Climatic Change

, Volume 86, Issue 3–4, pp 425–440 | Cite as

Assessing the impact of climate change on representative field crops in Israeli agriculture: a case study of wheat and cotton

  • David HaimEmail author
  • Mordechai Shechter
  • Pedro Berliner


Climate changes, associated with accumulation of greenhouse gases, are expected to have a profound influence on agricultural sustainability in Israel, a semi-arid area characterized by a cold wet winter and a dry warm summer. Accordingly this study explored economic aspects of agricultural production under projected climate-change scenarios by the “production function” approach, as applied to two representative crops: wheat, as the major crop grown in Israel’s dry southern region, and cotton, representing the more humid climate in the north. Adjusting outputs of the global climate model HadCM3 to the specific research locations, we generated projections for 2070–2100 temperatures and precipitations for two climate change scenarios. Results for wheat vary among climate scenarios; net revenues become negative under the severe scenario (change from −145 to −273%), but may increase under the moderate one (−43 to +35%), depending on nitrogen applied to the crop. Distribution of rain events was found to play a major role in determining yields. By contrast, under both scenarios cotton experiences a considerable decrease in yield with significant economic losses (−240 and −173% in A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively). Additional irrigation and nitrogen may reduce farming losses, unlike changes in seeding dates.


Wheat Yield Cotton Yield Production Function Approach Irrigate Cotton Additional Irrigation 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. Adams RM, Rosenzweig C, Peart RM, Ritchie JT, McCarl BA, Glyer DJ, Curry BR, Jones JW, Boote KJ, Allen JH Jr (1990) Global climate change and U.S. agriculture. Nature 345(6272):219–224CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Adams RM, Fleming RA, Chang C, McCarl B, Rosenzweig C (1995) A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change on US agriculture. Clim Change 30:147–167CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Adams RM, McCarl BA, Segerson K, Rosenzweig C, Bryant KJ, Dixon BL, Conner R, Evenson RE, Ojima D (1999) Economic effects of climate changes on U.S. agriculture. In: Mendelsohn R, Neuman JE (eds) The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 18–55Google Scholar
  4. Adams RM, Houston LL, McCarl BA, Tiscareno LM, Matus GJ, Weiher RF (2003) The benefits to Mexican agriculture of an El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) early warming system. Agric For Meteorol 115:183–194CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Amir J, Krikun J, Orion D, Putter J, Klitman S (1991) Wheat production in an arid environment. 1. Water use efficiency, as affected by management practices. Field Crops Res 27(4):351–364CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Amthor JS (2001) Effects of atmospheric CO2 concentration on wheat yield: review of results from experiments using various approaches to control CO2 concentration. Field Crops Res 73:1–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Doherty RM, Mearns LO, Reddy KR, Downton MW, McDaniel L (2003) Spatial scale effects of climate scenarios on simulated cotton production in the southeastern U.S.A. Clim Change 60:99–129CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Doorenbos J, Pruitt O (1977) Guidelines for predicting crop water requirements, FAO Irrigation and Drainage, Paper No. 24Google Scholar
  9. Gordon C, Cooper C, Senior CA, Banks H, Gregory JM, Johns TC, Mitchell JFB, Wood RA (2000) The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Without Flux Adjustments. Clim Dyn 16:147–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Haruvy N (1998) Wastewater reuse – regional and economic considerations. Resour Conserv Recycl 23:57–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Hunsaker JD, Kimball AB, Pinter JP Jr, Wall WG, LaMorte LR, Adamsen JF, Leavitt WS, Thompson LT, Matthias DA, Brooks JT (2000) CO2 enrichment and soil nitrogen effects on wheat evapotranspiration and water use efficiency. Agric For Meteorol 104:85–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Iglesias A, Rosenzweig C, Pereira D (2000) Agricultural impacts of climate change in Spain: developing tools for a spatial analysis. Glob Environ Change 10:69–80CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. IPCC (2000) Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. Special report on emission scenarios. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  14. Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, Working Group I (IPCC-WGI): 2001, Climate change 2001 the Third Assessment Report: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  15. Kadishi N, Kan I, Zeitouni N (2005) Impacts of changes in annual rainfall distribution patterns on agriculture in Israel. Working Paper, Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center, Haifa University, HaifaGoogle Scholar
  16. Korentajer L, Berliner PR (1988) Effects of moisture stress on nitrogen fertilizer response in dryland wheat. Agron J 80:977–981Google Scholar
  17. Korentajer L, Berliner PR, Dijkhuis FJ, Van Zyl J (1989) Use of climatic data for estimating nitrogen fertilizer requirements of dryland wheat. J Agric Sci 113:131–137CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Lawlor DW, Mitchell ACR (2000) Crop ecosystem responses to climatic change: wheat. In: Reddy KR, Hodges HF (eds) Climate change and global crop productivity. CAB International, UK, pp. 57–79Google Scholar
