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Dissecting Future Aerosol Emissions: warming Tendencies and Mitigation Opportunities

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Abstract

Future global emissions of aerosols will play an important role in governing the nature and magnitude of future anthropogenic climate change. We present in this paper a number of future scenarios of emissions of black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) by world region, which we combine with sulfate (SO4) assessed in terms of the emissions of its precursor, SO2. We find that aerosol emissions from the household and industrial sectors are likely to decline along almost all future pathways. Transportation emissions, however, are subject to complex interacting forces that can lead to either increases or decreases. Biomass burning declines in many scenarios, but the Amazon rainforests remain vulnerable if unsustainable economic growth persists. East Asia is the key region for primary aerosols, and trends in China will have a major bearing on the direction and magnitude of releases of BC (expected reductions in the range of 640–1290 Gg), OC (reductions of 520–1900 Gg), and SO2 (ranging from an increase of 21 Tg to a reduction of 30 Tg). Analysis of joint BC, OC, and SO2 emission changes identifies a number of key world regions and economic sectors that could be effectively targeted for aerosol reductions.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Decision and Information Sciences Division, Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, IL, 60439, U.S.A.

    David G. Streets

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  1. David G. Streets
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Correspondence to David G. Streets.

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The submitted manuscript has been created by the University of Chicago as Operator of Argonne National Laboratory (”Argonne“) under Contract No. W–31–109–ENG–38 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The U.S. Government retains for itself, and others acting on its behalf, a paid-up, nonexclusive, irrevocable worldwide license in said article to reproduce, prepare derivative works, distribute copies to the public, and perform publicly and display publicly, by or on behalf of the Government.

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Streets, D.G. Dissecting Future Aerosol Emissions: warming Tendencies and Mitigation Opportunities. Climatic Change 81, 313–330 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9112-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9112-8

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