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The ‘Goldilocks Zone’ of predation: the level of fox control needed to select predator resistance in a reintroduced mammal in Australia

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Abstract

A large component of the anthropogenic biodiversity crisis is the loss of animal species. In response, there has been significant investment in reintroductions of species to their historical ranges. Predation by native and exotic predators, however, remains a barrier to success. Over the past 200 years, Australia has seen the highest rate of mammal extinction on earth, with mammals within a critical weight range (CWR: 35 g–5.5 kg) most affected due to predation by exotic predators. Populations of some threatened species now exist only in Tasmania, offshore islands, or predator-proof sanctuaries. The next critical step is to return native populations outside of predator-free areas, ‘beyond-the-fence’, on the continental mainland. Given our current inability to completely remove exotic predators from mainland ecosystems, how can we achieve successful mammal reintroductions? A potential solution is to drive adaptation of reintroduced animals towards predator-resistance by exposing them to low levels of predation. We propose the concept of a ‘Goldilocks Zone’—the ‘just right’ levels of predation needed to drive selection for predator-resistant native species, while ensuring population viability. We experimentally reintroduced a mammal, the eastern bettong (Bettongia gaimardi), to mainland Australia, 100 years after its local extinction. Using an intense baiting regime, we reduced the population density of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), the main factor behind the eastern bettong’s extirpation from the continent. Reducing bait take to 15% of previous levels allowed differential survival among bettongs; some surviving under 100 days and others over 450 (~ 4 times longer than some similar trials with related species). Surviving individuals were generally larger at release than those that died earlier, implying selection for larger bettongs. Our results suggest that reducing predation could establish a Goldilocks Zone that could drive selection for bettongs with predator-resistant traits. Our work contributes to a growing body of literature that explores a shift towards harnessing evolutionary principles to combat the challenges posed by animal management and conservation.

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Data availability

Data presented in this manuscript are available upon reasonable request.

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R code used in the analysis in this manuscript will be made available on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge and respect the Ngunnawal people, the traditional custodians of the lands on which this work was undertaken. Thanks to Helen Crisp, Kelly Debono, Fred Ford, Suzie Fowler, Margaret Kitchin, Stuart Jeffress, Brett McNamara, Nick Mooney, Katherine Moseby, Nicki Munro, Glen Saunders, Jim Trappe, and Michelle White for providing advice. Thanks to Ollie Orgill, Lisa Steindler, Kym Birgan, Jason Cummings, Karen Williams, Hannah Waterhouse, and Nicole Hill for assistance with the implementation of the project. Thanks to Ben Phillips, Sarah Legge, Adrian Wayne, Joanne McMillan and Tim Andrewartha for providing helpful and insightful comments on earlier drafts of the manuscript.

Funding

This project was supported by the ACT Government, the Australian National University, The Mulligans Flat—Goorooyarroo Woodland Experiment and the ACT Woodlands and Wetlands Trust. The research also received funding from the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program through the Threatened Species Recovery Hub to support WB and ME. EB was funded by The Woodlands and Wetlands Trust. ME was partly funded by the Japan Society for Promotion of Science (JSPS) as a Postdoctoral Research Fellow (P19084).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, 0200, Australia

    Maldwyn J. Evans, Iain J. Gordon, Jenny Newport & Adrian D. Manning

  2. Department of Ecosystem Studies, Graduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

    Maldwyn J. Evans

  3. Blue Mountains Branch, NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, Govetts Leap Road, Blackheath, NSW, 2785, Australia

    Will G. Batson

  4. Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate; ACT Government, GPO Box 158, Canberra, ACT, 2601, Australia

    Tim Chaseling, Don Fletcher, Michael Harrison, Tom McElroy, Alison Mungoven, Jenny Pierson, Shelley Swain & Claire Wimpenny

  5. The James Hutton Institute, Dundee, DD2 5DA, UK

    Iain J. Gordon

  6. Central Queensland University, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia

    Iain J. Gordon

  7. Land and Water, CSIRO, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia

    Iain J. Gordon

  8. Protected Places Mission, National Environmental Science Program, Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Cairns, QLD, 4870, Australia

    Iain J. Gordon

  9. Woodlands and Wetlands Trust, 7/26 Francis Forde Blvd, Forde, ACT, 2914, Australia

    Emily Belton

  10. Zoo and Wildlife Veterinary Consultancy, 104 North Maleny Rd, North Maleny, QLD, 4552, Australia

    Timothy Portas

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  1. Maldwyn J. Evans
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Contributions

ADM, WB, TC, CW, DF, SS, TE, MH, AM and IJG conceived the study; all authors contributed to fieldwork; ACT Government staff carried out the fox control and monitoring; ME analyzed the data and prepared the original draft manuscript. All authors contributed to revision of this manuscript.

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Correspondence to Maldwyn J. Evans.

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This project was covered by ANU Animal Ethics and Experimentation Committee Protocol A2015/73.

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Communicated by Karen E. Hodges.

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Evans, M.J., Batson, W.G., Gordon, I.J. et al. The ‘Goldilocks Zone’ of predation: the level of fox control needed to select predator resistance in a reintroduced mammal in Australia. Biodivers Conserv 30, 1731–1752 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-021-02166-y

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