Skip to main content
Log in

Mathematical Modeling of the Dynamics of Crisis Situations and Optimization of Capital Relocation Market Management in the Context of Globalization in the World Financial and Economic System

  • Published:
Cybernetics and Systems Analysis Aims and scope

Abstract

The article continues a series of studies analyzing the features of capital relocation (movement) and mathematical modeling of the dynamics of the world financial and economic system (FES) in the context of globalization. Structuring features of capital transfer processes in the context of a modern globalized FES and their impact on the efficiency of the investment portfolio and the economy of donor and recipient countries are considered. The relationship between the dynamic processes of the movement of borrowed capital and the Buffett indicator is established as a characteristic feature of the emergence and development of crises. The conditions have been determined whereby further capital injection, i.e., “flooding the crisis with money,” ceases to be effective.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. J. Tinbergen, “On a method of statistical business-cycle research. A reply (With comment by J. M. Keynes),” Voprosy Ekonomiki, No. 4, 46–59 (2007) https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2007-4-46-59.

  2. R. Frisch, Statistical Confluence Analysis by Means of Complete Regression Systems, Universitetets Okonomiske Institutt, Oslo (1934).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. J. A. Schumpeter, Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process, McGraw-Hill Book Co., New York–Toronto–London (1939).

    Google Scholar 

  4. A. V. Korotayev and S. V. Tsirel, “A spectral analysis of world GDP dynamics: Kondratieff waves, Kuznets swings, Juglar and Kitchin cycles in global economic development, and the 2008–2009 economic crisis,” Structure and Dynamics, Vol. 4, Iss. 1, 3–57 (2010).

  5. V. V. Khilenko, “Mathematical modeling of the effect of “splashing out” and optimization of management of banking and economic systems under globalization conditions,” Cybern. Syst. Analysis, Vol. 54, No. 3, 376–384 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-018-0039-7.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  6. V. V. Khilenko, “Modeling the control effects of the banking system on the functioning of the economy. I. Dynamics and adjustment of crisis situations,” Cybern. Syst. Analysis, Vol. 56, No. 1, 22–28 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-020-00217-w.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  7. V. V. Khilenko, “Modeling the control effects of the banking system on the functioning of the economy. II. Selection and special features of application of optimization algorithms,” Cybern. Syst. Analysis, Vol. 56, No. 5, 718–725 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-020-00290-1.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. V. V. Khilenko, “Modeling the control effects of the banking system on the functioning of the economy. III. calculation and decomposition of models with a stepped boundary layer,” Cybern. Syst. Analysis, Vol. 57. No. 3, 396–402 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-021-00375-5.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. S. Kovzharov, Market News (2014). URL: https://smart-lab.ru/blog/news/181607.php.

  10. D. Šmihula, “Waves of technological innovations and the end of the information revolution,” J. Economics and Intern. Finance, Vol. 2, No. 4, 58–67 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  11. R. Nelson and P. Romer, “Science, economic growth and public policy,” Challenge, Vol. 39, Iss. 1, 9–21 (1996). https://doi.org/10.1080/05775132.1996.11471873.

  12. N. N. Moiseyev, Mathematical Problems of Systems Analysis [in Russian], Nauka, Moscow (1981).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Yu. F. Dolgii and P. G. Surkov, Mathematical Models of Delay Dynamical Systems [in Russian], Izd-vo Ural’skogo Universiteta, Yekaterinburg (2012).

    Google Scholar 

  14. D. B. Kalashnikov, “China in the international capital movements,” World and National Economy, No. 4(53) (2020). URL: https://mirec.mgimo.ru/2020/2020-04/china-int-capital.

  15. “India introduces restrictions on Chinese investments: The reason is named,” April 20 (2020). URL: https://sprotyv.info/news/indiya-vvodit-zhestkie-ogranicheniya-na-investicii-iz-kitaya-nazvana-prichina.

  16. N. N. Liventsev and G. M. Kostyunina, International Capital Movements (Investment Policy of Foreign Countries) [in Russian], Ekonomist, Moscow (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  17. O. B. Pichkov, “USA in world investment processes,” Vestnik Akademii, No. 4, 9–12 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  18. R. H. Thaler, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics [Ukrainian translation], Nash Format, Kyiv (2018).

    Google Scholar 

  19. T. Veblen, The Theory of the Leisure Class: An Economic Study of Institutions, The Macmillan Company, New York (1899).

    Google Scholar 

  20. H. A. Simon, Administrative Behavior: A study of Decision-Making Processes in Administrative Organizations, Macmillan, New York (1947).

    Google Scholar 

  21. “A foreign policy and the global economic crisis: Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relation U.S. Senate,” March 25 (2009). URL: https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/foreign-policy-and-the-global-economic-crisis.

  22. A. G. J. Alexander, W. F. Sharpe, and J. V. Bailey, Fundamentals of Investments, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J. (1990).

    Google Scholar 

  23. A. M. Fujita, P. Krugman, and A. J. Venables, The Spatial Economy: Cities, Regions and International Trade, The MIT Press (2001).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  24. A. S. Blinov, “USA and Russia. Three economic crises. Similarities and differences” (2020). URL: https://aurora.network/articles/1-mirovoy-krizis/75464-ssha-i-rossija-tri-jekonomicheskikh-krizisa-skhodstva-i-razlichija.

  25. A. J. Tobin, “Liquidity preference as behaviour towards risk,” The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 25, Iss. 2, 65–86 (1958). https://doi.org/10.2307/2296205.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. A. H. Markowitz, “Portfolio selection: Efficient diversification of investments,” The J. of Finance. Vol. 7, No. 1, 77–91 (1952).

    Google Scholar 

  27. “Buffet indicator.” URL: https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php.

  28. R. G. Rajan and L. Zingales, Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists: Unleashing the Power of Financial Markets to Create Wealth and Spread Opportunity, Crown Business, New York (2003).

    Google Scholar 

  29. Ch. P. Kindlberger and R. Aliber, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises,Wiley, Hoboken (2005).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  30. “Direct investment position of the United States in Europe from 2000 to 2020.” URL: https://www.statista.com/statistics/188579/united-states-direct-investments-in-europe-since-2000/.

  31. V. V. Khilenko, O. V. Stepanov, I. Kotuliak, and M. Reis, “Optimization of the selection of software elements in control systems with significantly different-speed processes,” Cybern. Syst. Analysis, Vol. 57, No. 2, 185–189 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-021-00342-0.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  32. A. Z. Grishchenko and V. V. Khilenko, “Determining the number of fast and slow components in decomposition of arbitrarily large liner dynamical models,” Cybern. Syst. Analysis, Vol. 27, No. 6, 795–801 (1991).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. M. Overchenko, “It became known who caused the collapse of Bear Stearns in 2008,” URL: https://www.vedomosti.ru/finance/articles/2016/03/29/635573-izvestno-sprovotsiroval-krah-bear-stearns.

  34. Ye. M. Timofeyeva, “Financial market: Out of present to the past and the future,” Modern Economics: Problems and Solutions, Vol. 4, 138–147 (2015). URL: https://meps.econ.vsu.ru/meps/article/view/636.

  35. M. Blaug, Great Economists before Keynes: An Introduction to the Lives and Work of One Hundred Great Economists of the Past, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., Cheltenham–Lyme, N.H. (1997).

  36. F. Modigliani and M. H. Miller, “The cost of capital, corporation finance and the theory of investment,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 48, No. 3, 261–297 (1958).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to V. V. Khilenko.

Additional information

Translated from Kibernetyka ta Systemnyi Analiz, No. 1, January–February, 2022, pp. 122–136.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Khilenko, V.V. Mathematical Modeling of the Dynamics of Crisis Situations and Optimization of Capital Relocation Market Management in the Context of Globalization in the World Financial and Economic System. Cybern Syst Anal 58, 107–117 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-022-00440-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10559-022-00440-7

Keywords

Navigation