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Standardized Precipitation Index Reconstructed from Turkish Tree-Ring Widths

Abstract

May–July Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the land area of most of Turkey and some adjoining regions are reconstructed from tree rings for the period 1251–1998. The reconstruction was developed from principal components analysis (PCA) of four Juniperus excelsa chronologies from southwestern and south-central Turkey and is based on reliable and replicable statistical relationships between climate and tree ring growth. The SPI reconstruction shows climate variability on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. The longest period of consecutive drought years in the reconstruction (SPI threshold ≤−1) is 2 yr. These occur in 1607–1608, 1675–1676, and 1907–1908. There are five wet events (SPI threshold ≥+1) of two consecutive years each (1330–1331, 1428–1429, 1503–1504, 1629–1630, and 1913–1914). A 5-yr moving average of the reconstructed SPI shows that two sustained drought periods occurred from the mid to late 1300s and the early to mid 1900s. Both episodes are characterized by low variability.

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Touchan, R., Funkhouser, G., Hughes, M.K. et al. Standardized Precipitation Index Reconstructed from Turkish Tree-Ring Widths. Climatic Change 72, 339–353 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5358-9

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Keywords

  • Principal Component Analysis
  • Turkey
  • Climate Variability
  • Statistical Relationship
  • Tree Ring