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Observed and projected changes in urbanization and nature conservation in a typical fast growing city of Ethiopia, Jimma

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Abstract

Urbanization poses a significant threat to biodiversity, particularly in developing nations characterized by high rural–urban migration and inadequate urban planning that fails to consider nature conservation. Insufficient information on how to effectively integrate urban expansion and nature conservation exacerbates environmental problems and hampers mitigation efforts. In this study, we assessed the expansion of Jimma City, a typical rapidly growing city in Ethiopia, over the past 35 years, projected changes for the next 50 years, and identified priority areas for conservation. Landsat satellite images from 1985 and 2020 were utilized to map major land cover types and quantify temporal changes. We employed a Markov chain model to predict changes over the next 50 years and a GIS-based multi-criteria approach to identify conservation priority areas. Our findings underscore the adverse effect of urban expansion on natural habitats. Over the past three decades, built-up areas expanded by sevenfold (721%; 2227 ha) while croplands expanded by 34% (4155 ha). Conversely, natural habitats experienced significant declines: forest cover declined by 39% (5209 ha), grassland by 20% (655 ha) and wetland by 28% (638 ha). Projecting the current trend over the next 50 years showed built-up areas to further increase by about fourfold (436%, 3565 ha). However, open water, wetland, natural forest, and cropland are predicted to decline by 81% (120 ha), 40% (660 ha), 42% (3455 ha), and 55% (8848 ha), respectively. Given the current rate of population growth and rural–urban migrations, urban expansion appears inevitable. Our study emphasizes the importance of designating at least 9040 ha (28%) of the land within the city and its surroundings as high-priority areas for biodiversity conservation. These areas encompass approximately 95% of the remaining forest remnants, 78% of the wetland area, and 22% of the grassland. It is imperative for urban administrations in developing nations to adopt sound policies, strategies, and planning approaches that support the integration of urban development and nature conservation, with special attention given to the preservation of key biodiversity areas. Such efforts are crucial for fostering inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable cities.

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank everyone who assisted us in weighing conservation priority area selection criteria. Further, we thank the anonymous reviewers for the insightful remarks, which contributed to the improvement of this paper. We also would like to thank Alemu Gonsamo for reviewing the text and offering valuable feedback.

Funding

The Rufford Foundation Small Grant Program (UK) provided financial support for field data collection.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Natural Resource Management, College of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, Jimma University, P.O. Box 307, Jimma, Ethiopia

    Abebayehu Aticho, Abebe Nigussie & Tariku Mekonnen Gutema

  2. Department of Environmental Health Science and Technology, Institute of Health Sciences, Jimma University, P.O. Box 378, Jimma, Ethiopia

    Abebe Beyene

  3. Department of Wildlife and Ecotourism Management, College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Bahir Dar University, P. O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Shimelis Aynalem Zelelew

  4. Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349, Oslo, Norway

    Vegar Bakkestuen

  5. Natural History Museum, University of Oslo, PO Box 1172, Blindern, 0318, Oslo, Norway

    Desalegn Chala

  6. Center for Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World (BIOCHANGE), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark

    Desalegn Chala

  7. Section for Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark

    Desalegn Chala

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  1. Abebayehu Aticho
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Contributions

AA conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis; investigation; data creation, original draft preparation; visualization; funding acquisition; AB, SAZ and AN reviewing and editing, and final approval of the manuscript; TMG conceptualization, methodology, validation, reviewing and editing, and final approval of the manuscript; VB validation, reviewing and editing, and final approval of the manuscript; DC supervision, conceptualization, methodology, validation, reviewing and editing, and final approval of the manuscript. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Abebayehu Aticho.

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Aticho, A., Beyene, A., Zelelew, S.A. et al. Observed and projected changes in urbanization and nature conservation in a typical fast growing city of Ethiopia, Jimma. Biodivers Conserv 32, 4007–4028 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-023-02680-1

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