Abstract
Rare earth elements (REEs) have become increasingly important because of their relative scarcity and worldwide increasing demand, as well as China’s quasi-monopoly of this market. REEs are virtually not substitutable, and they are essential for a variety of high-tech products and modern key technologies. This has raised serious concerns that China will misuse its dominant position to set export quotas in order to maximize its own profits at the expense of other rare earth user industries (wealth transfer motive). In fact, export restrictions on REEs were the catalyst for the U.S. to lodge a formal complaint against China in 2012 at the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper analyzes possible wealth transfer effects by focusing on export quota announcements (the so-called MOFCOM announcements) by China, and the share price reactions of Chinese REE suppliers, the U.S. REE users, and the rest of the world REE refiners. Overall, we find limited support for the view of a wealth transfer in connection with MOFCOM announcements only when disentangling events prior to and post the initiation of the WTO trial, consistent with the trial triggering changes to China’s REE policy and recent announcement to abolish quotas. We do find, however, that extreme REE price movements have a first-order effect on all companies in the REE industry consistent with recent market trends to enable hedging against REE price volatility.
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Notes
Deng Xiaoping was the “de facto leader” in China from 1979–1997. See Baotou National Rare Earth Hi-Tech Industrial Development Zone (2013).
Premier of the State Council of China, 2003–2013.
A Sino-Foreign Cooperative Joint Venture (CJV) is a joint venture between a Chinese and a foreign company within the territory of China. The Chinese company usually provides the labor, land use rights, and factory buildings; the foreign company is required to contribute the necessary technology and key equipment, as well as capital.
The quotas are as follows: December 27, 2011: 9095 t (L) and 1451 t (H); May 17, 2012: 9500 t (L) and 1190 t (H); August 22, 2012: 8537 t (L) and 1233 t (H); December 28, 2012: 13,561 t (L) and 1938 t (H). L: light rare earth elements; H: heavy rare earth elements; t: tons.
Accessible via https://searchwww.sec.gov/EDGARFSClient/jsp/EDGAR_MainAccess.jsp.
We decompose the sample of the U.S. companies by industry by using Fama–French industry codings based on forty-eight industries obtained from the companies’ SIC codes. The decomposition reveals that only 2.58 % of the sample companies are classified as either “Precious Metals” or “Non-Metallic and Industrial Metal Mining.” This implies that our sample of the U.S. companies consists of firms located further to the end of the supply chain, i.e., REE users. As a robustness check, we excluded these firms, and obtained virtually identical results. The tables are available from the authors upon request. Industry classifications are from Kenneth French’s website: http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/Data_Library/det_48_ind_port.html.
We examined whether the detected extreme price events coincide with the thirteen MOFCOM announcements in Table 1, and find that none of the ± 1.5- or ± 2-standard deviation extreme price events took place at the same time. For ± 1-standard deviation extreme price events, we found there were two MOFCOM announcements two and three days before we recorded the extreme price event. To determine whether those events alter our results, we reran the event studies for the extreme price events defined by ± 1-standard deviation excluding those two events. Our results were virtually the same.
Note that we found no events of extreme price reductions on the lower bound.
In total there are 65 regressions, which is for 13 MOFCOM events times five event windows.
Detailed tables including the coefficients of all control variables are available from the authors upon request.
An enlarged table including the coefficients of the control variables is available in the Online Appendix (see Table OA9).
Note again that the table containing the coefficients of the control variables can be accessed in the online appendix. Please see Table OA9.
Abbreviations
- AR:
-
Abnormal return
- CAR:
-
Cumulative abnormal return
- CAAR:
-
Cumulative average abnormal return
- CD:
-
Compact disk
- Ce:
-
Cerium
- CJV:
-
Cooperative joint venture
- CNY:
-
Chinese yuan
- CRSP:
-
Center for Research in Security Prices
- CSMAR:
-
China Stock Market Trading Database
- Dy:
-
Dysprosium
- Er:
-
Erbium
- etc.:
-
et cetera
- Eu:
-
Europium
- EU:
-
European Union
- EWI:
-
Equally weighted index
- FE:
-
Fixed effects
- FOB:
-
Free on board
- GATT:
-
General agreement on tariffs and trade
- Gd:
-
Gadolinium
- Ho:
-
Holmium
- JV:
-
Joint venture
- Kg:
-
Kilogram
- La:
-
Lanthanum
- Lu:
-
Lutetium
- Na:
-
Not available
- Na:
-
Not applicable
- Nd:
-
Neodymium
- NeFeB:
-
Neodymium iron boron
- Max:
-
Maximum
- Min:
-
Minimum
- MRI:
-
Magnetic resonance imaging
- MOFCOM:
-
Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China
- Nobs:
-
Number of observations
- OLS:
-
Ordinary least squares
- Pr:
-
Praseodymium
- Pm:
-
Promethium
- REE:
-
Rare earth element
- ROE:
-
Return on Equity
- Sc:
-
Scandium
- Sm:
-
Samarium
- SmCo:
-
Samarium cobalt
- Std. Dev.:
-
Standard deviation
- TMR:
-
Technology Metals Research
- T:
-
Metric ton
- Tb:
-
Terbium
- Tm:
-
Thulium
- TV:
-
Television
- U.S.:
-
United States
- USD:
-
U.S. dollar
- USGS:
-
U.S. geological survey
- UWI:
-
Usage-weighted index
- WSJ:
-
Wall street journal
- WTO:
-
World Trade Organization
- Y:
-
Yttrium
- Yb:
-
Ytterbium
- Z:
-
Atomic number
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Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to editors of the special issue “Business Ethics in Greater China” and two anonymous referees for many helpful comments. The authors thank Harald Elsner, Mike Gilroy, Gareth Hatch, Wenxuan Hou, Dudley Kingsnorth, Juliane Proelss, Milena Petrova, Craig Wilson, Mark Schopf, and Heike Schreckenberg, as well as the participants of the Journal of Business Ethics Special Issue Conference on Business Ethics in Greater China: Past, Present, and Future and the 12th INFINITI Conference on International Finance for helpful comments and suggestions. All remaining errors are ours.
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Müller, M., Schweizer, D. & Seiler, V. Wealth Effects of Rare Earth Prices and China’s Rare Earth Elements Policy. J Bus Ethics 138, 627–648 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-015-2773-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-015-2773-3