mexico. Can Entomol 128:1167–1220Google Scholar
  36. Ives WGH (1974) Weather and outbreaks of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Information Report. NOR-X-118, Department of the Environment, Canadian Forestry Service – Northern Forest Research CentreGoogle Scholar
  37. Kemp WP (1978) The influence of stand factors on parasitism of spruce budworm eggs by Trichogramma minutum. Environ Model Softw 7:685–688Google Scholar
  38. Kettela EG (1995) Insect control in New Brunswick, 1974–1989. In: Armstrong JA, Ives WGH (eds) Forest insect pests in Canada. Natural Resources Canada – Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, ON, Canada, pp 655–665Google Scholar
  39. Kurz WA, Apps MJ (1999) A 70-year retrospective analysis of carbon fluxes in the Canadian forest sector. Ecol Appl 9:526–547CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Lekas TM, MacDougal RG, MacLean DA, Thompson RG (1990) Seasonal trends and effects of temperature and rainfall on stem electrical capacitance of spruce and fir trees. Can J For Res 20:970–977CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Lepš J, Šmilauer P (2003) Multivariate analysis of ecological data using CANOCO. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p 269Google Scholar
  42. Lysyk TJ (1990) Relationships between spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) egg mass density and resultant defoliation of balsam fir and white spruce. Can Entomol 122:253–262Google Scholar
  43. Lysyk TJ, Nealis VG (1988) Temperature requirements for development fo the jack pine budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and two of its parasitoids (Hymenoptera). J Econ Entomol 81:1045–1051Google Scholar
  44. MacLean DA, MacKinnon WE (1996) Accuracy of aerial sketch-mapping estimates of spruce budworm defoliation in New Brunswick. Can J For Res 26:2099–2108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  45. MacLean DA, Erdle TA, MacKinnon WE, Porter KB, Beaton KP, Cormier G, Morehouse S, Budd M (2001) The spruce budworm decision support system: forest protection planning to sustain long-term wood supply. Can J For Res 31:1742–1757CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  46. Miller CA (1977) The feeding impact of spruce budworm on balsam fir. Can J For Res 7:76–84CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Morris RF (1963) Foliage depletion and the spruce budworm. Mem Entomol Soc Can 31:223–227Google Scholar
  48. Murray FW (1967) On the computation of saturation vapor pressure. J Appl Meteorol 6:203–204CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  49. Nealis VG (1988) Weather and the ecology of Apanteles fumiferanae Vier. (Hymenoptera: Braconidae). Mem Entomol Soc Can 146:57–70Google Scholar
  50. Nealis VG, Fraser S (1988) Rate of development, reproduction, and mass-rearing of Apanteles fumiferanae Vier. (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) under controlled conditions. Can Entomol 120:197–204Google Scholar
  51. Nealis VG, Régnière J (2004) Insect-host relationships influencing disturbance by the spruce budworm in a boreal mixedwood forest. Can J For Res 34:1870–1882CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Nyrop JP, Simmons GA (1986) Temporal and spatial activity patterns of an adult parasitoid, Glypta fumiferanae (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae), and their influence on parasitism. Environ Entomol 15:481–487Google Scholar
  53. Pilon JG, Blais JR (1961) Weather and outbreaks of the spruce budworm in the province of Quebec from 1939 to 1956. Can Entomol 63:118–123Google Scholar
  54. Régnière J (1996) Generalized approach to landscape-wide seasonal forecasting with temperature-driven simulation models. Environ Entomol 25:869–881Google Scholar
  55. Régnière J, Bolstad P (1994) Statistical simulation of daily air temperature patterns in eastern North America to forecast seasonal events in insect pest management. Environ Entomol 23:1368–1380Google Scholar
  56. Régnière J, Duval P (1998) Overwintering mortality of spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), populations under field conditions. Can Entomol 130:13–26CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. Régnière J, You M (1991) A simulation model of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) feeding on balsam fir and white spruce. Ecol Model 54:277–297CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  58. Riihimäki J, Kaitaniemi P, Koricheva J (2005) Testing the enemies hypothesis in forest stands: the important role of tree species composition. Oecologia 142:90–97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  59. Roberts EA, Ravlin FW, Fleischer SJ (1993) Spatial data representation for integrated pest management programs. Am Entomol 39:92–107Google Scholar
