Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Exceptional drought events over eastern China during the last five centuries

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Climate extremes, particularly the droughts sustaining over a prolonged period and affecting extended area (defined as “exceptional drought events”), can have long-lasting effects on economic and social activities. Here we use the Chinese drought/flood proxy data of the past five hundred years to identify the cases of exceptional drought events over eastern China (east of 105°E), and to study their spatial patterns and temporal evolutions. The associated circulations for the contemporary case are analyzed using available meteorological data. Possible linkage of these cases to climatic forcing and natural climate events is also explored. After considering the intensity, duration, and spatial coverage, we identified three exceptional drought events, which occurred in 1586–1589, 1638–1641, and 1965–1966 in chronological order. They were the most severe droughts of last five centuries in eastern China, with more than 40% of affected area and the drought center encountered a significant summer rainfall reduction (about 50% or more). These three droughts all developed first in North China (34–40°N), and then either expanded southward or moved to the Yangtze River Valley (27–34°N) and the northern part of the southeastern coastal area (22–27°N). For the 1965–1966 case, the significant reduction of summer precipitation was caused by a weakening of summer monsoon and an anomalous westward and northward displacement of the western Pacific subtropical high. Our analyses also suggest that these three exceptional drought events might be triggered by large volcanic eruptions and amplified by both volcanic eruptions and El Niño events.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing. Nature 426:274–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen MR, Ingram WJ (2002) Constraints on the future changes in climate and the hydrological cycle. Nature 419:224–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bi M (1990) Features and causes of droughts in Northern China in recent 40 years. In Ye D, Huang R (eds) Advances in the disastrous climate research series. Chinese Meteorological Press, Beijing, pp 23–32

    Google Scholar 

  • Bradley RS, Jones PD (eds) (1995) Climate since 1500. Routledge, London

  • Chang C-P, Zhang Y, Li T (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and tropical SSTs: part 1, roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim 13:4310–4325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Changnon SA, Changnon JM, Hewings GD (2001) Losses caused by weather and climate extremes: a national index for the United States. Phys Geogr. 22:1–27

    Google Scholar 

  • Chapman L, Thornes JE (2003) The use of geographical information systems in climatology and meteorology. Prog Phys Geogr 27:313–330

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen TC, Yen MC (1994) Interannual variation of the Indian monsoon simulated with NCAR community model: effect of tropical pacific SST. J Clim 7:1403–1415

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Church JA, White NJ, Arblaster JM (2005) Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content. Nature 438:74–77

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CNMA (Chinese National Meteorological Administration) (1981) Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period. Chinese Cartographic Publishing House, Beijing

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK (1992) Dendroclimatic evidence from Eastern North America. In: Bradley RS, Jones PD (eds) Climate since 1500. Routledge, London, pp 331–348

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook ER, Meko DM, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK (1999) Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J Clim 12:1145–1162

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Das HP (2000) Monitoring the incidence of large-scale drought in India. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought, volume I, a global assessment. Routledge, London, pp 181–195

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding Y (1991) Monsoons over China. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, p 419

    Google Scholar 

  • Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts. Science 289:2068–2074

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fasullo J (2004) A stratified diagnosis of the Indian monsoon—Eurasian snow cover relationship. J Clim 17:1110–1122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu C, Teng T (1988) Climate anomalies in China associated with ENSO. Sci Atmos Sinica (special issue):133–141

  • Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW, Wehner MF (2004) Detection of volcanic influence on global precipitation. Geophys Res Lett 31:L12217. doi:10.1029/2004GL020044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo Q (1985) The variations of summer monsoon in East Asia and the rainfall over China. J Trop Meteorol 1:44–52

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo Q (1994) Monsoon and droughts/floods in China. In: Ding Y (ed) Asian monsoon. China Meteorology Press, Beijing, pp 65–75

    Google Scholar 

  • Guo Q, Cai J, Shao X, Sha W (2004) Studies on the variations of East Asian summer monsoon during A.D. 1873–2000. Chin J Atmos Sci 28:206–215

    Google Scholar 

  • Hahn DG, Schukla J (1976) An apparent relationship between Eurasian snow cover and Indian monsoon rainfall. J Atmos Sci 33:2461–2463

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hayes M, Svoboda M, Wilhite DA (2000) Monitoring drought using the standardized precipitation index. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought, volume I, A global assessment. Routledge, London, pp 168–180

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang R, Wu Y (1989) The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism. Adv Atmos Sci 6:21–32

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2002) Workshop report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Workshop on changes in extreme weather and climate events, Beijing, p 107

  • Jones PD, Mann ME (2004) Climate over past millennia. Rev Geophys 42:1–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karl TR, Koscielny AJ (1982) Drought in the United States: 1895–1981. J Climatol 2:313–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kiladis GN, Sinha SK (1991) ENSO, monsoon and drought in India. In: Glantz M, Katz RW, Nicholls N (eds) Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 431–458

    Google Scholar 

  • Lambert FH, Gillett NP, Stone DA, Huntingford C (2005) Attribution studies of observed land precipitation changes with nine coupled models. Geophys Res Lett 32:L18704. doi:10.1029/2005GL023654

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K-M, Weng H (2000) Coherent modes of global SST and summer rainfall over China: an assessment of the regional impacts of the 1997–98 El Niño. J Clim 14:1294–1308

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lau K-M, Kim K-M, Yang S (2000) Dynamical and boundary forcing characteristics of regional components of the Asian summer monsoon. J Clim 13:2461–2482

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Q, Yang S, Kousky VE, Higgins RW, Lau K-M, Xie P (2005) Features of cross-pacific climate shown in the variability of China and US precipitation. Int J Climatol 25:1675–1696

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu Y-Q, Ding Y (1992) Influence of El Niño events on weather and climate in China. Acta Meteorol Sin 6:117–131

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Yanai M (2002) Influence of Eurasian spring snow cover on Asian summer rainfall. Int J Climatol 22:1075–1089

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu K-b, Shen C, Louie K-s (2001) A 1000-year history of typhoon landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, reconstructed from Chinese historical documentary records. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 91:453–464

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK (1998) Global scale tmperature patterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries. Nature 392:779–787

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mass CF, Portman DA (1989) Major volcanic eruptions and climate: a critical evaluation. J Clim 2:566–593

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Arblaster JM (1998) The Asian–Australian monsoon and El Niño – southern oscillation in the NCAR climate system model. J Clim 11:1356–1385

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parson JM (1970) Peasant rebellions of the late Ming Dynasty. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson, p 292

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Munot AA, Kothawale DR (1995) Monthly and seasonal rainfall series for all-India homogeneous regions and meteorological subdivisions: 1871–1994. Contributions from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Research Report RR-065, India

  • Philander SGH (1990) El Niño, La Niña, and the southern oscillation. Academic Press, San Diego, p 293

    Google Scholar 

  • Phillips ID, McGregor GR (2001) Western European water vapor – Southwest England rainfall associations. J Hydrometeorol 2:505–524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian W, Hu Q, Zhu Y, Lee D-K (2003) Centennial-scale dry-wet variation in East Asia. Clim Dyn 21:77–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Quinn WH, Neal VT (1995) The historical record of El Niño events. In: Bradley RS, Jones PD (eds) Climate since 1500. Routledge, London, pp 623–648

    Google Scholar 

  • Robock A (2000) Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev Geophys 38:191–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock A (2002) Pinatubo eruption: the climatic aftermath. Science 295:1242–1244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock A, Mao J (1995) The volcanic signal in surface temperature observations. J Clim 8:1086–1103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodzinski W (1979) A history of China, vol. I. Pergamon Press, Oxford, p 469

    Google Scholar 

  • Samel AN, Wang WC, Liang XZ (1999) The monsoon rainband over China and relationships with the Eurasian Circulation. J Clim 12:115–131

    Google Scholar 

  • Shen C, Wang W-C, Gong W, Hao Z (2006) A pacific decadal oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over Eastern China. Geophys Res Lett 33:L03702, doi:10.1029/2005GL024804

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen J, Zhu Z (1982) The intensity of the southwest monsoon and its relationship to the precipitation over the Yangtze river valley. In: Proceeding of symposium on tropical weather in 1980. Science Press, Beijing, pp 120–126

  • Simmonds I, Bi D, Hope P (1999) Atmospheric water vapor flux and its association with rainfall over China in summer. J Clim 12:1353–1367

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slingo JM (1999) The Indian summer monsoon and its variability. In: Navarra A (ed) Beyond El Niño: decadal variability in the climate system. Springer, Berlin, pp 103–118

    Google Scholar 

  • Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK, Blanton DB, Therrell MD, Gay DA (1998) The lost colony and Jamestown droughts. Science 280:564–567

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sun A, Liu X, Gao B (1998) Change trends of extreme climate events in China. Acta Meteorol Sin 12:129–141

    Google Scholar 

  • Svoboda M et al (2002) The drought monitor. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 83:1181–1190

    Google Scholar 

  • Tan X (2003) The study of major droughts in China during the past 500 years. J Disaster Prev Mitig Eng 23:77–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Tan G, Sun Z, Chen H (2003) Diagnosis of summertime floods/droughts and their atmospheric circulation anomalies over North China. Acta Meteorol Sin 17:257–273

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang Z (1988) The reconstruction of climate in historical times for a small area. In: Zhang J (ed) The reconstruction of climate in China for historical times. Science Press, Beijing, pp 10–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao S, Chen L (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. In: Chang CP, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Review in monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, London p 353

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao S, Zhu W, Zhao W (1988) Interannual variability of Meiyu rainfall. Sci Atmos Sinica (special issue):13–21

  • Temple R (2002) The modern world: a joint creation of China and the West. In: Proceedings of the international conference on the review and forecast of Chinese science and technology, Chinese Academy of Engineering and the Chinese Academy of Science, Science Press, Beijing, pp 111–119

  • Thompson LG, Yao T, Mosley-Thompson E, Davis ME, Henderson KA, Lin P-N (2000) A high-resolution millennial record of the South Asian monsoon from Himalayan ice core. Science 289:1916–1919

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Torrence C, Webster P (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO monsoon system. J Clim 12:2679–2690

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vogel C, Laing M, Munnik K (2000) Drought in South Africa, with special reference to the 1980–94 period. In: Wilhite D (ed) Drought, volume 1, a global assessment. Routledge, London, pp 348–366

    Google Scholar 

  • Wakeman FE Jr. (1985) The great enterprise: the Manchu reconstruction of imperial order in seventeenth-century China, vol. 1. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang PK, Zhang D (1991) Reconstruction of the 18th century precipitation of Nanjing, Suzhou and Hangzhou using the clear and rain records. In: Bradley RS, Jones PD (eds) Climate since 1500. Routledge, London, pp 184–209

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang PK, Zhang D (1992) Recent studies of the reconstruction of East Asian monsoon climate in the past using historical literature of China. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:423–445

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Zhao Z (1979) An analysis of historical data of droughts and floods in the last 500 years in China. Acta Geogr Sinica 34:329–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Zhao Z (1981) Droughts and floods in China 1470–1979. In: Wigley TML, Ingram MJ, Farmer G (eds) Climate and history. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 271–288

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang W-C, Portman D, Gong G, Zhang P, Karl T (1992) Beijing summer temperatures since1724. In: Bradley RS, Jones PD (eds) Climate since 1500. Routledge, London, pp 210–223

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Fu X (2000a) Pacific–East Asian teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Ye J, Qian W (2000b) Predictability of drought in China. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought, volume I, a global assessment. Routledge, London, pp 100–112

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Gong D, Zhu J (2001a) Twentieth-century climatic warming in China in the context of the Holocene. Holocene 11:313–321

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang B, Wu R, Lau K-M (2001b) Interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon: contrasts between the Indian and the Western North Pacific–East Asian monsoons. J Clim 14:4073–4090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whetton P, Rutherfurd I (1994) Historical ENSO teleconnections in the Eastern hemisphere. Clim Change 28:221–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wilhite DA (2000) Drought as a natural hazard. In: Wilhite DA (ed) Drought, volume I, a global assessment. Routledge, London, pp 3–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodhouse CA, Overpeck JT (1998) 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 79:2693–2714

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wu R, Wang N (2002) A contrast of the East Asian summer monsoon–ENSO relationship between 1962–1977 and 1978–93. J Clim 15:3266–3279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Q (1986) The abnormal weather of China for summer 1980 and its relationship with the volcanic eruptions of Mount St. Helens. Acta Meteorol Sin 44:426–432

    Google Scholar 

  • Yan Z, Ye D, Wang C (1992) Climatic jumps in the flood/drought historical chronology of Central China. Clim Dyn 6:153–160

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D (1988) The method for reconstruction of the dryness/wetness series in China for the last 500 years and its reliability. In: Zhang J (ed) The reconstruction of climate in China for historical times. Science Press, Beijing, pp 18–31

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Crowley TJ (1989) Historical climate records in China and reconstruction of past climates (1470–1970). J Clim 2:833–849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Xue Z (1994) Relationship between El Niño and precipitation patterns in China since 1500 AD. J Appl Meteorol Sci 5:168–175

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang J, Zhang X, Xu X (1988) Droughts and floods in China during the recent 500 years. In: Zhang J (ed) The reconstruction of climate in China for historical times. Science Press, Beijing, pp 40–55

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Li X, Liang Y (2003a) Supplement of yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500-year period, 1993–2000. J Appl Meteorol Sci 14:379–389

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Tao S, Chen L (2003b) The interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon indices and its association with the pattern of general circulation over East Asia. Acta Meteorol Sin 61:559–568

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Zhang X, Ding Y (1989) The El Niño and the anomalous climate in China. Acta Meteorol Sin 3:471–481

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu K (1934) Monsoon in Southeast Asia and rainfall amount in China. Acta Geogr Sinica 1:1–27

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhou L, Huang R (2003) Research on the characteristics of interdecadal variability of summer climate in China and its possible cause. Climatic and Environmental Research 8:274–290

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhu Y, Yang X (2003) Relationships between pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and climate variability in China. Acta Meteorol Sin 61:641–653

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, 251 Fuller Road, Albany, NY, 12203, USA

    Caiming Shen, Wei-Chyung Wang, Zhixin Hao & Wei Gong

Authors
  1. Caiming Shen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Wei-Chyung Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Zhixin Hao
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Wei Gong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Caiming Shen.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Shen, C., Wang, WC., Hao, Z. et al. Exceptional drought events over eastern China during the last five centuries. Climatic Change 85, 453–471 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9283-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9283-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation