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Intelligent design and mathematical statistics: a troubled alliance

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Abstract

The explanatory filter is a proposed method to detect design in nature with the aim of refuting Darwinian evolution. The explanatory filter borrows its logical structure from the theory of statistical hypothesis testing but we argue that, when viewed within this context, the filter runs into serious trouble in any interesting biological application. Although the explanatory filter has been extensively criticized from many angles, we present the first rigorous criticism based on the theory of mathematical statistics.

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Notes

  1. This use of the term “complex” is at odds with its usual meaning in mathematics, see (Elsberry and Shallit 2003, 2004; Perakh 2005).

  2. Technically, a rejection region is set in advance and corresponds to a prespecified probability called the significance level. The 1-in-50-billion probability that shows up here is what statisticians call a p-value.

  3. Dembski’s calculation of “perturbation probabilities” is something else as this refers to how much variation that is allowed in the protein assembly and still retain the basic function of the flagellum.

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  1. Mathematics Department, Trinity University, One Trinity Place, San Antonio, TX, 78212-7200, USA

    Peter Olofsson

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  1. Peter Olofsson
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Correspondence to Peter Olofsson.

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Olofsson, P. Intelligent design and mathematical statistics: a troubled alliance. Biol Philos 23, 545–553 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10539-007-9078-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10539-007-9078-6

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