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Spatially explicit modelling of the impact of climate changes on pasture production in the North Island,New Zealand

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Abstract

To assess the potential impact of climate changes on pasture production in the North Island, New Zealand, eight climate scenarios of increased temperature and increased (or decreased) rainfall were investigated by integrating a polynomial regression model for pasture production with a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results indicated that the climate change scenarios assuming an increase in temperature by 1–2°C and a rainfall change by −20 to +20% would have a very significant impact on pasture production with a predicted pasture production variation from −46.2 to +51.9% compared with the normal climate from 1961–1990. Increased temperature would generally have a positive effect on pasture production in the south and southeast of the North Island, and increased rainfall would have a positive effect in the central, south and southeast of the North Island and a negative effect in the north of the North Island. The interaction of decreased rainfall and increased temperature would have a negative impact for the whole North Island except some central areas with high rainfall. Relevant management practices for coping with potential climate change are discussed.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Natural Resources, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    Baisen Zhang, Ian Valentine & Peter D. Kemp

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  1. Baisen Zhang
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  2. Ian Valentine
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  3. Peter D. Kemp
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Correspondence to Baisen Zhang.

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Zhang, B., Valentine, I. & Kemp, P.D. Spatially explicit modelling of the impact of climate changes on pasture production in the North Island,New Zealand. Climatic Change 84, 203–216 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9245-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9245-4

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