  19. Marani A, Cardon GE, Phene CJ (1992a) CALGOS, a version of GOSSYM adapted for irrigated cotton. I. Drip irrigation, soil water transport and root growth. In: Proceedings Beltwide Cotton Conference, National Cotton Council, Memphis (TN), pp.1352–1357Google Scholar
  20. Marani A, Cardon GE, Phene CJ (1992b) CALGOS, a version of GOSSYM Adapted for irrigated cotton. II. Leaf water potential and the effect of water stress. In: Proceedings Beltwide Cotton Conference, National Cotton Council, Memphis (TN), pp. 1358–1360Google Scholar
  21. Marani A, Cardon GE, Phene CJ (1992c) CALGOS, a version of GOSSYM adapted for irrigated cotton. III. Leaf and boll growth routines. In: Proceedings Beltwide Cotton Conference, National Cotton Council, Memphis (TN), pp. 1361–1363Google Scholar
  22. Marani A, Hutmacher RB, Phene CJ (1993) Validation of CALGOS simulation of leaf water potential in drip irrigated cotton. In: Proceedings Beltwide Cotton Conference, National Cotton Council, Memphis (TN), pp. 1225–1228Google Scholar
  23. Mauney JR, Kimball BA, Pinter PJ Jr, LaMorte RL, Lewin KF, Nagy J, Hendrey GR (1994) Growth and yield of cotton in response to a Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) environment. Agric For Meteorol 70:49–67CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  24. Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus WD, Shaw D (1994) The Impact of Global Warning on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis, Am Econ Rev 84:754–771Google Scholar
  25. Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D (1999) The impact of climate variation on U.S. agriculture. In: Mendelsohn R, Neuman JE (eds) The impact of climate change on the United States economy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 55–74Google Scholar
  26. Proffitt APB, Berliner PR, Oosterhuis DM (1985) A comparative study of root distribution and water extraction efficiency by wheat grown under high and low frequency irrigation. Agron J 77:655–662CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Reddy VR, Reddy KR, Hodges HF (1995) Carbon dioxide enrichment and temperature effects on cotton canopy photosynthesis, and water-use efficiency. Field Crops Res 41:13–23CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Reddy KR, Robana RR, Hodges HF, Liu XJ, McKinion MJ (1998) Interactions of CO2 enrichment and temperature on cotton growth and leaf characteristics. Environ Exp Bot 39:117–129CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  29. Reddy KR, Hodges HF, McKinion J (2000) Impacts of climate change on cotton production: a south-central assessment, Presented at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, ColoradoGoogle Scholar
  30. Reddy KR, Hodges HF, McKinion J (2001) Impacts of climate change on cotton production, South-Central Region Annual Progress Report, National Institute for Glob Environ Change, U.S.A.Google Scholar
  31. Reyenga PJ, Howden SM, Meinke H, Hall WB (2001) Global change impacts on wheat production along an environmental gradient in South Australia. Environ Int 27:195–200CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Rosenzweig C, Tubiello FN (1996) Effects of changes in minimum and maximum temperature on wheat yields in the central U.S.A. simulation study. Agric For Meteorol 80:215–230CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Rosenzweig C, Tubiello FN (1997) Impacts of global climate change on Mediterranean agriculture: current methodologies and future directions. Mitig Adapt Strategies Glob Chang 1:219–232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  34. Sanghi A, Mendelsohn R, Dinar A (1998) The climate sensitivity of Indian Agriculture. In: Dinar A, Mendelsohn R, Everson R, Parikh J, Sanghi A, Kumar K, McKinsey J, Lonergan S (eds) Measuring the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. World Bank Publications, Washington D.C.Google Scholar
  35. Schutz M, Fangmeier A (2001) Growth and yield responses of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum Minaret) to elevated CO2 and water limitation. Environ Pollut 114:187–194CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Semenov MA, Barrow EM (1997) Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Clim Change 35:397–414CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Shimshi D, Kafkafi U (1978) “The effect of supplemental irrigation and nitrogen fertilization on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)”. Irrig Sci 1:27–38CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  38. Solow AR, Adams RF, Bryant KJ, Legler DM, O’brien JJ, McCarl BA, Nayda W, Weiher R (1998) The value of improved ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. Clim Change 39:47–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Turner NC (1997) Further progress in crop water relations, Adv Agron 58:293–338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Yates DN, Strzepek KM (1998) An assessment of integrated climate change impacts on the agricultural economy of Egypt. Clim Change 38:261–287CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Yehoshua N, Shechter M (2003) Climate change and agriculture: an Israeli perspective. In: Giupponi C, Shechter M (eds) Climate change in the Mediterranean: socio-economic perspectives of impacts, vulnerability and adaptation. Edward Elgar, CheltenhamGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • David Haim
    • 1
    Email author
  • Mordechai Shechter
    • 1
  • Pedro Berliner
    • 2
  1. 1.Natural Resource & Environmental Research CenterUniversity of HaifaHaifaIsrael
  2. 2.Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert ResearchBen-Gurion University of the NegevSede Boqer CampusIsrael

Personalised recommendations