Skip to main content

Managing the risks of climate thresholds: uncertainties and information needs

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  1. Alley RB, Marotzke J, Nordhaus WD, Overpeck JT, Peteet DM, Pielke RA, Pierrehumbert RT, Rhines PB, Stocker TF, Talley LD, Wallace JM (2003) Abrupt climate change. Science 299(5615):2005–2010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Cubasch U, Meehl GA (2001) Projections of future climate change. In Climate Change 2001 - The scientific basis. Contribution of working group I of the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp 526–582

  3. Fedorov AV, Philander SG (2000) Is El Niño Changing? Science 288(5473):1997–2002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Fichefet T, Poncin C, Goosse H, Huybrechts P, Janssens I, Le Treut H (2003) Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters 30(17), doi:10.1029/2003GL017826

  5. Greenspan A (2004) Risk and uncertainty in monetary policy. American Economic Review 94(2):33–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Gregory JM, Dixon KW, Stouffer RJ, Weaver AJ, Driesschaert E, Eby M, Fichefet T, Hasumi H, Hu A, Jungclaus JH, Kamenkovich IV, Levermann A, Montoya M, Murakami S, Nawrath S, Oka A, Sokolov AP, Thorpe RB (2005) A model intercomparison of changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. Geophysical Research Letters 32(12) Art. No. L12703

  7. Gregory JM, Huybrechts P, Raper SCB (2004) Climatology – Threatened loss of the Greenland ice-sheet. Nature 428(6983):616–616

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Hansen JE (2005) A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference ”? Climatic Change 68(3):269–279

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Hargreaves JC, Annan JD (2006) Using ensemble prediction methods to examine regional climate variation under global warming scenarios. Ocean Modelling 11:174–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Higgins PAT, Vellinga M (2004) Ecosystem responses to abrupt climate change: Teleconnections, scale and the hydrological cycle. Climatic Change 64(1–2):127–142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Hughes TP, Baird AH, Bellwood DR, Card M, Connolly SR, Folke C, Grosberg R, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Jackson JBC, Kleypas J, Lough JM, Marshall P, Nystrom M, Palumbi SR, Pandolfi JM, Rosen B, Roughgarden J (2003) Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301(5635):929–933

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Jensen H (2002) Targeting nominal income growth or inflation? American Economic Review 92(4):928–956

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Keller K, Bolker BM, Bradford DF (2004) Uncertain climate thresholds and optimal economic growth. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 48(1):723–741

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Keller K, Hall MG, Kim SR, Bradford DF, Oppenheimer M (2005) Avoiding dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Climatic Change 73:227–238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Keller K, Tan K, Morel FMM, Bradford DF (2000) Preserving the ocean circulation: implications for climate policy. Climatic Change 47(1–2):17–43

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Knowlton N (2001) The future of coral reefs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 98(10):5419–5425

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Latif M, Roeckner E, Botzet M, Esch M, Haak H, Hagemann S, Jungclaus J, Legutke S, Marsland S, Mikolajewicz U, Mitchell J (2004) Reconstructing, monitoring, and predicting multidecadal-scale changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation with sea surface temperature. Journal of Climate 17(7):1605–1614

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Lempert RJ (2002) A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99:7309–7313

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Lempert RJ, Popper SW, Bankes SC (2003) Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis. RAND corporation, Santa Monica, CA, 187 pp

    Google Scholar 

  20. Link PM, Tol RSJ (2004) Possible economic impacts of a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of Fund. Portuguese Economic Journal 3:99

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. McInerney D, Keller K (2007) Economically optimal risk reduction strategies in the face of uncertain climate thresholds. Climatic Change, this issue, DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9137-z

  22. Nordhaus WD, Popp D (1997) What is the value of scientific knowledge? An application to global warming using the PRICE model. Energy Journal 18(1):1–45

    Google Scholar 

  23. Oppenheimer M (1998) Global warming and the stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature 393:322–325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Oppenheimer M, Alley RB (2004) The West Antarctic ice sheet and long term climate policy – An editorial comment. Climatic Change 64(1–2):1–10

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Philander SG, Fedorov AV (2003) Role of tropics in changing the response to Milankovich forcing some three million years ago. Paleoceanography 18(2)

  26. Rahmstorf S, Zickfeld K (2005) Thermohaline circulation changes: a question of risk assessment – An editorial review essay. Climatic Change 68(1–2):241–247

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Schmittner A, Stocker TF (1999) The stability of the thermohaline circulation in global warming experiments. Journal of Climate 12:1117–1133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Schneider SH, Sarukhan J (2001) Overview of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability to climate change. In Climate Change 2001 – Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II of the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, pp 75–103

  29. Stiglitz JE, Walsh CE (2002) in Economics (Chapter 25) W.W. Norton.

  30. Stocker TF (1999) Abrupt climate changes: From the past to the future – a review. International Journal of Earth Sciences 88:365–374

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Stockes DE (1997) Pasteur's Quadrant. Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC, 196 pp

    Google Scholar 

  32. Timmermann A (1999) Detecting the nonstationary response of ENSO to greenhouse warming. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 56:2313–2325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Timmermann A, Oberhuber J, Bacher A, Esch M, Latif M, Roeckner E (1999) Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature 398(6729):694–697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Tol RSJ (2003) Is the uncertainty about climate change too large for expected cost-benefit analysis? Climatic Change 56(3):265–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. UNFCCC, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) Palais des Nations, Geneva http://www.unfccc.de/index.html

  36. Vaughan DG, Spouge JR (2002) Risk estimation of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Climatic Change 52(1–2):65–91

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Vellinga M, Wood RA (2002) Global climatic impacts of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Climatic Change 54(3):251–267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Vellinga M, Wood RA (2004) Timely detection of anthropogenic change in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Geophysical Research Letters 31(14), Art. No. L14203

  39. Walsh CE (2003) Speed limit policies: the output gap and optimal monetary policy. American Economic Review 93(1):265–278

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Yohe G (1996) Exercises in hedging against extreme consequences of global change and the expected value of information. Global Environmental Change 6:87–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Yohe G, Andronova N, Schlesinger M (2004) To hedge or not to hedge against an uncertain future climate. Science 306:416–417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Yohe G, Schlesinger ME, Andronova NG (2006) Reducing the risk of a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Integrated Assessment Journal 6(1): 57–73

    Google Scholar 

  43. Zickfeld K, Bruckner T (2003) Reducing the Risk of Abrupt Climate Change: Emissions Corridors Preserving the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation. Integrated Assessment 4:106–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Klaus Keller.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Keller, K., Yohe, G. & Schlesinger, M. Managing the risks of climate thresholds: uncertainties and information needs. Climatic Change 91, 5–10 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9114-6

Download citation

Keywords

  • Hedging
  • Geophysical Research Letter
  • Abrupt Climate Change
  • Research Portfolio
  • Risk Management Approach