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Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value

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Abstract

We assess the potential benefits from innovative forecasts of the stream flows that replenish reservoirs in the semi-arid state of Ceará, Brazil. Such forecasts have many potential applications. In Ceará, they matter for both water-allocation and participatory-governance issues that echo global debates. Our qualitative analysis, based upon extensive fieldwork with farmers, agencies, politicians and other key actors in the water sector, stresses that forecast value changes as a society shifts. In the case of Ceará, current constraints on the use of these forecasts are likely to be reduced by shifts in water demand, water allocation in the agricultural Jaguaribe Valley, participatory processes for water allocation between this valley and the capital city of Fortaleza, and risk perception. Such changes in the water sector can also have major distributional impacts.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA

    Kenneth Broad

  2. Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA

    Kenneth Broad

  3. Center for Research on Environmental Decisions, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Kenneth Broad & Renzo Taddei

  4. Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Alexander Pfaff

  5. Comitas Institute for Anthropological Study, New York, NY, USA

    Renzo Taddei

  6. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Renzo Taddei, Upmanu Lall & Franciso de Assis de Souza Filho

  7. Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA

    A. Sankarasubramanian

  8. Department of Earth & Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA

    Upmanu Lall

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  1. Kenneth Broad
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  2. Alexander Pfaff
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  3. Renzo Taddei
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  4. A. Sankarasubramanian
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  5. Upmanu Lall
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  6. Franciso de Assis de Souza Filho
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Correspondence to Kenneth Broad.

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Broad, Pfaff and Taddei equally share lead authorship.

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Broad, K., Pfaff, A., Taddei, R. et al. Climate, stream flow prediction and water management in northeast Brazil: societal trends and forecast value. Climatic Change 84, 217–239 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9257-0

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