Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Travelling in antique lands: using past famines to develop an adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change

  • Published:
Climatic Change Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper builds on existing theory and proposes a framework to identify vulnerability to climate change in food systems by examining historic cases where common environmental problems caused famine. Cases presented are (1) Ireland’s Potato Famine, (2) El Niño induced famines during the Colonial period, and (3) Ethiopia between 1965 and 1997. Three factors stand out as common in each. Prior to each famine: (1) there were very few ways that people could obtain a living in the worst affected regions; (2) livelihoods in famine stricken communities came to depend on highly specialized agro-ecosystems that were sensitive to environmental change; (3) institutions failed to provide adequate safety nets to protect livelihoods from failure. This analysis suggests that vulnerability to climate change in food systems can be assessed by looking at agro-ecosystems, livelihoods and institutions. Local conditions, however, mean that ways of measuring these three factors will vary from place to place. As a result, direct comparisons are difficult. By conceptualizing these three variables as the axes of a three dimensional “vulnerability” space, it is possible to compare regions and look at trends over time by studying the paths through this “space” as traced by changes at the agro-ecosystem, livelihood, and institutional scale.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abildtrup J, Audsley E, Fekete-Farkas M, Guipponi C, Gylling M, Rosato P, Rounsevell M (2006) Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach. Environ Sci Policy 9:101–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams R, Rosenzweig C, Pearl R, Ritchie J, Mccarl B, Glyer J, Curry R, Jones J, Boote K, Allen L (1990) Global climate change and U.S. Agriculture. Nature 345:219–224

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adams R, Fleming R, Chang C, Mccarl B, Rosenzweig C (1995) A reassessment of the economic effects of global climate change in U.S. Agriculture. Clim Change 30:146–167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adger N, Arnell NW, Tompkins E (2005) Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob Environ Change 15:77–86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Allen Figgis Publishers (ed) (1968) Encyclopaedia of Ireland. Allen Figgis Publishers, Dublin

  • Ali AMS (2006) Rice to shrimp: land use/land cover changes and soil degradation in southwestern Bangladesh. Land Use Policy 23:421–435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Altieri M (1999) The ecological role of biodiversity in agroecosystems. Agric Ecosyst Environ 74:19–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Anon (1970) The Vinland sagas: the Norse discovery of America. Penguin, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Bebbington A (1999) Capitals and capabilities: a framework for analyzing peasant viability, rural livelihoods and poverty. World Dev 27:2021–2044

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bhatia B (1963) Famines in India – 1850–1945. Bombay

  • Billig M (1992) The rationality of growing sugar in Negros. Philipp Stud 40:156–157

    Google Scholar 

  • Blocka S, Webb P (2001) The dynamics of livelihood diversification in post-famine Ethiopia. Food Policy 26:333–350

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bourke A (1993) The visitation of god? The potato and the great Irish famine. Lilliput Press, Dublin

    Google Scholar 

  • Bradshaw B (2004) Plus c’est la meme chose? Questioning crop diversification as a response to agricultural deregulation in Saskatchewan, Canada. J Rural Stud 20:25–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brusco S (1982) The Emilian model: productive decentralisation and social integration. Camb J Econ 6:167–184

    Google Scholar 

  • Buchanan-Smith M, Davies S (1995) Famine early warning and response :the missing link. Intermediate Technology, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (2006) The OFDA/CRED international disaster database. Université Catholique de Louvain. Available via http://www.em-dat.net. Cited 20 April 2006

  • Comenetz J, Caviedes C (2002) Climate variability, political crises, and historical population displacements in Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change Part B. Environ Hazards 4:113–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corbett J (1988) Famine and household coping strategies. World Dev 16:1099–1112

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Daly M (1986) The famine in Ireland. Dublin Historical Association, Dublin

    Google Scholar 

  • Davies S (1996) Adaptable livelihoods: coping with food security in the Malian Sahel. Macmillan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Davis M (2001) Late Victorian holocausts: El Niño famines and the making of the third world. Verso, London

    Google Scholar 

  • del Ninno C, Dorosh PA, Smith LC (2003) Public policy, markets and household coping strategies in Bangladesh: avoiding a food security crisis following the 1998 floods. World Dev 31(7):1221–1238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diamond J (2005) Collapse. Penguin, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Doocy S, Teferra S, Norell D, Burnham G (2005) Credit program outcomes: coping capacity and nutritional status in the food insecure context of Ethiopia. Soc Sci Med 60:2371–2382

    Google Scholar 

  • Dougill AJ, Thomas DSG, Heathwaite AL (1999) Environmental change in the Kalahari: integrated land degradation studies for nonequilibrium dryland environments. Ann Assoc Am Geogr 89:420–442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Elmqvist T, Folke C, Nyström M, Peterson G, Bengtsson J, Walker B (2003) Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1:488–494

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Figge F (2004) Applying portfolio theory to biodiversity. Biodivers Conserv 13:827–849

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer D (1996) The great wave: price revolutions and the rhythm of history. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Food and Agriculture Organization (2006) FAOSTAT. FAO. Available via http://www.fao.org. Cited 20 April 2006

  • Foster RF (1988) Modern Ireland. Penguin, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Fraser E (2002) Urban ecology in Bangkok, Thailand: community participation, urban agriculture and forestry. Environments 30:37–49

    Google Scholar 

  • Fraser E (2003) Social vulnerability and ecological fragility: building bridges between social and natural sciences using the Irish potato famine as a case study. Conservation Ecology 7: [on line]

  • Fraser E (2004) Land tenure and agricultural management: soil conservation on rented and owned fields in southwest British Columbia. Agric Human Values 21:73–79

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser E (2006) International trade, agriculture, and the environment: the effect of freer trade on farm management and sustainable agriculture in southwestern British Columbia, Canada. Agriculture and Human Values 23:271–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser E, Mabee W, Slaymaker O (2003) Mutual dependence, mutual vulnerability: the reflexive relation between society and the environment. Glob Environ Change 13:137–144

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser E, Mabee W, Figge F (2005) A framework for assessing the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks. Futures 37:465–479

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraser E, Dougill AJ, Mabee W, Reed M, Mcapline P (2006) Bottom up and top down: analysis of participatory processes for sustainability indicator identification as a pathway to community empowerment and sustainable environmental management. J Environ Manag 78:114–127

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Glantz M (1991) The use of analogies in forecasting ecological and societal responses to global warming. Environment 33:10–33

    Google Scholar 

  • Gliessman S (1998) Agroecology. Ann Arbour Press, Chelsea

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldstone J (1991) Revolution and rebellion in the early modern world. University of California Press, Berkeley, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Gommes R, Glantz M, Hsu L (2004) Climate and HIV/AIDS: a hotspot analysis for early warning rapid response systems. United Nations Development Programme, Bangkok, Thailand

    Google Scholar 

  • Gregory P, Ingram JSI, Brklacich M (2005) Climate change and food security. Philosophical transactions of the royal society of London. Series B. Biol Sci 360:2139–2148

    Google Scholar 

  • Gunderson L, Holling CS (2002) Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Island Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Haile T (1988) Causes and characteristics of drought in Ethiopia. Ethiop J Agric Sci 10:85–97

    Google Scholar 

  • Hancock G (1985) Ethiopia: the challenge of hunger. Victor Gollancz, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Haug GH, Gunther D, Peterson LC, Sigman DM, Hughen KA, Aeschlimann B (2003) Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization. Science 299:1731–1735

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holden S, Shiferaw B, Pender J (2004) Non-farm income, household welfare, and sustainable land management in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands. Food Policy 29:369–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holling C (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Ann Rev Ecolog Syst 4:1–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holling C (2001) Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems. Ecosystems 4:390–405

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hollis A, Sweetman A (2004) Microfinance and famine: the Irish loan funds during the great famine. World Dev 32L:1509–1523

    Google Scholar 

  • Holmes R (2002) Wellington: the iron duke. Harper Collins, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulme M (2006) ‘gu23wld0098.Dat’ (version 1.0). Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (Contract EPG 1/1/85) Available via http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/datasets/global/. Cited 20 April 2006

  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability – the contribution of working group ii to the third scientific assessment of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kandlikar M, Risbey J (2000) Agricultural impact of climate change: if adaptation is the answer, what is the question? Clim Change 45:529–539

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kasperson J, Kasperson R, Turner B (1995) Regions at risk. United Nations University Press, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Ludden D (1994) Agricultural production and Indian history. Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • McClurg S (2000) Water and the shaping of California. Water Education Foundation and Heyday Books, Berkeley, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Mendelsohn R, Nordhaus W, Shaw D (1994) The impact of global warming on agriculture: a Ricardian analysis. Am Econ Rev 84:753–771

    Google Scholar 

  • Meze-Hausken E (2000) Migration caused by climate change: how vulnerable are people in dryland areas. Mitig Adapt Strategies Glob Chang 5:379–406

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meze-Hausken E (2004) Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in Northern Ethiopia. Clim Res 27:19–31

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mokyr J (1987) Why Ireland starved. G. Allen, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Montreson E, Mazzocchi M (1999) Territorial agriculture and rural development: a case study of Eilia-Rmagna. Eurotools working paper series. University of Verona and University of Bologna, European Commission

  • Nowak R (2002) African droughts “triggered by western pollution.” New Scientist (on line edition)

  • O’Brien K, Leichenko R (2000) Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change with the context of economic globalization. Glob Environ Change 10:221–232

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O’Grada C (1989) The great Irish famine. Macmillan, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Opie J (2000) Ogallala: water for a dry land. University of Nebraska Press, Lincoln, NB

    Google Scholar 

  • Oweis T, Hachum A (2006) Water harvesting and supplemental irrigation for improved water productivity of dry farming systems in West Asia and North. Agric Water Manag 24:57–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paavola J, Adger WN (2006) Fair adaptation to climate change. Ecol Econ 56:594–609

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parry M (1990) Climate change and world agriculture. Earthscan Publications, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Peterson G (2002) Estimating resilience across landscapes. Conservation Ecology 6:[online]

  • Peterson G, Allen C, Holling C (1998) Ecological resilience, biodiversity, and scale. Ecosystems 1:6–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polany K (1944) The great transformation. Beacon, Boston, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Post J (1974) A study in meteorological and trade cycle history: the economic crisis following the Napoleonic war. J Econ Hist 34:315–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pretty J, Ward H (2001) Social capital and the environment. World Dev 29:209–227

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rau B (1991) From feast to famine: official cures and grassroots remedies to Africa’s food crisis. Zed Books, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Reilly J, Graham J (2000) US national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change changing climate and changing agriculture: draft report of the agriculture sector assessment. US Federal Government, Washington, DC

  • Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, Prentice IC, Araujo MB, Arnell NW, Bondeau A, Bugmann H, Carter TR, Gracia CA, De La Vega-Leinert AC, Erhard M, Ewert F, Glendining M, House JI, Kankaanpaa S, Klein RJT, Lavorel S, Lindner M, Metzger MJ, Meyer J, Mitchell TD, Reginster I, Rounsevell M, Sabate S, Sitch S, Smith B, Smith J, Smith P, Skykes MT, Thonicke K, Thuiller W, Tuck G, Zaehle S, Zierl B (2005). Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310:1333–1337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scoones I (1998) Sustainable rural livelihoods: a framework for analysis. Institute of Development Studies, Brighton, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen A (1981) Poverty and famines. Clarendon Press, Oxford

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinebo W (2005) Trade off between yield increase and yield stability in three decades of barley breeding in a tropical highland environment. Field Crops Res 92:35–52

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suhrke A (1993) Pressure points: environmental degradation, migration and conflict. Report from workshop on “Environmental Change, Population Displacement, and Acute Conflict” The University of Toronto and The American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Available via http://www.cmi.no/publications/1993%5Cpressure_points.pdf. Cited 23 May 2006

  • Tainter JA (1988) The collapse of complex societies. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Tilahun K (2006) Analysis of rainfall climate and evapo-transpiration in arid and semi-arid regions of ethiopia using data over the last half a century. J Arid Environ 64:474–487

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tol R, Dowlatabadi H (2001) Vector-borne diseases, development & climate change. Integrated Assessment 2:173–181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tompkins E, Adger N (2005) Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy. Environ Sci Policy 8:562–571

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner BLIi, Kasperson RE, Matson PA, Mccarthy JJ, Corell RW, Christensen L, Eckley N, Kasperson JX, Luers A, Martello ML, Polsky C, Pulsipher A, Schiller A (2003) Science and technology for sustainable development special feature: a framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 100:8074–8079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • United Nations University (2005) Ethiopian country report on ENSO monitoring web page. United Nations. Available via http://www.unu.edu/env/govern/ElNino/CountryReports/inside/ethopia.html. Cited 20 April 2006

  • Unruh J (2004) The dilemma of African agrobiodiversity: Ethiopia and the role of food insecurity in conservation. Working paper from the department of Geography, Indiana University

  • Van Rooy MP (1965) A rainfall anomaly index independent of time and space. NOTOS. Weather Bureau of South Africa 14:43–48

    Google Scholar 

  • Watts M, Bohle H (1993) The space of vulnerability: the causal structure of hunger and famine. Prog Hum Geogr 17:43–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Whelan K (1995) Pre and post-famine landscape change. In: Poirteir C (ed) The Great Irish Famine. Mercier Press, Dublin

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolde-Georgis T, Aweke D, Hagos Y (2001) The case of Ethiopia: reducing the impacts of environmental emergencies through early warning and preparedness. In: Glantz MH (ed) Once burned, twice shy? Lessons learned from the 1997–98 El Niño. United Nations University Press, Tokyo

    Google Scholar 

  • Woodham-Smith C (1962) The great hunger penguin. Books, London

    Google Scholar 

  • World Bank (2006) World development indicators. World Bank. Available via http://www.worldbank.org. Cited 20 April 2006

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Evan D. G. Fraser

Authors
  1. Evan D. G. Fraser
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Evan D. G. Fraser.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Fraser, E.D.G. Travelling in antique lands: using past famines to develop an adaptability/resilience framework to identify food systems vulnerable to climate change. Climatic Change 83, 495–514 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9240-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9240-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation