Abstract
We estimated the potential distribution for 31 amphibian species inhabiting the threatened Austral Yungas under current and future climate projections (2050’s) and assessed the synergistic effects of both climate and land-use changes on the spatio-temporal patterns of species richness. Then, using ZONATION software, we assessed the role of existing protected areas (PAs) in determining the species’ representativeness and identified priority conservation areas where we expect species to persist in the face of these global threats. Overall, we estimated a general decrease in local species richness across ~ 41% of Yungas sites due to the effects of climate changes through the year 2050. Over 60% of species are forecasted to reduce drastically (more than 75%) their distributional ranges. Also, we observed a significant reduction (15.5%) in the proportion of PAs holding the potential distributional areas of species in new climate conditions. Therefore, well-informed decisions to guide conservation strategies are imperative. Our prioritization analyses showed that strategically increasing 0.7% the protection coverage (i.e. 17%, as stipulated in the Aichi targets) there are great opportunities for improving their conservation in the region, reaching on average the 19% of distributions for all species and 32.5% of those threatened and Data Deficient amphibians. Fortunately, the highest diversity of amphibians in the region does not match the places targeted for agriculture expansion in future scenarios. Here, we provided novel evidence about where future conservation efforts should focus to accomplish the long-term conservation of biodiversity in this South American hotspot.
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Acknowledgements
For access to collections we are indebted to M. Vaira; E. Lavilla, G. Scrocchi, and S. Kretzschmar (Fundación Miguel Lillo); J. Faivovich (Museo Bernardino Rivadavia); M. Fabrezi (IBIGEO-Museo de Ciencias Naturales de la Universidad Nacional de Salta). MSAD thanks The Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET-Argentina) to support her with a doctoral fellowship and the bilateral cooperation Grant: CONICET-UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA. We would like to thank M. Vaira and D. Baldo for their commentaries about the species and their useful suggestions in the first draft of the manuscript’s conceptualization. We also thank the three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on previous versions of this manuscript.
Funding
The Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (Argentina) (CONICET) funded MSAD’s work with a doctoral fellowship (Exp. No. 002313/14). MSAD and JMDG were also funded with a bilateral cooperation grant: CONICET-UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA.
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MSAD conceived the idea for the study and compiled the database of available occurrence records. MSAD and DAP-T performed the ecological niche models and future projections, as well as the spatial prioritization analyses. MSAD, KD and DAP-T led the writing of the manuscript, with substantial contributions from all authors.
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Appendix S1. Projected individual distribution models of the 31 amphibian species considered in this study, currently and in 2050 year (under RCP 6.5).
Colors in maps correspond to the post-change predictions of range: new potential distributional areas (green), portions of current distribution that will be inhabitable in the future (blue), and portion of the distributions that are habitable in both present and future scenarios (red). For each species, we showed the MESS calculations for environmental conditions based on M (the training region) transferred to future climate scenarios. The black polygons within future maps represent those sites where one or more environmental variables are outside the range present of the training data, so predictions in those areas should be treated with strong caution (i.e. strict extrapolation by models). (PDF 3593 KB)
Appendix S2. Workflow and recommendations of this research as key guidelines for planning climatically resilient reserves in the Austral Yungas.
The right figure represents a schematic diagram of the methods to: (1) perform the ecological niche models (light blue box), (2) quantify the role of the current protected area system in the amphibian conservation (light green box); and (3) select the priority areas for species conservation in the Yungas (orange box). The left figure shows possible recommendations or/and strategies to be considered for the decision-makers during an eventual systematic conservation planning process in Yungas. (PNG 2510 KB)
Table S1.
List of the 31 amphibian species considered in this study that inhabits the Yungas. For each species, we provided the general information about the habitat type/lifestyle, the global distribution range, the proportion of species range within Yungas, the IUCN category, GBIF’s doi, number of occurrences, bioclimatic variables set (including their percentages of contribution) and parameter settings (feature classes and regularization multiplier values) used for modelling, as well as the performance values (partial ROC and omission rate) for obtained model. (XLSX 21 KB)
Table S2.
List of the type of Protected Areas included in the analysis of priority areas for conserving amphibians in the Yungas. (XLSX 13 KB)
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Andrade-Díaz, M.S., Giraudo, A.R., Marás, G.A. et al. Austral Yungas under future climate and land-use changes scenarios: the importance of protected areas for long-term amphibian conservation. Biodivers Conserv 30, 3335–3357 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02250-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02250-3