Abstract
Agarwood (Aquilaria malaccensis) is a critically endangered species on the IUCN red list globally. It is highly valued for its aromatic wood, popularly called agar, which has been overexploited in its natural range. The natural habitat of Agarwood is also drastically changing due to anthropogenic activities, and the tree is no longer in existence in the wild except in some intact forest patches. In the Indian East Himalayan region, Agarwood is planted in indigenous agroforestry and communal lands. Here, species distribution modelling (SDM) was used to establish Agarwood’s current and future habitat suitability under two representative climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We implemented an ensemble of five SDM models, including two regression and three machine learning methods, using datasets from 82 locations. The results revealed that of the total area of 269,159 km2 of the Indian East Himalayan region, 2282 km2 is currently highly suitable. However, it is predicted to decrease by 34.28% under RCP4.5 and 14.64% under RCP8.5 by 2050, whereas 44.88% of the highly suitable area would reduce under RCP4.5 and 27.18% under RCP8.5 by 2070. Under the current climate scenario, the state of Assam has a substantial area potentially suitable for Agarwood, representing 99.21% of the state’s land area (2264 km2). However, there will be a tremendous loss of suitable habitats in future climate change scenarios. Our study highlights that precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean temperature of the driest quarter were the most influential bioclimatic variables. In addition, sand, clay content and organic carbon density were critical predictors of the distribution of Agarwood. This study has provided baseline data on the potentially suitable habitat of the species to guide the formulation and implementation of policies and practices for the conservation of Agarwood in the Indian East Himalayan region.
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Department of Science and Technology, Government of India under the research grant DST / CCP/MRDP/189/2019 supported this research.
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AJN, AH, JRD and PCN contributed to the study conception and design. Data collection and analysis were performed by JRD, AH, KG and AJN. AH and JRD wrote the first draft of manuscript. All authors contributed ideas and finalized the manuscript.
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Hazarika, A., Deka, J.R., Nath, P.C. et al. Modelling habitat suitability of the critically endangered Agarwood (Aquilaria malaccensis) in the Indian East Himalayan region. Biodivers Conserv 32, 4787–4803 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02727-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02727-3