  60. Royama T (1984) Population dynamics of the spruce budworm. Ecol Monogr 54:429–462CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  61. Royama T (1992) Analytical population ecology. Chapman & Hall, London, UK, p 371Google Scholar
  62. Royama T, MacKinnon WE, Kettela EG, Carter NE, Hartling LK (2005) Analysis of spruce budworm outbreak cycles in New Brunswick, Canada, since 1952. Ecology 86:1212–1224CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  63. Running SW, Nemani RR, Hungerford RD (1987) Extrapolation of synoptic meteorological data in mountainous terrain and its use for simulating forest evapotranspiration and photosynthesis. Can J For Res 17:472–483CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Sanders CJ, Wallace DR, Lucuik GS (1978) Flight activity of female eastern spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) at constant temperatures in the laboratory. Can Entomol 110:627–632CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. SAS Institute (1999) SAS/STAT® user’s guide, version 8. SAS, Cary, NC, p 3884Google Scholar
  66. Simmons GA, Leonard DE, Chen CW (1975) Influence of tree species density and composition on parasitism of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana. Environ Entomol 4:832–836Google Scholar
  67. Smitley DR, Bauer LS, Hajek AE, Sapio FJ, Humber RA (1995) Introduction and establishment of Entomophaga maimaiga, a fungal pathogen of gypsy moth (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) in Michigan. Environ Entomol 24:1685–1695Google Scholar
  68. Sterner TE, Davidson AG (1982) Forest insect and disease conditions in Canada, 1981. Canadian Forest Service, Ottawa, ONGoogle Scholar
  69. Swaine JM, Craighead FC (1924) Studies on the spruce budworm (Cacoecia fumiferana Clem.). Part I. A general account of the outbreaks, injury and associated insects. Technical Bulletin. 37, Department of Forestry, OttawaGoogle Scholar
  70. ter Braak CJF (1986) Canonical correspondence analysis: a new eigenvector technique for multivariate direct gradient analysis. Ecology 67:1167–1179CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. ter Braak CJF (1988) Partial canonical correspondence analysis. In: Bock HH (ed) Classification and related methods of data analysis. North Holland, Amsterdam, pp 551–558Google Scholar
  72. ter Braak CJF (1994) Canonical community ordination. Part I: Basic theory and linear methods. Ecoscience 1:127–140Google Scholar
  73. ter Braak CJF, Looman CWN (1994) Biplots in reduced-rank regression. Biom J 36:983–1003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  74. ter Braak CJF, Šmilauer P (2002) Canoco reference manual and CanoDraw for Windows user’s guide: software for canonical community ordination (version 4.5). in Microcomputer Power, Ithaca, NYGoogle Scholar
  75. Thireau J-C, Régnière J (1995) Development, reproduction, voltinism and host synchrony of Meteorus trachynotus with its host Choristoneura fumiferana and C. rosaceana. Entomol Exp Appl 76:67–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  76. Thomas CD, Bodsworth EJ, Wilson RJ, Simmons AD, Davies ZG, Musche M, Conradt L (2001) Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins. Nature 411:577–581CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  77. Volney WJA, Fleming RA (2000) Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82:283–294CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  78. Weber JD, Volney WJA, SJR (1999) Intrinsic developmental rate of spruce budworm (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) across a gradient of latitude. Environ Entomol 28:224–232Google Scholar
  79. Wellington WG (1949a) The effects of temperature and moisture upon the behaviour of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). I. The relative importance of graded temperatures and rates of evaporation in producing aggregations of larvae. Sci Agric 29:201–215Google Scholar
  80. Wellington WG (1949b) The effects of temperature and moisture upon the behaviour of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). II. The responses of larvae to gradients of evaporation. Sci Agric 29:216–229Google Scholar
  81. Wellington WG, Fettes JJ, Turner KB, Belyea RM (1950) Physical and biological indicators of the development of outbreaks of the spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae). Can J Res Dev 28:308–331Google Scholar
  82. Williams DW, Liebhold AM (2000) Spatial synchrony of spruce budworm outbreaks in eastern North America. Ecology 81:2753–2766CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  83. Wilson GG (1974) The effects of temperature and ultraviolet radiation on the infection of Choristoneura fumiferana and Malacosoma pluviale by a microsporidian parasite, Nosema(Perezia) fumiferanae (Thom.). Can J Zool 52:59–63CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Natural Resources CanadaCanadian Forest Service – Atlantic Forestry CentreFrederictonCanada

Personalised recommendations